Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The short-term recovery momentum observed in China and consumer markets.</li>
<li>The Gen 3 in 4Q23 accounts for about 50% of the production, expected to increase to around 60-70% in 4Q24F.</li>
<li>Expecting to improve quarter by quarter after reaching the bottom in 1Q24F, and the growth is expected to recover to around 20%+ YoY in 2024F.</li>
</ul>


The short-term recovery momentum observed in China and consumer markets.
The Gen 3 in 4Q23 accounts for about 50% of the production, expected to increase to around 60-70% in 4Q24F.
Expecting to improve quarter by quarter after reaching the bottom in 1Q24F, and the growth is expected to recover to around 20%+ YoY in 2024F.


Silergy (6415.TT): Expecting a Seasonal Decline In 1Q24F, and Likely Another Growth Year in 2024F.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Forecasting PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments to increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement"</li>
<li>Server unit shipments declined ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues remained flat, a consequence of higher ASPs associated with AI-accelerated servers</li>
<li>Server shipments will return to growth in 2024, likely +10% YoY. Server ASPs will increase yet again YoY as AI-server mix grows. </li>
</ul>


Forecasting PC &amp; Smartphone unit shipments to increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement"
Server unit shipments declined ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues remained flat, a consequence of higher ASPs associated with AI-accelerated servers
Server shipments will return to growth in 2024, likely +10% YoY. Server ASPs will increase yet again YoY as AI-server mix grows. 


Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

<ul>
<li>The sales in January 2024 were the lowest during the period of 2022-2024, indicating a likely downtrend for the first quarter of 2024.</li>
<li>Demand is expected to be flat or slightly increase in 2Q24F for GlobalWafers, which is encouraging.</li>
<li>The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.</li>
</ul>


The sales in January 2024 were the lowest during the period of 2022-2024, indicating a likely downtrend for the first quarter of 2024.
Demand is expected to be flat or slightly increase in 2Q24F for GlobalWafers, which is encouraging.
The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The supply chain received good news that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> as successfully passed iPhone 16 OLED DRIVER IC (DDIC) qualification.</li>
<li>Novatek's recent alliance with ARM to develop Neoverse V2 is a noteworthy development.</li>
<li>Novatek's 1Q24F forecast remains unchanged, but the outlook for 2024F is likely to show positive growth.</li>
</ul>


The supply chain received good news that Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) as successfully passed iPhone 16 OLED DRIVER IC (DDIC) qualification.
Novatek's recent alliance with ARM to develop Neoverse V2 is a noteworthy development.
Novatek's 1Q24F forecast remains unchanged, but the outlook for 2024F is likely to show positive growth.


Novatek (3034.TT): It Had Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC.

<ul>
<li>The sales of Jan 2024F were the lowest during 2022-2024F, indicating a likely downtrend for 1Q24F.</li>
<li>Demand is expected to remain sluggish in 2Q24F, potentially resulting in decreased raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory in 2Q24F.</li>
<li>The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.</li>
</ul>


The sales of Jan 2024F were the lowest during 2022-2024F, indicating a likely downtrend for 1Q24F.
Demand is expected to remain sluggish in 2Q24F, potentially resulting in decreased raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory in 2Q24F.
The market for 12" raw wafers is expected to have a more stable demand-supply balance, while raw wafers of 8” and smaller sizes could experience reduced demand in 1H24F.


Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Silergy (6415.TT): Expecting a Seasonal Decline In 1Q24F, and Likely Another Growth Year in 2024F.

The first annual profit was turnaround in 4Q23. It's recovery momentum in China and consumer markets now. The growth is expected to recover to 20%+...

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

PC & Smartphone unit shipments will increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement". Server shipments fell ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues...

William Keating

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.

Sales in Jan 2024 hit a low, hinting at a downward trend for 1Q24. GlobalWafers may see flat or slightly increased demand in 2Q24, with 12" wafers...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): It Had Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC.

Novatek's successful qualification for iPhone 16 OLED DDIC and partnership with ARM for Neoverse V2 development signal positive growth in 2024.

Patrick Liao

Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F

Sales of Jan 2024F hit a low, signaling a potential downtrend for 1Q24F. Demand in 2Q24F may decrease raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory. 12"...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Silergy (6415.TT): Expecting a Seasonal Decline In 1Q24F, and Likely Another Growth Year in 2024F.

The first annual profit was turnaround in 4Q23. It's recovery momentum in China and consumer markets now. The growth is expected to recover to 20%+...

Patrick Liao

Semiconductor 2023 Key Indicators In Review, 2024 Forecasts

PC & Smartphone unit shipments will increase 5% YoY on the back on "AI Enablement". Server shipments fell ~20% in 2023 but overall revenues...

William Keating

GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Is a Down Quarter; Anticipating a Much Better Growth Rate in 2025F.

​Sales in Jan 2024 hit a low, hinting at a downward trend for 1Q24. GlobalWafers may see flat or slightly increased demand in 2Q24, with 12" wafers...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): It Had Been Qualified by the IPhone 16 for OLED Driver IC.

​Novatek's successful qualification for iPhone 16 OLED DDIC and partnership with ARM for Neoverse V2 development signal positive growth in 2024.

Patrick Liao

Globalwafers (6488.TT): The Revenue Is Expected to Improve in 2H24F

​Sales of Jan 2024F hit a low, signaling a potential downtrend for 1Q24F. Demand in 2Q24F may decrease raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory. 12"...

Patrick Liao

Sales in Jan 2024 hit a low, hinting at a downward trend for 1Q24. GlobalWafers may see flat or slightly increased demand in 2Q24, with 12" wafers...

Novatek's successful qualification for iPhone 16 OLED DDIC and partnership with ARM for Neoverse V2 development signal positive growth in 2024.

Sales of Jan 2024F hit a low, signaling a potential downtrend for 1Q24F. Demand in 2Q24F may decrease raw wafer demand for Logic and Memory. 12"...