Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.</li>
<li>Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.</li>
<li>They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.</li>
</ul>


Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.
Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.
They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.


Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medipal-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18394:1" rel="noopener">Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)</a> reported strong revenue growth in pharmaceutical wholesale business, while its cosmetics distribution business reported lower-than-expected revenue in FY22. FY23 operating profit target was set below consensus.</li>
<li>Lower demand for hygiene-related products in domestic market and lesser foreign tourists arrival in Japan are expected to negatively impact Medipal’s cosmetics distribution business.</li>
<li>NHI drug price revisions are the biggest challenge in pharmaceutical wholesale business. Medipal’s largest revenue contributing drug, Takecab saw a 15.8% price reduction effective April 1.</li>
</ul>



Medipal Holdings (7459 JP) reported strong revenue growth in pharmaceutical wholesale business, while its cosmetics distribution business reported lower-than-expected revenue in FY22. FY23 operating profit target was set below consensus.
Lower demand for hygiene-related products in domestic market and lesser foreign tourists arrival in Japan are expected to negatively impact Medipal’s cosmetics distribution business.
NHI drug price revisions are the biggest challenge in pharmaceutical wholesale business. Medipal’s largest revenue contributing drug, Takecab saw a 15.8% price reduction effective April 1.


Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Disappointing FY23 Guidance and Challenging Business Environment

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Well-known largecap Japanese Security Services firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/secom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11405:1" rel="noopener">Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)</a> on Friday announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities of its subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/secom-joshinetsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2081:1" rel="noopener">Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP)</a>. This is a slightly unusual two-step transaction. To start with, while SECOM itself only owns 54%, the combination of SECOM, its Singaporean sub, two connected individuals and two partner companies gets Related Parties to 73.6%. SECOM will conduct a Tender Offer for the shares of Secom Joshinetsu at ¥6350/share, which is a 66.2% premium to Friday's close, then will merge SECOM Joshinetsu into SECOM at a scrip exchange ratio to be determined later. That looks like a good premium.Is it good enough? It doesn't really matter.

Well-known largecap Japanese Security Services firm Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP) on Friday announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities of its subsidiary Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP). This is a slightly unusual two-step transaction. To start with, while SECOM itself only owns 54%, the combination of SECOM, its Singaporean sub, two connected individuals and two partner companies gets Related Parties to 73.6%. SECOM will conduct a Tender Offer for the shares of Secom Joshinetsu at ¥6350/share, which is a 66.2% premium to Friday's close, then will merge SECOM Joshinetsu into SECOM at a scrip exchange ratio to be determined later. That looks like a good premium.Is it good enough? It doesn't really matter. 

Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eps-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13246:1" rel="noopener">Eps Holdings (4282 JP)</a> was founded in 1991 by Hao Yan with 100,000 yen when he was 28 years old. It was a company which was built around software to manage clinical trials. Basically, the entire company was built off that idea of providing an infrastructure to allow a small company to act like a big one, or to allow a big one to interface with 5,000 smaller ones. A couple of years later the company became a CRO (Contract Research Organization) by amalgamating case registration and drug allocation services for those same clinical trials. Less than a decade later and they were managing the interfaces with clinical trial sites (i.e. they were a Site Management Organization (SMO)) for pharmaceutical companies, then they tacked on a CSO (Contract Sales Organization) status so they could take existing product from that same group of pharmaceutical companies for whom they were managing drug trials and could sell those drugs to the same doctors who were in situ at the thousands of sites across Japan conducting trials. Later, the company launched some of those same services in China and in SE Asia. It's a good business. About 15yrs ago the company listed on the TSE1. About five years ago they formed a tie-up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)</a>. Now they are participating in the joint development of a DNA vaccine for covid-19. <h2>The NEW News</h2>Earlier this week, EPS launched a Takeunder of a Hong Kong company called Speed Apparel Holdings (3860 HK - held as to 75% by a single holder). It's not clear why they are doing this takeunder but it has been arranged as of earlier this spring.And on Thursday 27 May, the company announced that Mr. Hao Yan's company and an executive team of EPS would launch a Management Buyout (MBO) of EPS Holdings with contributions from partner Suzuken and MBK Partners as sponsor.It's a decent deal at a decent premium so... we dig in.

Eps Holdings (4282 JP) was founded in 1991 by Hao Yan with 100,000 yen when he was 28 years old. It was a company which was built around software to manage clinical trials. Basically, the entire company was built off that idea of providing an infrastructure to allow a small company to act like a big one, or to allow a big one to interface with 5,000 smaller ones. A couple of years later the company became a CRO (Contract Research Organization) by amalgamating case registration and drug allocation services for those same clinical trials. Less than a decade later and they were managing the interfaces with clinical trial sites (i.e. they were a Site Management Organization (SMO)) for pharmaceutical companies, then they tacked on a CSO (Contract Sales Organization) status so they could take existing product from that same group of pharmaceutical companies for whom they were managing drug trials and could sell those drugs to the same doctors who were in situ at the thousands of sites across Japan conducting trials. Later, the company launched some of those same services in China and in SE Asia. It's a good business. About 15yrs ago the company listed on the TSE1. About five years ago they formed a tie-up with Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP). Now they are participating in the joint development of a DNA vaccine for covid-19. The NEW NewsEarlier this week, EPS launched a Takeunder of a Hong Kong company called Speed Apparel Holdings (3860 HK - held as to 75% by a single holder). It's not clear why they are doing this takeunder but it has been arranged as of earlier this spring.And on Thursday 27 May, the company announced that Mr. Hao Yan's company and an executive team of EPS would launch a Management Buyout (MBO) of EPS Holdings with contributions from partner Suzuken and MBK Partners as sponsor.It's a decent deal at a decent premium so... we dig in.

Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS

Japan

SUZUKEN CO., LTD., a subsidiary of Medca Japan, wholesales and manufactures pharmaceutical products mainly to hospitals and practitioners.  The Company also provides medical equipment such as electro-cardiogram and blood pressure measurement.  Suzuken provides construction and repair works to hospitals and maintains patients' clinical records through information systems services.

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Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)

Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Wholesalers in Japan had a good year last year. The biggest firms like Medipal may prosper but there are challenges for the sector which could...

Michael Causton

Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Disappointing FY23 Guidance and Challenging Business Environment

Medipal’s operating profit guidance for FY23 came below market expectations. Annual drug price revisions remain the biggest long-term challenge for...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)

Secom is finally taking out Secom Joshinetsu minorities. Because affiliates own more than 13%, this deal is done before it starts. You get cash, or...

Travis Lundy

Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS

EPS Holdings is being taken private by its founder in an MBO with help from existing directors and insiders, Suzuken, and MBK. Not unusually, it is...

Travis Lundy

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