Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>I want to talk about Supermicro. The stock has gone parabolic; some say it’s emblematic of the coming Semiconductor and AI bubble.</li><li>I think it is to a certain extent, but I want to point out a particular aspect that has been happening.</li><li>Given the high volume of options expiring today, I believe there is an ongoing gamma squeeze. It created huge buying pressure that has led to today. This was the run-up until Thursday.</li></ul>

I want to talk about Supermicro. The stock has gone parabolic; some say it’s emblematic of the coming Semiconductor and AI bubble.I think it is to a certain extent, but I want to point out a particular aspect that has been happening.Given the high volume of options expiring today, I believe there is an ongoing gamma squeeze. It created huge buying pressure that has led to today. This was the run-up until Thursday.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>This is our first report on one of the fastest growing high-performance server and storage solutions providers, Super Micro Computer Inc.</li><li>The company reported a record-breaking fiscal second quarter performance for 2024, with a revenue of $3.66 billion and an earnings per share of $5.59, marking a 103% increase from last year.</li><li>This is the first time the company has crossed the $3 billion mark in quarterly revenue, which surpassed even the total annual revenue collected in 2021.</li></ul>

This is our first report on one of the fastest growing high-performance server and storage solutions providers, Super Micro Computer Inc.The company reported a record-breaking fiscal second quarter performance for 2024, with a revenue of $3.66 billion and an earnings per share of $5.59, marking a 103% increase from last year.This is the first time the company has crossed the $3 billion mark in quarterly revenue, which surpassed even the total annual revenue collected in 2021.

Super Micro Computer: Initiation of Coverage - Unlocking the Power of AI with Green Computing – Why Investors Can't Afford to Miss Out!  - Major Drivers

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.

AppLovin (APP US) and Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On Friday, the S&amp;P index committee announced the June 2024 changes to the three major indices in the S&amp;P1500 universe. </li>
<li>KKR, Crowdstrike (CRWD), and GoDaddy (GDDY) replace Robert Half (RHI), Comerica (CMA), and Illumina (ILMN) in the S&amp;P500. There are 6 ADDs to S&amp;PMidCap400, 13 DELETEs from Sm600. </li>
<li>There are some BIG and impactful flows here. Some are very big. Netted 2-way flow on 21 June is ~US$66-80bn. But as always, details matter. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, the S&amp;P index committee announced the June 2024 changes to the three major indices in the S&amp;P1500 universe. 
KKR, Crowdstrike (CRWD), and GoDaddy (GDDY) replace Robert Half (RHI), Comerica (CMA), and Illumina (ILMN) in the S&amp;P500. There are 6 ADDs to S&amp;PMidCap400, 13 DELETEs from Sm600. 
There are some BIG and impactful flows here. Some are very big. Netted 2-way flow on 21 June is ~US$66-80bn. But as always, details matter. 


Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

United States

Super Micro Computer, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and sells server solutions based on modular and open-standard x86 architecture. The Company's products include servers, motherboards, chassis, and accessories.

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)

WTF Is Going on at SuperMicro? (SMCI)

Given the high volume of options expiring today, I believe there is an ongoing gamma squeeze. It created huge buying pressure that has led to today.

Fabricated Knowledge

Super Micro Computer: Initiation of Coverage - Unlocking the Power of AI with Green Computing – Why Investors Can't Afford to Miss Out! - Major Drivers

This is our first report on one of the fastest growing high-performance server and storage solutions providers, Super Micro Computer Inc. The...

Baptista Research

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Jun24 S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - Both More and Less Interesting Than You Think, But 3 Big Buys

The S&P500/400/600 rebalance is interesting. As usual, some names will get overbought early, and others will not get bought enough. For a bunch of...

Travis Lundy

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; we might see AI server, WiFi/networking, and NAND vendors in US to beat 1Q24 but...

Andrew Lu

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