Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global Active Funds make tentative moves back in to Japanese equities after a 5-year decline.</li>
<li>Buying seen in Daiichi Sankyo, Keyence Corp and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with Japan capturing $1.3bn of new fund investment since September 2022.</li>
<li>Ownership levels still near record lows, with clear potential for further ownership growth from here.</li>
</ul>


Global Active Funds make tentative moves back in to Japanese equities after a 5-year decline.
Buying seen in Daiichi Sankyo, Keyence Corp and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with Japan capturing $1.3bn of new fund investment since September 2022.
Ownership levels still near record lows, with clear potential for further ownership growth from here.


Japan: Early Signs of a Potential Re-Weight

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>MUFG has assets of USD2,909,711m compared with USD471m at Mandala Multifinance</li>
<li>MUFG's profit is USD8,880m compared with USD44m at Mandala Multifinance</li>
<li>There is nothing wrong with expansion outside Japan, but perspective is key</li>
</ul>


MUFG has assets of USD2,909,711m compared with USD471m at Mandala Multifinance
MUFG's profit is USD8,880m compared with USD44m at Mandala Multifinance
There is nothing wrong with expansion outside Japan, but perspective is key


MUFG & PT Mandala Multifinance - Too Small To Matter, LT Perspective ROA Is Key

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-possible-us-2-2bn-placement-will-be-a-huge-deal-to-digest-but-it-s-not-all-bad" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-us-2-4bn-placement-larger-than-rumored-some-indications-of-finality" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the updates since our last note, as well as the performance of some of the past large primary raises in Japan.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, see here and here.
In this note, we will talk about the updates since our last note, as well as the performance of some of the past large primary raises in Japan.


Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Recent Updates and Comparison to past Deals

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>’s tender offer of JPY2,800 per share, a 12.6% premium to the undisturbed price (11 May).</li>
<li>There is no minimum acceptance condition. SBI and irrevocables from government entities represent 73.02% of voting rights, ensuring the implementation of tender squeeze-out procedures.</li>
<li>The special committee failed to unanimously recommend the offer. Minorities will feel short-changed as the outcome is predetermined and the offer tends to favour the government shareholders.</li>
</ul>



SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) has recommended SBI Holdings (8473 JP)’s tender offer of JPY2,800 per share, a 12.6% premium to the undisturbed price (11 May).
There is no minimum acceptance condition. SBI and irrevocables from government entities represent 73.02% of voting rights, ensuring the implementation of tender squeeze-out procedures.
The special committee failed to unanimously recommend the offer. Minorities will feel short-changed as the outcome is predetermined and the offer tends to favour the government shareholders.


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): SBI’s Contentious JPY2,800 Tender Offer

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> priced its IPO at JPY1,400 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$620 million. The shares will start trading on 21 April.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-bank-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:98721" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-bank-vs-sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:98866" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-bank-ipo-new-price-range-is-a-steal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99581" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank IPO: New Price Range Is a Steal</a>. </li>
<li>Peers have re-rated and our valuation analysis points to a fair value of around JPY1,900 per share, 36% above the IPO price. Therefore, the IPO price remains attractive.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) priced its IPO at JPY1,400 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$620 million. The shares will start trading on 21 April.
We previously discussed the IPO in Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case, Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank and Rakuten Bank IPO: New Price Range Is a Steal. 
Peers have re-rated and our valuation analysis points to a fair value of around JPY1,900 per share, 36% above the IPO price. Therefore, the IPO price remains attractive.


Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.  Sumitomo Mitsui Card Co., SMBC Leasing Co., and The Japanese Research Institute, Ltd. joined the Group in Feb., 2003. The Company manages financial operations for its subsidiaries.  The Group provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Japan: Early Signs of a Potential Re-Weight

Global Equity Funds make tentative moves back in to Japan after a 5-year decline. Ownership levels remain near record lows, so potential for...

Steven Holden

MUFG & PT Mandala Multifinance - Too Small To Matter, LT Perspective ROA Is Key

MUFG's purchase of Mandala in Indonesia may sound enticing, but the reality is that this is too small to matter, while perspective shows no major...

Daniel Tabbush

Rakuten US$2.4bn Placement - Recent Updates and Comparison to past Deals

Rakuten (4755 JP) aims to raise up to US$2.4bn (JPY323bn) via a global offering. In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note. and...

Sumeet Singh

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP): SBI’s Contentious JPY2,800 Tender Offer

The special committee failed to unanimously recommend the offer. Minorities will feel short-changed as the outcome is predetermined and the offer...

Arun George

Rakuten Bank IPO: Trading Debut

Peers have re-rated and our valuation analysis points to a fair value of around JPY1,900 per share, 36% above the IPO price. Therefore, the IPO...

Arun George

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