Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In our April International Strategy, we explore the recent consolidation across global equity markets and examine the following opportunities within:<ul><li>Defensive Sectors, including an actionable Group within Health Care: Pharmaceuticals</li><li>Japan and Hong Kong</li><li>Emerging Markets</li></ul>Also included are links to in-depth commentary on all 12 sectors

In our April International Strategy, we explore the recent consolidation across global equity markets and examine the following opportunities within:Defensive Sectors, including an actionable Group within Health Care: PharmaceuticalsJapan and Hong KongEmerging MarketsAlso included are links to in-depth commentary on all 12 sectors

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan, HK, &  EM

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class=""><li>The drugstore sector is the one Japanese retail sector to show consistent growth over the past decade. </li><li>It is now the leading channel for mass market cosmetics, health and medical supplies, and is fast becoming an important channel for all types of foods, with some chains already selling enough food to qualify as top 20 supermarkets. </li><li>Drugstores already own close to a 40% share in cosmetics. </li><li>With massive consolidation in the sector, leading chains are looking for ways to differentiate their ranges and add value, generating higher returns as a result.</li><li>The sector still has 1000s of small independent stores which will lose share to the big four buying groups over time.</li><li>Plenty of room for expansion still for all the leading chains.</li><li>Their success means significant competition for other retail sectors, especially convenience stores.</li></ul>

The drugstore sector is the one Japanese retail sector to show consistent growth over the past decade. It is now the leading channel for mass market cosmetics, health and medical supplies, and is fast becoming an important channel for all types of foods, with some chains already selling enough food to qualify as top 20 supermarkets. Drugstores already own close to a 40% share in cosmetics. With massive consolidation in the sector, leading chains are looking for ways to differentiate their ranges and add value, generating higher returns as a result.The sector still has 1000s of small independent stores which will lose share to the big four buying groups over time.Plenty of room for expansion still for all the leading chains.Their success means significant competition for other retail sectors, especially convenience stores.

Drugstores in Japan: Still Plenty of Growth Ahead

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and medical equipment diverge across the region, and still trail the per capita averages of the 34 OECD member countries. </li><li>For a shorter-term perspective, over the past five weeks, four Healthcare stocks (Cordlife Group, iX Biopharma, UG Healthcare Corporation &amp; Health Management International) have released Annual Reports whilst a secondary listing (Techcomp Holdings) has released an Interim Report.</li><li>Within these reports, there are examples of how the Healthcare Sector is adapting to Asia Pacific demographics, maintaining an ongoing focus on Research &amp; Development, monitoring pharmaceutical &amp; food regulation trends, collaborating with communities to build business channels, expansion of production lines and pursuing value chain management in manufacturing and distribution. </li></ul>

From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and medical equipment diverge across the region, and still trail the per capita averages of the 34 OECD member countries. For a shorter-term perspective, over the past five weeks, four Healthcare stocks (Cordlife Group, iX Biopharma, UG Healthcare Corporation &amp; Health Management International) have released Annual Reports whilst a secondary listing (Techcomp Holdings) has released an Interim Report.Within these reports, there are examples of how the Healthcare Sector is adapting to Asia Pacific demographics, maintaining an ongoing focus on Research &amp; Development, monitoring pharmaceutical &amp; food regulation trends, collaborating with communities to build business channels, expansion of production lines and pursuing value chain management in manufacturing and distribution. 

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time. The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time.  The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

The suggestion of government orchestration against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1">Ono</a>’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the Nikkei that the Japanese Health Ministry is considering setting rules on new drug usage during this fiscal year, starting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1">Ono</a>’s Opdivo and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091">Astellas</a>’s Repatha. Patients may be limited to those who can see certain impact from the treatment, which in turn would mean the drug could only be prescribed at those institutions with the facilities to check…

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the Nikkei that the Japanese Health Ministry is considering setting rules on new drug usage during this fiscal year, starting with Ono’s Opdivo and Astellas’s Repatha. Patients may be limited to those who can see certain impact from the treatment, which in turn would mean the drug could only be prescribed at those institutions with the facilities to check…

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

Japan

SUZUKEN CO., LTD., a subsidiary of Medca Japan, wholesales and manufactures pharmaceutical products mainly to hospitals and practitioners.  The Company also provides medical equipment such as electro-cardiogram and blood pressure measurement.  Suzuken provides construction and repair works to hospitals and maintains patients' clinical records through information systems services.

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Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan, HK, & EM

In our April International Strategy, we explore the recent consolidation across global equity markets and examine the following opportunities...

Vermilion Research

Drugstores in Japan: Still Plenty of Growth Ahead

The drugstore sector is the one Japanese retail sector to show consistent growth over the past decade. It is now the leading channel for mass...

Michael Causton

Key Drivers of Asia's Healthcare Sector

From a demand perspective, Asia’s population is growing as is longevity. On the supply side, Asia’s number of doctors, nurses, hospitals and...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Death Rattle for Defensives?

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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