Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<p>Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.</p>

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>A "Buyback" is where (for our purposes) a publicly-listed company repurchases its shares from existing shareholders, sometimes in the market, sometimes in a structured buyback off exchange, and sometimes at a price higher than market price (in this insight, we will use the nouns "Buy-back" and "Buyback" interchangeably; the official regulatory documents in India often use the form with the hyphen).</p><p>When companies use excess cash to buy back shares, they often not only end up optimising their capital structure but also <em>"achieve</em>" EPS accretion with the aid of a reduction in the total share count of the company. Some companies use buy-backs to support their share prices during sluggish periods and others attempt to use it as a defence mechanism against hostile takeover situations.  Still others in India use it to return capital to their promoters.</p><p>All that is pretty well-known.</p><p>In India, such Buy-backs are governed by the <a href="https://www.sebi.gov.in/legal/regulations/jul-2019/securities-and-exchange-board-of-india-buy-back-of-securities-regulations-2018-last-amended-on-april-17-2020-_40327.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SEBI (BUY-BACK OF SECURITIES) REGULATIONS, 2018</a> (last amended on 17th April 2020) and are principally executed through three main mechanisms - Tender Offers, On-Market Transactions, and Book-building Processes. </p><p>This insight is the first of a two-part series by Quiddity on Indian Buy-backs.</p><p>In this insight, we will look into the regulations that govern each of the buy-back mechanisms to discover the basis for how they get executed.</p>

A "Buyback" is where (for our purposes) a publicly-listed company repurchases its shares from existing shareholders, sometimes in the market, sometimes in a structured buyback off exchange, and sometimes at a price higher than market price (in this insight, we will use the nouns "Buy-back" and "Buyback" interchangeably; the official regulatory documents in India often use the form with the hyphen).When companies use excess cash to buy back shares, they often not only end up optimising their capital structure but also "achieve" EPS accretion with the aid of a reduction in the total share count of the company. Some companies use buy-backs to support their share prices during sluggish periods and others attempt to use it as a defence mechanism against hostile takeover situations.  Still others in India use it to return capital to their promoters.All that is pretty well-known.In India, such Buy-backs are governed by the SEBI (BUY-BACK OF SECURITIES) REGULATIONS, 2018 (last amended on 17th April 2020) and are principally executed through three main mechanisms - Tender Offers, On-Market Transactions, and Book-building Processes. This insight is the first of a two-part series by Quiddity on Indian Buy-backs.In this insight, we will look into the regulations that govern each of the buy-back mechanisms to discover the basis for how they get executed.

Quiddity India Buy-Back Guide 2021: Regulations & Patterns

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>HSIE Results Daily Sun Pharma: Suns Q1 revenue/EBITDA grew by 28%/55% YoY, led by robust growth across markets and restricted spends driving sharp operating leverage and margin expansion to 28.7% (+495bps YoY, +404bps QoQ). Its specialty business surprised positively despite the generic impact of Absorica (USD148mn, +6% QoQ, +90% YoY). The consistent traction seen in the past three quarters gives us comfort on the companys ability to execute its specialty pipeline and break even by FY23. Further scale-up in the specialty business will improve profit growth visibility and support rerating, in our view.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

HSIE Results Daily Sun Pharma: Suns Q1 revenue/EBITDA grew by 28%/55% YoY, led by robust growth across markets and restricted spends driving sharp operating leverage and margin expansion to 28.7% (+495bps YoY, +404bps QoQ). Its specialty business surprised positively despite the generic impact of Absorica (USD148mn, +6% QoQ, +90% YoY). The consistent traction seen in the past three quarters gives us comfort on the companys ability to execute its specialty pipeline and break even by FY23. Further scale-up in the specialty business will improve profit growth visibility and support rerating, in our view.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Sun Pharma, Shriram Transport Finance, JK Lakshmi Cement

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

<p>In the US, Sun diversifying into specialty products like Ilumya, Levulan, BromSite, Cequa, Xelpros, Odomzo, Yonsa, winlwvi etc. Key Risk: (i) Price erosion impact...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

In the US, Sun diversifying into specialty products like Ilumya, Levulan, BromSite, Cequa, Xelpros, Odomzo, Yonsa, winlwvi etc. Key Risk: (i) Price erosion impact...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries: Strong Q1 Beat on All Fronts but Upside Capped

<p>V-Guard Industries: V-Guard posted in-line but strong revenue growth of 58% YoY (HSIE 59%), clocking 2-year revenue CAGR of 7%. South region posted 50% YoY growth (1% 2-year CAGR) while non-south region registered 71% YoY growth (16% 2-year CAGR). Strong growth was visible across categories as Electronics (Stabilizer, UPS, etc), Electrical (Wires, Pump, etc) and Consumer Durables (Fan, Water Heater, KEA, etc) segments registered 62/58/55% YoY growth, clocking 2-year CAGR of 9/4/12%. Gross margin declined by 191/120bps YoY/QoQ to 31%.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

V-Guard Industries: V-Guard posted in-line but strong revenue growth of 58% YoY (HSIE 59%), clocking 2-year revenue CAGR of 7%. South region posted 50% YoY growth (1% 2-year CAGR) while non-south region registered 71% YoY growth (16% 2-year CAGR). Strong growth was visible across categories as Electronics (Stabilizer, UPS, etc), Electrical (Wires, Pump, etc) and Consumer Durables (Fan, Water Heater, KEA, etc) segments registered 62/58/55% YoY growth, clocking 2-year CAGR of 9/4/12%. Gross margin declined by 191/120bps YoY/QoQ to 31%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Sun Pharma, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Eicher Motors, Cadila Healthcare, V...

India

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals for domestic and international distribution. The Company's pharmaceutical portfolio includes drugs in the areas of diabetes, cardiology, neurology, psychiatry and  gastroenterology.

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Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN)

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Quiddity India Buy-Back Guide 2021: Regulations & Patterns

This insight is a basic primer of Indian buyback types, rules and regulations, and is part of a two-part series, with the other part being a

Travis Lundy

HSIE Results Daily: Sun Pharma, Shriram Transport Finance, JK Lakshmi Cement

Sun Pharma: Suns Q1 revenue/EBITDA grew by 28%/55% YoY, led by robust growth across markets and restricted spends driving sharp operating leverage...

HDFC Securities

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries: Strong Q1 Beat on All Fronts but Upside Capped

In the US, Sun diversifying into specialty products like Ilumya, Levulan, BromSite, Cequa, Xelpros, Odomzo, Yonsa, winlwvi etc. Key Risk: (i) Price...

ICICI Securities Limited

HSIE Results Daily: Sun Pharma, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Eicher Motors, Cadila Healthcare, V...

V-Guard Industries: V-Guard posted in-line but strong revenue growth of 58% YoY (HSIE 59%), clocking 2-year revenue CAGR of 7%. South region posted...

HDFC Securities

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