Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Only about 1/3 of of the recently announced share buy back is done, the remainder will come from now through end of March 2024. </li>
<li>Earnings are far higher than the bank's forecast, and there should be a major revision in coming weeks. </li>
<li>Credit Saison collaboration and exiting BOJ negative rate policy, should provide a multitude of positives, for revenue growth.</li>
</ul>


Only about 1/3 of of the recently announced share buy back is done, the remainder will come from now through end of March 2024. 
Earnings are far higher than the bank's forecast, and there should be a major revision in coming weeks. 
Credit Saison collaboration and exiting BOJ negative rate policy, should provide a multitude of positives, for revenue growth.


Suruga Bank - Only 33% of Buyback Done, Profit Guidance to Rise a Lot, Credit Saison Support Growth

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-h1-bank-earnings-interest-fees-up-expenses-credit-costs-down-opportunity-abounds-still" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116534" rel="noopener">Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still</a> last week mentioning the trends in guidance revisions.</li>
<li>Since then, five have reported H1. +20%, +53%, +23% vs guidance; +25.6%, and +28.2% vs Last Year. Eight more have added new guidance, weighted average H1 up 48%. </li>
<li>Four more report tomorrow, eight on Thurs, 43 on Friday. The Top 5 are all next Mon/Tues. Watch for comments about portfolio restructuring efforts in H2 as market yields rise.</li>
</ul>


I wrote Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still last week mentioning the trends in guidance revisions.
Since then, five have reported H1. +20%, +53%, +23% vs guidance; +25.6%, and +28.2% vs Last Year. Eight more have added new guidance, weighted average H1 up 48%. 
Four more report tomorrow, eight on Thurs, 43 on Friday. The Top 5 are all next Mon/Tues. Watch for comments about portfolio restructuring efforts in H2 as market yields rise.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Last Minute Update; Suruga Bank Reacts Well

<ul>
<li>10+ Months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suruga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6267:1" rel="noopener">Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)</a> announced it would sell a large chunk of its treasury shares to Credit Saison and would then buy back ¥22bn of stock.</li>
<li>I liked the odds in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/suruga-bank-8358-to-sell-then-buy-back-17-of-the-bank-but-how-is-key" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:102676" rel="noopener">Suruga Bank (8358) To Sell, Then Buy Back 17% of the Bank, but HOW Is Key.</a> They spent the ¥22bn. The stock rose a lot.</li>
<li>Today, we get a div hike for H2 (implying a div hike for this year too), another buyback, a huge share cancellation, and new KPIs. As always, details matter.</li>
</ul>


10+ Months ago, Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP) announced it would sell a large chunk of its treasury shares to Credit Saison and would then buy back ¥22bn of stock.
I liked the odds in Suruga Bank (8358) To Sell, Then Buy Back 17% of the Bank, but HOW Is Key. They spent the ¥22bn. The stock rose a lot.
Today, we get a div hike for H2 (implying a div hike for this year too), another buyback, a huge share cancellation, and new KPIs. As always, details matter.


Suruga Bank (8358 JP) - New Div, New Buyback, New KPIs, New 6yr High Price

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Juroku Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We update twelve Japanese regional banks, and add two new names, to target beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook; also banks with attractive credit quality, capital adequacy and valuations</li>
<li>We identify the value of equity holdings for disposal among these banks; the lack of near-term easing prospects at the US Fed should support JGB yields and domestic bank valuations</li>
<li>We add smaller cap Juroku Financial to our buy list of Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial, Gunma Bank and higher risk option Suruga Bank</li>
</ul>


We update twelve Japanese regional banks, and add two new names, to target beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook; also banks with attractive credit quality, capital adequacy and valuations
We identify the value of equity holdings for disposal among these banks; the lack of near-term easing prospects at the US Fed should support JGB yields and domestic bank valuations
We add smaller cap Juroku Financial to our buy list of Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial, Gunma Bank and higher risk option Suruga Bank


Japanese Regional Banks – Adding a Smaller Cap to Our Key Positive Picks

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Financial System Report published on April 18th focuses on the key Japanese bank issues, including the prospect of domestic rate hikes</li>
<li>We focus primarily on the key take-aways from the BoJ report, in particular with relation to potential rate hikes; our key picks appear to be better geared than the average</li>
<li>We highlight Resona, Mizuho and Concordia in the bigger caps, with positive views on Suruga, Gunma and Tokyo Kiraboshi in the regional banks</li>
</ul>


The Financial System Report published on April 18th focuses on the key Japanese bank issues, including the prospect of domestic rate hikes
We focus primarily on the key take-aways from the BoJ report, in particular with relation to potential rate hikes; our key picks appear to be better geared than the average
We highlight Resona, Mizuho and Concordia in the bigger caps, with positive views on Suruga, Gunma and Tokyo Kiraboshi in the regional banks


Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report

Japan

Suruga Bank Ltd. is a Shizuoka based regional bank mainly operating in the Kanto area (central eastern part of Japan) including Tokyo.  The Bank provides deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  The Suruga Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, letter of credit, and credit cards services.

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Suruga Bank Ltd (8358 JP)

Suruga Bank - Only 33% of Buyback Done, Profit Guidance to Rise a Lot, Credit Saison Support Growth

Suruga Bank has done ~33% of its recent share buyback, the rest will come through March. The bank has earned far above its guidance, expect profit...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Last Minute Update; Suruga Bank Reacts Well

Since last week's piece, 5 banks have reported strong H1 results, ahead of guidance and up yoy. 7 more have amended H1 guidance up an average of...

Travis Lundy

Suruga Bank (8358 JP) - New Div, New Buyback, New KPIs, New 6yr High Price

Suruga Bank sold TSY shares to Credit Saison, saw stock rise after spending ¥22bn buying back stock. Now a new dividend hike, buyback, share...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Regional Banks – Adding a Smaller Cap to Our Key Positive Picks

Aside from the usual metrics, we add regional banks' cross-shareholdings as a share of market cap; smaller cap Juroku Financial added to buy list...

Victor Galliano

Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report

The BoJ's FSR focuses on issues like potential domestic rate hikes. Key picks are Resona, Mizuho, and Concordia in big caps, the positive regional...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Suruga Bank - Only 33% of Buyback Done, Profit Guidance to Rise a Lot, Credit Saison Support Growth

Suruga Bank has done ~33% of its recent share buyback, the rest will come through March. The bank has earned far above its guidance, expect profit...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Last Minute Update; Suruga Bank Reacts Well

Since last week's piece, 5 banks have reported strong H1 results, ahead of guidance and up yoy. 7 more have amended H1 guidance up an average of...

Travis Lundy

Suruga Bank (8358 JP) - New Div, New Buyback, New KPIs, New 6yr High Price

​Suruga Bank sold TSY shares to Credit Saison, saw stock rise after spending ¥22bn buying back stock. Now a new dividend hike, buyback, share...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Regional Banks – Adding a Smaller Cap to Our Key Positive Picks

​Aside from the usual metrics, we add regional banks' cross-shareholdings as a share of market cap; smaller cap Juroku Financial added to buy list...

Victor Galliano

Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report

​The BoJ's FSR focuses on issues like potential domestic rate hikes. Key picks are Resona, Mizuho, and Concordia in big caps, the positive regional...

Victor Galliano

Suruga Bank sold TSY shares to Credit Saison, saw stock rise after spending ¥22bn buying back stock. Now a new dividend hike, buyback, share...

Aside from the usual metrics, we add regional banks' cross-shareholdings as a share of market cap; smaller cap Juroku Financial added to buy list...

The BoJ's FSR focuses on issues like potential domestic rate hikes. Key picks are Resona, Mizuho, and Concordia in big caps, the positive regional...