Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

iShares Global Healthcare ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.</li>
<li>MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
<li>This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe</li>
</ul>


As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe


Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/straumann-holding-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22493:1" rel="noopener">Straumann Holding AG (STMN SW)</a> is the global leader in dental implantology, with ~29% market share. With multi-brand implant portfolio, the company is well-positioned to capture the market opportunity.  </li>
<li>Straumann raised expectations for 2022 organic revenue growth to the mid-teen percentage range from low double-digit percentage range earlier, versus the strong comparative year (+42% organic revenue growth in 2021).</li>
<li>Straumann has significantly expanded its addressable market to CHF18B+. To achieve the company’s ambition of CHF5B revenue by 2030, an average organic growth rate of ~10% annually is needed.</li>
</ul>



Straumann Holding AG (STMN SW) is the global leader in dental implantology, with ~29% market share. With multi-brand implant portfolio, the company is well-positioned to capture the market opportunity.  
Straumann raised expectations for 2022 organic revenue growth to the mid-teen percentage range from low double-digit percentage range earlier, versus the strong comparative year (+42% organic revenue growth in 2021).
Straumann has significantly expanded its addressable market to CHF18B+. To achieve the company’s ambition of CHF5B revenue by 2030, an average organic growth rate of ~10% annually is needed.


Straumann Holding AG (STMN SW): Strong Organic Revenue Growth Indicates Continued Business Recovery

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Just over a year ago, leading Korean dental implant and dentistry supply company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osstem-implant-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1450:1" rel="noopener">Osstem Implant (048260 KS)</a> announced the largest-ever embezzlement case in Korea. The stock was suspended.</li>
<li>There were fears about forced selling by the founder, and PE funds circled. Activist KCGI probably bought in Q3 but built a 5+% stake by end-December 2022.</li>
<li>Korean PE Firms MBK and Unison Capital have now launched an MBO-style Tender Offer to buy 2.4-11.2mm shares in the company at a sharp premium to the pre-activism undisturbed price.</li>
</ul>


Just over a year ago, leading Korean dental implant and dentistry supply company Osstem Implant (048260 KS) announced the largest-ever embezzlement case in Korea. The stock was suspended.
There were fears about forced selling by the founder, and PE funds circled. Activist KCGI probably bought in Q3 but built a 5+% stake by end-December 2022.
Korean PE Firms MBK and Unison Capital have now launched an MBO-style Tender Offer to buy 2.4-11.2mm shares in the company at a sharp premium to the pre-activism undisturbed price.


MBK/Unison Capital Korea Do a Deal for Osstem Implant (048260 KS) Thwarting Activist KCGI

Switzerland

Straumann Holding AG develops, produces and sells dental implants.  The Company manufactures metal devices implantable in the jaw, in place of missing teeth, to which prosthetic teeth are attached.  Straumann has subsidiaries throughout Europe and North America.  The Company sells its products worldwide.

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Straumann Holding (STMN SE)

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

We have recommended shifting to defensives throughout Feb/March due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on $ACWI. We highlight buys within...

Vermilion Research

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

Straumann Holding AG (STMN SW): Strong Organic Revenue Growth Indicates Continued Business Recovery

During 9M 2022, Straumann reported organic revenue growth of 18% YoY. The company has raised 2022 organic revenue growth guidance to the mid-teen...

Tina Banerjee

MBK/Unison Capital Korea Do a Deal for Osstem Implant (048260 KS) Thwarting Activist KCGI

Osstem Implant had a scandal, trading halted, then shareholder changes, now an Activist campaign. Today it announced a Tender Offer by MBK to take...

Travis Lundy

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