Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Q2 2020’s selection delivered an average return increase of 54% v’s the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 37.4% over the same period. The GARP-based screen uses a combination of growth and value metrics to identify shares where brokers are forecasting high earnings growth, but which are currently valued at a price that is low relative to their forecast outlook. Whilst Central Banks are providing additional liquidity favouring growth names, our value-based screen is key to delivering positive gains as tapering begins. </p><p>Q2 2021's screen provides 16 key suggestions.  What makes the current selection interesting is the bias towards Taiwan and India on a country basis and Industrials and Healthcare on a sector basis. Also of particular note, Singapore presents one name on this screen.</p>

Q2 2020’s selection delivered an average return increase of 54% v’s the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 37.4% over the same period. The GARP-based screen uses a combination of growth and value metrics to identify shares where brokers are forecasting high earnings growth, but which are currently valued at a price that is low relative to their forecast outlook. Whilst Central Banks are providing additional liquidity favouring growth names, our value-based screen is key to delivering positive gains as tapering begins. Q2 2021's screen provides 16 key suggestions.  What makes the current selection interesting is the bias towards Taiwan and India on a country basis and Industrials and Healthcare on a sector basis. Also of particular note, Singapore presents one name on this screen.

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2021 All Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/735/original/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?1600826665" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160735"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/6h3m1giwbtzcupg/2020-09-23_11-03-49.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PEAK OUTLIER</a></strong> - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/736/original/2020-09-23_11-11-07.png?1600827080" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160736"></figure>
</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the <strong>Healthcare</strong> and <strong>FB&amp;T</strong> market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the <strong>Energy</strong>, <strong>Banks</strong>, <strong>Multi-Industry</strong> ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP))</a>  and <strong>Utilities</strong> Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/160/741/original/2020-09-23_11-39-24.png?1600828791" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="160741"></figure><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS</strong> - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, <strong>'Overbought'</strong> and <strong>'Oversold' </strong>outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at <strong>+4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> for Companies, <strong>+3</strong> &amp; <strong>-1.5</strong> for Peer Groups and<strong> +2</strong> and<strong> -1</strong> for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over <strong>3.2</strong> million observations.</p></div>


• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
PEAK OUTLIER - Since the onset of  COVID-19 in March, the degree of polarisation in the Japanese equity market as measured by our Relative Price Score [definition below] has increased significantly. Although only 3.1% and 5.1% of listed companies are Overbought and Oversold, respectively, their market weight represented is 10.8% and 6.2%. Such extreme outlier weightings have not occurred since the technology 'bubble' of 2000, and, since then, only during the 2008/9 financial crisis. Investors have increasingly held and bid up perceived long-term domestic non-manufacturing 'winners' without much regard for valuation while discarding Japan's manufacturers, and transportation, utility and energy companies as well as insurers and banks.  

SECTOR TIMELINE - The twenty-eight-year history of Sector Relative Price Scores illustrates the ebbs and flows of investment themes in the market, from the 2000 Technology 'bubble' to the REIT and Real Estate peak of 2013/14, the Healthcare and FB&amp;T market of 2016/17. On the downside, there is greater Oversold 'persistence' in the Energy, Banks, Multi-Industry ( Japan Post (6178 JP))  and Utilities Sectors. Currently, nine Sectors are Overbought, and four are Oversold - thirty-year and twenty-year highs, respectively.  In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific comments.RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,883 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/689/original/2020-08-20_08-32-43.png?1597879991" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153689"></figure><div class="content-caption">All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.</div><p><strong>BRUTAL</strong> - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/694/original/2020-08-20_09-02-34.png?1597881766" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153694"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/695/original/2020-08-20_09-03-07.png?1597881801" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153695"></figure><p><strong>TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS</strong> - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/727/original/2020-08-20_10-57-21.png?1597888653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153727"></figure><p><strong>DAMN THE TORPEDOES</strong> - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.</p></div>

All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.DAMN THE TORPEDOES - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 11th AUGUST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiko-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11127:1" rel="noopener">Taiko Pharmaceutical (4574 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaoko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1419:1" rel="noopener">,</a> the worst from railway group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13058:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin (9042 JP)</a>.  More extensive coverage follows in the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/180/original/2020-08-13_05-28-00.png?1597264094" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152180"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/181/original/2020-08-13_05-28-38.png?1597264139" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152181"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div>
<hr>
<div><p><strong>(BACK TO WEAK) PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong> 63%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>61%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 71%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 30% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>218 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 28% Positive / 9% Neutral / 63% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.8 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -7.2% Quarter YoY / -0.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> +2.5 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 30%</li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>80 Annual • 35 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 29% Positive / 10% Neutral / 61% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 23% Positive / 6% Neutral / 71% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -7.4 points</li>
</ul></div>
</div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 11th AUGUST •
The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from Taiko Pharmaceutical (4574 JP), the worst from railway group Hankyu Hanshin (9042 JP).  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.
Source • Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS

(BACK TO WEAK) PERCENTAGES - 63% of quarterly results, 61% of annual forecasts/revisions and 71% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 30% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.

218 Quarterly Results


Results Score: 28% Positive / 9% Neutral / 63% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.8 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -7.2% Quarter YoY / -0.0% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: +2.5 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 30%


80 Annual • 35 Interim Forecasts/Revisions


Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 29% Positive / 10% Neutral / 61% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 23% Positive / 6% Neutral / 71% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -7.4 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th August - PPI, Toshiba, McDonald's, ENEOS

<p>Growth as an investment style has remained prominent over the COVID-19 period, reinforcing its decade long dominance over the value. The key question remains:  with earnings and value set to be a key theme over H2 2020 when exactly is the value style expected to reverse its underperformance trend? Our data suggest a greater than 66% chance of reversal shortly. As the value style reversal looks increasingly assured, exposure to GARP style investing and the underlying stocks are set to become even more important as we move into the second half of 2020. We highlight 17 stocks who fit the criteria in Q2 2020.</p>

Growth as an investment style has remained prominent over the COVID-19 period, reinforcing its decade long dominance over the value. The key question remains:  with earnings and value set to be a key theme over H2 2020 when exactly is the value style expected to reverse its underperformance trend? Our data suggest a greater than 66% chance of reversal shortly. As the value style reversal looks increasingly assured, exposure to GARP style investing and the underlying stocks are set to become even more important as we move into the second half of 2020. We highlight 17 stocks who fit the criteria in Q2 2020.

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2020 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Japan

Taiko Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is a pharmaceutical company that manufactures and sells gastrointestinal pharmaceuticals and general use pharmaceutical products.

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Taiko Pharmaceutical (4574 JP)

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2021 All Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

GARP selection, held for 12 mths for good reason. The list delivered an average return of 54% v’s the MSCI Asia Pac Index 37.4% over the same...

David Lepper

🇯🇵 JAPAN • September Relative Price Scores - Profiting from Outlier Mean Reversion

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE • RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12th August - PPI, Toshiba, McDonald's, ENEOS

•BEST & WORST 11th AUGUST • The 'best' of Tuesday's large-cap announcements came from Taiko Pharmaceutical (4574 JP), the worst from railway...

Campbell Gunn

Screening the Silk Road: Q2-2020 Small-Mid Cap GARP (Zulu Warrior Screening)

Growth as an investment style has remained prominent over the COVID-19 period, reinforcing its decade long dominance over the value. The key...

David Lepper

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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