Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).</li>
<li>More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.</li>
<li>We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.</li>
</ul>


Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).
More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.
We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.


Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> is outperforming the domestic pharma industry and aims to expand its market share. Currently, India business contributes 19% of revenue. </li>
<li>The company’s largest revenue segment, the U.S. generic business continues to see pricing pressure. It plans to launch new products, including complex generics to combat the impact of price erosion.</li>
<li>Dr. Reddy also has around 13% revenue exposure to Russia and other CIS countries. Sharp depreciation of Russian currency will negatively impact revenue from the region.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) is outperforming the domestic pharma industry and aims to expand its market share. Currently, India business contributes 19% of revenue. 
The company’s largest revenue segment, the U.S. generic business continues to see pricing pressure. It plans to launch new products, including complex generics to combat the impact of price erosion.
Dr. Reddy also has around 13% revenue exposure to Russia and other CIS countries. Sharp depreciation of Russian currency will negatively impact revenue from the region.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): India Business Is the Only Bright Spot Amid Many Headwinds

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aurobindo-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19974:1" rel="noopener">Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN)</a> shares have corrected more than 40% from peak and are trading at discount to peers. The company’s U.S. business is under pressure, resulting in deteriorating profitability.</li>
<li>We are not seeing any immediate respite in the U.S. formulation business. Hence, investors can avoid Aurobindo Pharma shares.  </li>
<li>However, value unlocking through stake sale in injectable business can be a near-term catalyst, resulting in relief rally in the stock.</li>
</ul>



Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN) shares have corrected more than 40% from peak and are trading at discount to peers. The company’s U.S. business is under pressure, resulting in deteriorating profitability.
We are not seeing any immediate respite in the U.S. formulation business. Hence, investors can avoid Aurobindo Pharma shares.  
However, value unlocking through stake sale in injectable business can be a near-term catalyst, resulting in relief rally in the stock.


Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN): Pain Continues in the U.S. Formulation Business

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Emcure Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Emcure Pharmaceuticals Limited is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>EP is an Indian Pharmaceutical company engaged in the developing, manufacturing and globally marketing a broad range of pharmaceutical products across several major therapeutic areas. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the various aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Emcure Pharmaceuticals Limited is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
EP is an Indian Pharmaceutical company engaged in the developing, manufacturing and globally marketing a broad range of pharmaceutical products across several major therapeutic areas. 
In this note, we talk about the various aspects of the deal.


Emcure Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO - Proforma Earnings Were Strong but It Faces a Host of Legal Issues

India

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals for domestic and international distribution. The Company's pharmaceutical portfolio includes drugs in the areas of diabetes, cardiology, neurology, psychiatry and  gastroenterology.

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Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (SUNP IN)

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities are emerging as leadership -- add exposure. Today we are focusing on...

Vermilion Research

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): India Business Is the Only Bright Spot Amid Many Headwinds

Despite price erosion headwinds in North America generics and revenue exposure to Russia, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories look attractive due to its...

Tina Banerjee

Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN): Pain Continues in the U.S. Formulation Business

Aurobindo’s U.S. formulation business is witnessing price erosion, which is impacting the revenue and margin. However, value unlocking in...

Tina Banerjee

Emcure Pharmaceuticals Pre-IPO - Proforma Earnings Were Strong but It Faces a Host of Legal Issues

Emcure Pharmaceuticals Limited is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. It is the 12th largest Indian Pharmaceutical company.

Sumeet Singh

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