Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.</li>
<li>As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.</li>
</ul>


Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.
As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.


Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sunrun delivered a solid result, surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts.</li><li>The company exceeded its volume projection and had almost 34,400 additional customers in the second quarter, including over 25,000 new subscribers.</li><li>Sunrun’s subscriber additions increased from almost 72% in Q1 to nearly 74% of its overall customer additions for the time period.</li></ul>

Sunrun delivered a solid result, surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts.The company exceeded its volume projection and had almost 34,400 additional customers in the second quarter, including over 25,000 new subscribers.Sunrun’s subscriber additions increased from almost 72% in Q1 to nearly 74% of its overall customer additions for the time period.

Sunrun Inc: New Level 2 EV Charger & Other Drivers

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
<li>This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.</li>
<li>The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.
This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.
The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.


Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

<ul>
<li>After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.</li>
<li>This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.</li>
<li>Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
</ul>


After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.
This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.
Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.


Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on Sunrun and the company continues its strong momentum of penetrating the residential solar market.</li><li>In the last quarter alone, Sunrun added over 29,000 customers, representing over 213 megawatts of solar energy capacity installed, a 27% increase over the previous quarter.</li><li>Their focus on multifamily housing for increased penetration of the residential market is a key driver.</li></ul>

This is our first report on Sunrun and the company continues its strong momentum of penetrating the residential solar market.In the last quarter alone, Sunrun added over 29,000 customers, representing over 213 megawatts of solar energy capacity installed, a 27% increase over the previous quarter.Their focus on multifamily housing for increased penetration of the residential market is a key driver.

Sunrun Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Focus On Multifamily Housing & Other Drivers

United States

Encore Wire Corporation manufactures copper electrical building wire and cable. The Company supplies residential wire for interior wiring in homes, apartments, and manufactured housing.  Encore also manufactures wire for commercial and industrial buildings.  The Company's customers are wholesale electrical distributors that serve both the residential and commercial wire markets.

EnerSys manufactures, markets, and distributes industrial batteries.  The Company also manufactures, markets, and distributes related products such as chargers, power equipment, and battery accessories.  EnerSys provides related after-market and customer-support services for lead-acid industrial batteries.

AZZ Incorporated manufactures specialty electrical equipment and components for the global power generation, power transmission, and distribution markets.  The Company also provides hot dip galvanizing services to the steel fabrication industry across the United States.

Atkore Inc. manufactures and supplies metal products and electrical raceway solutions. The Company offers steel tubes and pipes, electrical conduit, armored wire and cable, cable trays, metal framing systems, and building components. Atkore International Group serves customers globally.

Array Technologies, Inc. designs and manufactures solar tracking systems. The Company offers solar tracking equipment to utilities, corporations, small businesses, and homeowners. Array Technologies serves customers worldwide.

Vicor Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets modular power components and complete power systems.  The Company's products are used in electronic products to convert power from a primary power source into the direct current required by electronic circuits.  Vicor sells its products in North and South America, as well as internationally through independent distributors.

Powell Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, and packages equipment and systems for the distribution, control, and management of electrical energy and process control systems.  The Company serves industrial customers such as oil and gas producers, refineries, petrochemical plants, transportation facilities, and public and private utilities.

Plug Power, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and commercializes fuel cell systems for electric lift trucks and materials handling equipment.  The Company offers its products globally to retail, grocery, and institutional food distribution centers as well as manufacturing facilities.

Sensata Technologies Holding plc manufactures and distributes electronic components. The Company offers automotive sensors, motor protectors, circuit breakers, thermostats, pressure sensors, and switches. Sensata Technologies Holding serves energy, aerospace, agriculture, automotive, and construction industries worldwide.

Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. provides engineered thermal solutions for process industries. The Company offers thermal solutions that also referred as heat tracing, provide an external heat source to pipes, vessels, and instruments for the purposes of freeze protection, temperature and flow maintenance, environmental monitoring, and surface snow and ice melting.

Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited manufactures power generation equipment. The Company produces and sells thermal generator set, nuclear power units, wind power equipment, power transmission and distribution equipment, and other products. Shanghai Electric Group also manufactures environmental protection equipment.

Shanghai Electric Group Company (601727 CH)

Henan Pinggao Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electrical equipment. The Company produces high pressure plates, high voltage equipment, circuit breakers, switches, insulated switchgears, and other products. Henan Pinggao Electric also operates import and export businesses.

Teco Electric & Machinery Co., Ltd. manufactures household appliances, industrial motors, and smart cards.  The Company produces air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, dryers, single-phase motors, three-phase motors, inverters, rotary compressors, stepping motors, gear motors, and generators.

Alstom T&D India Limited manufactures a range of power transmission and distribution equipment. The Company builds high- and medium-voltage substations and develop technologies to manage power grids worldwide.

LS Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes electrical power equipment. The Company produces smart power equipment, smart automation equipment, smart railway equipment, and other related products. LS Electric also develops smart grid, micro grid, energy storage systems, and metal products.

Sunwoda Electronic Company Limited develops, designs, produces and sells li-ion battery module.  The company also produces membrate switches and precision structures.

KEI Industries Limited manufactures cables and stainless steel wires for the building and construction, defense, telecommunications, and other industries.

Shanghai Zhixin Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets electric equipment, including bus line slots, switch boxes, transformers, electric cables, and other related products.

Shanghai Zhixin Electric Co, Ltd. (600517 CH)

Amara Raja Batteries Limited specializes in the manufacture of industrial and automotive batteries. The Company manufactures industrial batteries primarily for the telecom and UPS sectors. Amara Raja manufactures automotive batteries for the original equipment manufacturers and the aftermarket.

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures wind generator sets, provides consulting service in building and operating wind generating plants, builds and operates middle-sized wind generating plants.

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK)

Sunrun Inc. provides solar energy solutions. The Company installs, monitors, and maintains solar panels on homeowners' roofs to supply solar electricity. Sunrun serves customers in the United States.

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Sunrun Inc (RUN US)

Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Supports discussed in recent weeks have held, including 3900 on $SPX, $293 on $QQQ, and $177-178 on $IWM. These levels could be tested again...

Vermilion Research

Sunrun Inc: New Level 2 EV Charger & Other Drivers

Sunrun delivered a solid result, surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts. The company exceeded its volume projection and had almost...

Baptista Research

Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

We still see the market as being in pullback mode; the $SPX, $QQQ $NDX, and $IWM $RUT are all testing 50-day MA support, the first big area of...

Vermilion Research

Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

$SPX $QQQ $IWM Pullback Underway as Rising $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind; Commodities $DJP $BCOM Attempting to Break Out....

Vermilion Research

Sunrun Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Focus On Multifamily Housing & Other Drivers

This is our first report on Sunrun and the company continues its strong momentum of penetrating the residential solar market. In the last quarter...

Baptista Research

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