Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This Insight is focued on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-of-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7270:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN)</a> ; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crompton-greaves-consumer-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24046:1" rel="noopener">Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)</a> ; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ttk-prestige-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9779:1" rel="noopener">TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symphony-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17047:1" rel="noopener">Symphony Ltd (SYML IN)</a>. </li>
<li>As per ARs, the Indian durables industry is poised for significant growth due to increasing consumer demand, premiumization trends, and government support.</li>
<li>SYML and WHIRL are the ones that warrant attention. Challenges faced by TTKPT are likely to continue.</li>
</ul>


This Insight is focued on Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) ; Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN) ; TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN) &amp; Symphony Ltd (SYML IN). 
As per ARs, the Indian durables industry is poised for significant growth due to increasing consumer demand, premiumization trends, and government support.
SYML and WHIRL are the ones that warrant attention. Challenges faced by TTKPT are likely to continue.


Narrative and Numbers | Household Durables | FY24

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>With Q2 being seasonally the weakest quarter, the demand environment remained impeded by weak consumer sentiment due to inflationary pressures</li><li>As channel inventory ran dry post a sizzling summer season, primary sales of cooling products (more so RAC and air coolers) are likely to support overall industry growth</li><li>While Onam demand (start of the festive season) was below expectation, early trends from Navratri/Dusshera have been encouraging</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

With Q2 being seasonally the weakest quarter, the demand environment remained impeded by weak consumer sentiment due to inflationary pressuresAs channel inventory ran dry post a sizzling summer season, primary sales of cooling products (more so RAC and air coolers) are likely to support overall industry growthWhile Onam demand (start of the festive season) was below expectation, early trends from Navratri/Dusshera have been encouragingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables & EMS (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Soft Quarter, Festive Season a Key Monitorable

<ul><li>In Q1FY25, the consumer durables aggregate revenue grew by 21% YoY (+16% 2-yr CAGR)</li><li>The growth was driven by the summer portfolio (room AC, air coolers, fans) which benefited from a harsh summer season</li><li>White goods/ ECD segments’ revenues grew by 41%/17% YoY (+19%/+12% 2-yr CAGR)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In Q1FY25, the consumer durables aggregate revenue grew by 21% YoY (+16% 2-yr CAGR)The growth was driven by the summer portfolio (room AC, air coolers, fans) which benefited from a harsh summer seasonWhite goods/ ECD segments’ revenues grew by 41%/17% YoY (+19%/+12% 2-yr CAGR)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables & EMS: Decoding Q1FY25 Trends

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas production</li><li>In Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory levies</li><li>PAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costs</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas productionIn Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory leviesPAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

<ul><li>With the country witnessing an intense heatwave, demand for consumer durables in 1Q was largely led by cooling products which witnessed inventory stock-outs as demand outstripped supply</li><li>Ex of the cooling portfolio, there was the sustenance of only a gradual improvement in consumer sentiment</li><li>Rising RM prices, high A&amp;P spending and EPR costs are likely to keep margins under check</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

With the country witnessing an intense heatwave, demand for consumer durables in 1Q was largely led by cooling products which witnessed inventory stock-outs as demand outstripped supplyEx of the cooling portfolio, there was the sustenance of only a gradual improvement in consumer sentimentRising RM prices, high A&amp;P spending and EPR costs are likely to keep margins under checkContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Durables & EMS: Summer Season Drives Demand Uptick

India

Symphony Ltd. manufactures a wide range of air coolers.  The Company's products include evaporative air coolers, air conditioners, and water heaters.

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Symphony Ltd (SYML IN)

Narrative and Numbers | Household Durables | FY24

Indian durables industry set for growth. Symphony Ltd and Whirlpool of India are the ones to watch, while TTK Prestige faces ongoing challenges.

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Durables & EMS (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Soft Quarter, Festive Season a Key Monitorable

With Q2 being seasonally the weakest quarter, the demand environment remained impeded by weak consumer sentiment due to inflationary pressures

HDFC Securities

Consumer Durables & EMS: Decoding Q1FY25 Trends

In Q1FY25, the consumer durables aggregate revenue grew by 21% YoY (+16% 2-yr CAGR). The growth was driven by the summer portfolio (room AC, air...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Durables & EMS: Summer Season Drives Demand Uptick

With the country witnessing an intense heatwave, demand for consumer durables in 1Q was largely led by cooling products which witnessed inventory...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Narrative and Numbers | Household Durables | FY24

​Indian durables industry set for growth. Symphony Ltd and Whirlpool of India are the ones to watch, while TTK Prestige faces ongoing challenges.

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Durables & EMS (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Soft Quarter, Festive Season a Key Monitorable

With Q2 being seasonally the weakest quarter, the demand environment remained impeded by weak consumer sentiment due to inflationary pressures

HDFC Securities

Consumer Durables & EMS: Decoding Q1FY25 Trends

In Q1FY25, the consumer durables aggregate revenue grew by 21% YoY (+16% 2-yr CAGR). The growth was driven by the summer portfolio (room AC, air...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Durables & EMS: Summer Season Drives Demand Uptick

With the country witnessing an intense heatwave, demand for consumer durables in 1Q was largely led by cooling products which witnessed inventory...

HDFC Securities

Indian durables industry set for growth. Symphony Ltd and Whirlpool of India are the ones to watch, while TTK Prestige faces ongoing challenges.