New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset Group (SUM) reported strong FY23 underlying earnings and annuity EBITDA, driven by robust resale and new sale gains, partly offset by higher costs.</li><li>All time high resale margins were the stand out, an extraordinary achievement given the weak housing market.</li><li>SUM guided for &gt;+10% growth in unit deliveries for FY24. Strong margins and an increased build rate suggests high demand for SUM's product. </li></ul>

Summerset Group (SUM) reported strong FY23 underlying earnings and annuity EBITDA, driven by robust resale and new sale gains, partly offset by higher costs.All time high resale margins were the stand out, an extraordinary achievement given the weak housing market.SUM guided for &gt;+10% growth in unit deliveries for FY24. Strong margins and an increased build rate suggests high demand for SUM's product. 

Summerset Group  - FY23 — Less Cash, More of Everything Else

<ul><li>After Ryman Healthcare's (RYM's) profit downgrade, Summerset's (SUM) early 2024 sales update looks even more impressive, as it suggests a meaningful proportion of company specific factors driving increased sales.</li><li>One area to watch will be FY24 build rate guidance (FB: 650; consensus: 623).</li><li>Build rates have been downgraded across all the aged care operators over the last year or so: will SUM be the first to increase? SUM is relatively levered but has &gt;100% cash recovery of capex and a supportive banking syndicate. </li></ul>

After Ryman Healthcare's (RYM's) profit downgrade, Summerset's (SUM) early 2024 sales update looks even more impressive, as it suggests a meaningful proportion of company specific factors driving increased sales.One area to watch will be FY24 build rate guidance (FB: 650; consensus: 623).Build rates have been downgraded across all the aged care operators over the last year or so: will SUM be the first to increase? SUM is relatively levered but has &gt;100% cash recovery of capex and a supportive banking syndicate. 

Summerset Group - FY23 Preview — Debt and Build Rate in Focus

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported record new sales and resales in 4Q23, with resales in particular ahead of our expectations.</li><li>The strong Q4 resales numbers resulted in FY23 resales up +16% from its weak FY22.</li><li>More importantly, resales as a proportion of overall stock for SUM is now back at its long-run average, indicating a normalised, or close to fully normalised, market. </li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported record new sales and resales in 4Q23, with resales in particular ahead of our expectations.The strong Q4 resales numbers resulted in FY23 resales up +16% from its weak FY22.More importantly, resales as a proportion of overall stock for SUM is now back at its long-run average, indicating a normalised, or close to fully normalised, market. 

Summerset Group - Good End to 2023; Even Better Start to 2024?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.</li>
<li>The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.</li>
<li>In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. </li>
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It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of operational activity to follow.
The Aged Care sector operates on a time scale, where impacts from climate change are highly relevant.
In addition, the elderly are at the centre of the business model, some of the most vulnerable members of society. 






<ul><li>On the face of it, little has changed in the aged care and NZ housing markets over the past six months.</li><li>House/unit prices are broadly flat and turnover remains a challenge.</li><li>But that hasn't stopped the aged care operators continuing to report record high sales numbers. </li></ul>

On the face of it, little has changed in the aged care and NZ housing markets over the past six months.House/unit prices are broadly flat and turnover remains a challenge.But that hasn't stopped the aged care operators continuing to report record high sales numbers. 

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

New Zealand

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

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Summerset Group Holdings (SUM NZ)

Summerset Group - FY23 — Less Cash, More of Everything Else

Summerset Group (SUM) reported strong FY23 underlying earnings and annuity EBITDA, driven by robust resale and new sale gains, partly offset by...

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group - FY23 Preview — Debt and Build Rate in Focus

Build rates have been downgraded across all the aged care operators over the last year or so: will SUM be the first to increase?

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group - Good End to 2023; Even Better Start to 2024?

Summerset (SUM) reported record new sales and resales in 4Q23, with resales in particular ahead of our expectations. The strong Q4 resales numbers...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector

It takes approximately 15 years for a retirement village to be built and reach cash flow maturity, with an additional several decades of...

Forsyth Barr

Aged Care Sector - Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index

vOn the face of it, little has changed in the aged care and NZ housing markets over the past six months. House/unit prices are broadly flat and...

Forsyth Barr

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