Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We have seen a general easing in ADR premiums since end-July, coming down as global markets have fallen.</li>
<li>TSMC's premium is easing down from the highs of June.</li>
<li>UMC and ChipMos ADR discounts appear to be bottoming given their historical range.</li>
</ul>


We have seen a general easing in ADR premiums since end-July, coming down as global markets have fallen.
TSMC's premium is easing down from the highs of June.
UMC and ChipMos ADR discounts appear to be bottoming given their historical range.


Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: ADR Premiums Easing Down With Markets

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Silicon Motion Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MaxLinear's acquisition of Silicon Motion has been abandoned, with both sides threatening arbitration. </li>
<li>It is difficult to understand why the acquisition would have resulted in the synergies projected by management.  The businesses are very different.</li>
<li>Assuming the companies go different ways, expect for SiMo to perform as it has in the past.</li>
</ul>


MaxLinear's acquisition of Silicon Motion has been abandoned, with both sides threatening arbitration. 
It is difficult to understand why the acquisition would have resulted in the synergies projected by management.  The businesses are very different.
Assuming the companies go different ways, expect for SiMo to perform as it has in the past.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Major global semi foundries (TSMC/UMC/VIS/GF/SMIC/HH) reported in-line 2Q23 but mixed 3Q23 outlook on slower demand recovery and ASP/margin pressure.</li><li>Overall, inventory digestion is below expectation in 2Q23 and demand recovery remains weak in 2H23E.</li><li>That said, we believe the worst is behind with global semi sales of -17% YoY in 2Q23, an improvement vs -21% YoY in 1Q23, and we expect sequential sales recovery will continue into 3Q/4Q23E. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Major global semi foundries (TSMC/UMC/VIS/GF/SMIC/HH) reported in-line 2Q23 but mixed 3Q23 outlook on slower demand recovery and ASP/margin pressure.Overall, inventory digestion is below expectation in 2Q23 and demand recovery remains weak in 2H23E.That said, we believe the worst is behind with global semi sales of -17% YoY in 2Q23, an improvement vs -21% YoY in 1Q23, and we expect sequential sales recovery will continue into 3Q/4Q23E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Global Foundry 2Q23 Wrap: Prolonged Inventory Correction

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai beat expecations by nearly 30% but reduced 2023E sales guidance. However, the company's AI server business is expected to take market share and its EV business is developing.</li>
<li>Asustek management provided some clarity on when AI PCs might turn from dream into reality -- 3Q24E is when the company believes they will contribute significantly to sales volume.</li>
<li>Himax reported some improvement in demand from China beleaguered automotive industry and said it expects its dominant global market position for automotive display drivers to continue.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai beat expecations by nearly 30% but reduced 2023E sales guidance. However, the company's AI server business is expected to take market share and its EV business is developing.
Asustek management provided some clarity on when AI PCs might turn from dream into reality -- 3Q24E is when the company believes they will contribute significantly to sales volume.
Himax reported some improvement in demand from China beleaguered automotive industry and said it expects its dominant global market position for automotive display drivers to continue.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai AI Servers Taking Share, Asus Specifies When AI PCs Will Drive Market

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Foundry segment is on track to decline 15% YoY with no prospects of a meaningful H2 recovery</li>
<li>Inventory levels across smartphone, PC and consumer electronic supply chains remain elevated, plagued by lack-lustre end user demand. </li>
<li>At least some of the key players appear to be lowering prices but this is highly unlikely to stimulate end user demand and may actually make things worse</li>
</ul>


Foundry segment is on track to decline 15% YoY with no prospects of a meaningful H2 recovery
Inventory levels across smartphone, PC and consumer electronic supply chains remain elevated, plagued by lack-lustre end user demand. 
At least some of the key players appear to be lowering prices but this is highly unlikely to stimulate end user demand and may actually make things worse


Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: ADR Premiums Easing Down With Markets

TSMC's premium is easing from the highs of June. UMC and ChipMOS ADR discounts appear to be bottoming given their historical range.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What's Next for SiMo?

MaxLinear has called off its planned acquisition of Silicon Motion. Does this indicate future problems for SiMo? Not necessarily.

Jim Handy

China Technology – Global Foundry 2Q23 Wrap: Prolonged Inventory Correction

Major global semi foundries (TSMC/UMC/VIS/GF/SMIC/HH) reported in-line 2Q23 but mixed 3Q23 outlook on slower demand recovery and ASP/margin pressure.

CMB International

Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Foundry heading for 15% YoY decline with no prospect of a meaningful H2 recovery. Some key players may be lowering prices. This is unlikely to...

William Keating

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Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: ADR Premiums Easing Down With Markets

TSMC's premium is easing from the highs of June. UMC and ChipMOS ADR discounts appear to be bottoming given their historical range.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

What's Next for SiMo?

MaxLinear has called off its planned acquisition of Silicon Motion. Does this indicate future problems for SiMo? Not necessarily.

Jim Handy

China Technology – Global Foundry 2Q23 Wrap: Prolonged Inventory Correction

Major global semi foundries (TSMC/UMC/VIS/GF/SMIC/HH) reported in-line 2Q23 but mixed 3Q23 outlook on slower demand recovery and ASP/margin pressure.

CMB International

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai AI Servers Taking Share, Asus Specifies When AI PCs Will Drive Market

Also -- According to media reports, Apple has bought all of TSMC's leading-edge 3nm capacity and may have exclusivity for this 3nm production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Q2'23 Foundry Flounders As Inventory Stubbornly Lingers

Foundry heading for 15% YoY decline with no prospect of a meaningful H2 recovery. Some key players may be lowering prices. This is unlikely to...

William Keating