Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's 2022 outlook is bright, but new drama around Intel's possible orders could define the foundry in 2023</li>
<li>IPhone's 2022 modem is currently equipped with Qualcomm’s design but 2023's will be designed by Apple</li>
<li>TSMC's continuously updated technology roadmap shows it as a tech-leader in the foundry space</li>
</ul>


TSMC's 2022 outlook is bright, but new drama around Intel's possible orders could define the foundry in 2023
IPhone's 2022 modem is currently equipped with Qualcomm’s design but 2023's will be designed by Apple
TSMC's continuously updated technology roadmap shows it as a tech-leader in the foundry space


TSMC (TSM.US, 2330.TT): Bright Outlook in 2022

Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.</li>
<li>Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. </li>
<li>Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.</li>
</ul>


DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.


Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> is forecasted to experience slight growth in 3Q24 compared to 2Q24.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> is expected to introduce AI PCs in 2024, while Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) scheduled for this product is anticipated to delivered in 2H25.  </li>
<li>The shipment forecast for the Dimensity 9400 is approximately 5 million sets in 2H24.</li>
</ul>



Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is forecasted to experience slight growth in 3Q24 compared to 2Q24.  

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) is expected to introduce AI PCs in 2024, while Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) scheduled for this product is anticipated to delivered in 2H25.  
The shipment forecast for the Dimensity 9400 is approximately 5 million sets in 2H24.


MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket</li>
<li>Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows</li>
<li>AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket
Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows
AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

<ul>
<li>TSMC: 9.2% Premium -- Spread Fell But Remains Historically High; Short Interest Spiked for ADRs</li>
<li>UMC: Trading at -1.2% Discount -- Still Uncompelling, Wait for Lower Levels</li>
<li>ASE: Drops to 7% Premium -- Could Soon Be at a Level to Go Long</li>
</ul>


TSMC: 9.2% Premium -- Spread Fell But Remains Historically High; Short Interest Spiked for ADRs
UMC: Trading at -1.2% Discount -- Still Uncompelling, Wait for Lower Levels
ASE: Drops to 7% Premium -- Could Soon Be at a Level to Go Long


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Broadcom Inc. designs, develops, and supplies semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. The Company offers storage adapters, controllers, networking processors, motion control encoders, and optical sensors, as well as infrastructure and security software to modernize, optimize, and secure the most complex hybrid environments. Broadcom serves customers worldwide.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

TSMC (TSM.US, 2330.TT): Bright Outlook in 2022

2022 outlook being bright. Intel’s possible orders in 2023. iPhone 2023 will be designed by Apple. TSMC's continuing updated technology roadmap.

Patrick Liao

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

Mediatek Inc expected to see slight growth in 3Q24, while AI PCs are anticipated to delivered in 2H25. The shipment forecast for the Dimensity...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked

In this piece, we provide our long and short levels for each dual-listing spread. Only TSMC's spread offers a compelling opportunity right now in...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (TSM.US, 2330.TT): Bright Outlook in 2022

2022 outlook being bright. Intel’s possible orders in 2023. iPhone 2023 will be designed by Apple. TSMC's continuing updated technology roadmap.

Patrick Liao

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

​Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

MediaTek (2454.TT): 3Q24 Might Grow Slightly QoQ, While AI PCs Could Be Delivered in 2H25.

​Mediatek Inc expected to see slight growth in 3Q24, while AI PCs are anticipated to delivered in 2H25. The shipment forecast for the Dimensity...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

​Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains High; ADR Short Interest Spiked

In this piece, we provide our long and short levels for each dual-listing spread. Only TSMC's spread offers a compelling opportunity right now in...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Mediatek Inc expected to see slight growth in 3Q24, while AI PCs are anticipated to delivered in 2H25. The shipment forecast for the Dimensity...

Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...