Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years</li>
<li>This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown</li>
<li>We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets</li>
</ul>


Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years
This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown
We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets


Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

<ul>
<li>There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data</li>
<li>The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector </li>
<li>In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months</li>
</ul>


There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data
The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector 
In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months


<ul>
<li>In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets</li>
<li>We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements</li>
<li>The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view <a href="https://vimeo.com/911098574/5874dfd757?share=copy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this 3-minute version</a> with a few highlights.</li>
</ul>


In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets
We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements
The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view this 3-minute version with a few highlights.


Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

<ul>
<li>We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.</li>
<li>There is plenty of local news about city-level project approvals and a growing number of developers announced how many of theirs have been whitelisted.</li>
<li>The big question is what proportion of the whitelisted projects will get the actual loans.</li>
</ul>


We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.
There is plenty of local news about city-level project approvals and a growing number of developers announced how many of theirs have been whitelisted.
The big question is what proportion of the whitelisted projects will get the actual loans.


<ul>
<li>China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023</li>
<li>Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence </li>
</ul>


China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023
Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023
In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence 


China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

China

Sunac China Holdings Limited is a real estate development company.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)

Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China Property - Take a tour of these four data visualizations/animations of the city-level house price changes to get a finer perspective on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: "Stabilize It"

In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing as of Nov 19, 20204 - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major...

Robert Ciemniak

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China: As the Two Meetings kick off this week, our China Property Outlook 2024 webinar from February dives deeper into the China housing market,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Red-Hot Whitelists

We highlight the latest policy developments with the wave of developer projects getting whitelisted for financing support.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

China Property / Housing Markets: Real Estate Foresight's take on the 2024 outlook for new home sales, new starts, and the major themes for the...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)