Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan’s banks face pressure on margins, credit costs and stock market losses. Much of this will worsen further since events in the UK. Unfortunately, for Japan’s banks, there is little in the way of ROA to give up, even for marginal financial deterioration.<h2>Margin pressure</h2> Japan’s banks face worse margin pressure since the negative interest rate policy took hold earlier this year.<div class="content-highlight">Where banks have excess deposits with the Bank of Japan, they will be paying for this, rather than receiving income.…</div>

Japan’s banks face pressure on margins, credit costs and stock market losses. Much of this will worsen further since events in the UK. Unfortunately, for Japan’s banks, there is little in the way of ROA to give up, even for marginal financial deterioration.Margin pressure Japan’s banks face worse margin pressure since the negative interest rate policy took hold earlier this year.Where banks have excess deposits with the Bank of Japan, they will be paying for this, rather than receiving income.…

Three Pronged Attack on Japan's Banks, Becomes More Pointed

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser extent. We plan to reduce the fair value estimates for Nomura Holdings as the company remains poorly positioned as a subscale investment bank with high conduct risk and repeated failures in expanding the global fixed income franchise. Nomura makes significant use of three subsidiaries under European Economic Area, or EEA, passporting privileges to reach its wholesale clients in continental Europe. For other banks, the impacts are likely to be less acute relative to Nomura as they do not hold too many derivative contracts under United Kingdom entities, and their direct exposures are largely limited to traditional lending functions to support foreign subsidiaries of the Japanese parent companies.Analysts: Mari Kumagai &amp; Michael Wu, CAIA

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser extent. We plan to reduce the fair value estimates for Nomura Holdings as the company remains poorly positioned as a subscale investment bank with high conduct risk and repeated failures in expanding the global fixed income franchise. Nomura makes significant use of three subsidiaries under European Economic Area, or EEA, passporting privileges to reach its wholesale clients in continental Europe. For other banks, the impacts are likely to be less acute relative to Nomura as they do not hold too many derivative contracts under United Kingdom entities, and their direct exposures are largely limited to traditional lending functions to support foreign subsidiaries of the Japanese parent companies.Analysts: Mari Kumagai &amp; Michael Wu, CAIA

The Brexit Vote Result Means Additional Headwinds ForJapanese Banks

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>At 9M16</td>
<td>Cash</td>
<td>Securities</td>
<td>Loans</td>
<td>NIM (%)</td>
<td>Profit</td>
<td>LLP/loans(%)</td>
<td>LLP/profit(%)</td>
<td>ROA (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nishi-Nippon</td>
<td>454,094</td>
<td>1,869,789</td>
<td>6,366,571</td>
<td>1.17</td>
<td>25,326</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>4.56</td>
<td>0.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Yamagu</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative interest rates and lower yielding JGB’s and loans can affect some of Japans largest banks. And with little ROA at present, there is not much room to give up any net interest income, without facing a major drop in earnings.

At 9M16
Cash
Securities
Loans
NIM (%)
Profit
LLP/loans(%)
LLP/profit(%)
ROA (%)


Nishi-Nippon
454,094
1,869,789
6,366,571
1.17
25,326
0.04
4.56
0.39


Yamagu

…

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that there are plenty of assets affected by lower interest rates, and now negative interest rates. Some banks in Japan have no ability to lower their deposit rates further, and these banks can be even more adversely affected. These are the regional banks. Late in January 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it will charge a rate of 0.10% on current…

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that there are plenty of assets affected by lower interest rates, and now negative interest rates. Some banks in Japan have no ability to lower their deposit rates further, and these banks can be even more adversely affected. These are the regional banks. Late in January 2016, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it will charge a rate of 0.10% on current…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures.  But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the BoJ, and suggested that it was unlikely to target further declines in cash rates.  Its policies are more focused on boosting domestic asset prices and domestic bank lending and place less emphasis on a weaker exchange rate policy.  Since the ECB set its course to further ease policy at its 22-October 2015 policy meeting, the market has presumed that it favored lower interest rates.  It has now signaled it has reached bottom on this path, just as the BoJ has diverted its attention to negative interest rates.  As such, we see a case for a recovery in EUR/JPY, potentially retracing the significant fall since October last year.

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures.  But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the BoJ, and suggested that it was unlikely to target further declines in cash rates.  Its policies are more focused on boosting domestic asset prices and domestic bank lending and place less emphasis on a weaker exchange rate policy.  Since the ECB set its course to further ease policy at its 22-October 2015 policy meeting, the market has presumed that it favored lower interest rates.  It has now signaled it has reached bottom on this path, just as the BoJ has diverted its attention to negative interest rates.  As such, we see a case for a recovery in EUR/JPY, potentially retracing the significant fall since October last year.

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Policy Easing Paths Diverge

Japan

The San-in Godo Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank mainly operating in Shimane and Tottori Prefectures.  The Bank offers banking services including deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities brokerage.  The San-in Godo Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, letter of credit, invests in venture capital, and develops software.

North Pacific Bank, Ltd. is the surviving company through the merger of Sapporo Hokuyo Holdings. The company provides banking services including deposits, loans, foreign currency transactions, trust banking, and securities investments.

THE SHIGA BANK, LTD. is a regional bank mainly operating in Shiga.  The Bank also provides financial services including credit card and leasing as well as data management services.

Hokuhoku Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company, which manages financial operations for its subsidiaries.  As a financial group, the Company provides general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  The Group also provides other financial services such as leasing and credit cards.

Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group, Inc. provides banking services. The Company offers deposit, loan, settlement, and other services. Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group provides services in Japan.

Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)

The Hyakugo Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Mie.  The Bank provides general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  The Hyakugo Bank also develops computer software and provides financial services such as leasing and credit cards.

Nishi-Nippon Financial Holding Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of The Nishi-Nippon City Bank, Limited, The Bank of Nagasaki, Ltd and Nishi Nippon Shinyo Hosho. The group manages the subsidiary companies and provides variety of financial services.

Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial Group, Inc. operates banks. The Company mainly offers financial services. Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial Group provides services in Japan.

Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial Group (7173 JP)

The Bank of Nagoya, Ltd. is a Nagoya based regional bank.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, trust funds, and bond issuance.  The Bank of Nagoya also provides financial services such as leasing and credit cards.

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk PT provides general banking services. The Bank's head office is located in Jakarta with branch offices throughout Indonesia.

Westamerica Bancorporation is the holding company for Westamerica Bank and Bank of Lake County.  The Banks provide a full range of services to individual and corporate customers in northern and central California.  The Company's other subsidiaries finance accounts receivable and inventory lines of credit and term business loans, as well as provides data processing services to the Company.

Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited provides financial services including consumer, corporate and mortgage financing.  Additionally the Company provides securities underwriting and investment advisory services.  Thanachart Capital also provides insurance services through its subsidiaries.

Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers savings and current accounts, fixed deposits, investments, loans, insurance, wealth management, phone banking, and business cards. Alliance Bank Malaysia serves customers in Singapore and Malaysia.

PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk. is a financial institution that specializes in funding and lending. The Bank offers accounts in deposits & savings, pension loans, small to medium sized business loans, and other financial products.  Bank Tabungan offers services in bank clearance, payment, collection, transfer, and payroll services.

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN IJ)

The Jammu & Kashmir Bank Limited provides banking services, including CD's, educational loans, housing loans and car loans.  The Bank also provides insurance services through a joint venture with MetLife India Insurance Company. The Group has about 475 branches throughout India.

S&T Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for S&T Bank and S&T Investment Company, Inc.  S&T Bank is a full service bank providing service to its customers through a network of offices located in Allegheny, Armstrong, Clarion, Indiana, Jefferson, Clearfield, and Westmoreland counties in Pennsylvania.

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation is a bank holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides general banking business and offers a range of financial services including traditional retail banking services, such as savings, time deposits, mortgage, consumer installment, and commercial loans.

Bank Ina Perdana PT is headquartered in Indonesia. The Company's line of business includes the operation of national commercial banks.

BIMB Holdings Berhad provides all aspects of Islamic banking services.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company underwrites family and general takaful (Islamic insurance) and provides stock broking and other related services. BIMB Holdings  also has operation in unit trust management, provides training and consultancy  services, and leases fixed assets to related companies.

Suruga Bank Ltd. is a Shizuoka based regional bank mainly operating in the Kanto area (central eastern part of Japan) including Tokyo.  The Bank provides deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  The Suruga Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, letter of credit, and credit cards services.

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Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)

Three Pronged Attack on Japan's Banks, Becomes More Pointed

Japan’s banks face pressure on margins, credit costs and stock market losses. Much of this will worsen further since events in the UK....

Daniel Tabbush

The Brexit Vote Result Means Additional Headwinds ForJapanese Banks

The Brexit vote result is a clear negative for independent investment banks, and major banks with sizable crossborder transaction flows to a lesser...

Morningstar, Inc.

Japan's Banks Can Lose 30% of Income

With less interest income on cash, securities and loans, Japan’s banks can lose a considerable amount of current profit. We show how negative...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan's Nasty Margin Trend

It was bad enough before, but negative rates will only exacerbate the worsening margins of Japan’s banks. These banks are highly liquid, so that...

Daniel Tabbush

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Policy Easing Paths Diverge

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures. But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the...

Greg Gibbs

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