New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Slow start to 2H23, stronger finish required to hit guidance: STU guided to FY23 EBIT of NZ$28m–$32m which implies 2H23 EBIT of NZ$8m–$12m</li><li>Solid cash earnings runs down inventory and net debt: The key positive from the update was further evidence that STU's focus on its balance sheet is paying off, with inventory and net debt continuing to reduce</li><li>Navigating  a weaker demand environment: FY24 is likely to be another challenging year given the exit run-rates from FY23</li></ul>

Slow start to 2H23, stronger finish required to hit guidance: STU guided to FY23 EBIT of NZ$28m–$32m which implies 2H23 EBIT of NZ$8m–$12mSolid cash earnings runs down inventory and net debt: The key positive from the update was further evidence that STU's focus on its balance sheet is paying off, with inventory and net debt continuing to reduceNavigating  a weaker demand environment: FY24 is likely to be another challenging year given the exit run-rates from FY23

<ul><li>Steel and Tube (STU) has provided FY23 normalised EBIT guidance NZ$28-32m and 2H23 volumes down -10-15% on 1H23.</li><li>There has been a broad based softening in demand and high cost inventory is impacting margins.</li><li>EBIT guidance is 24-32% below our current forecast of NZ$42m and implies 2H23 EBIT of NZ$8-12m (NZ$20m 1H23).</li></ul>

Steel and Tube (STU) has provided FY23 normalised EBIT guidance NZ$28-32m and 2H23 volumes down -10-15% on 1H23.There has been a broad based softening in demand and high cost inventory is impacting margins.EBIT guidance is 24-32% below our current forecast of NZ$42m and implies 2H23 EBIT of NZ$8-12m (NZ$20m 1H23).

Steel and Tube (STU): Trading Update and Earnings Guidance

<ul><li>Solid result despite falling volumes: STU reported a 1H23 normalised EBIT down -5% to NZ$21.5m</li><li>Focussing in on the balance sheet: STU have renewed its focus on its balance sheet</li><li>Navigating a softer demand outlook: Higher interest rates and a tight labour market is moderating activity across most sectors</li></ul>

Solid result despite falling volumes: STU reported a 1H23 normalised EBIT down -5% to NZ$21.5mFocussing in on the balance sheet: STU have renewed its focus on its balance sheetNavigating a softer demand outlook: Higher interest rates and a tight labour market is moderating activity across most sectors

Steel & Tube Holdings: 1H23 Result — Reinforcing Margins

<ul><li>Steel and Tube (STU) reported 1H23 normalised EBIT of NZ$21.5m broadly in line with our expectations.</li><li>STU have been focused on strengthening their balance sheet with net debt -NZ$10m largely due to a decline in inventory by -NZ$18m.</li><li>STU provided no FY23 guidance but do expect steel demand to moderate as challenging macro trends continue, with activity already easing in the residential division</li></ul>

Steel and Tube (STU) reported 1H23 normalised EBIT of NZ$21.5m broadly in line with our expectations.STU have been focused on strengthening their balance sheet with net debt -NZ$10m largely due to a decline in inventory by -NZ$18m.STU provided no FY23 guidance but do expect steel demand to moderate as challenging macro trends continue, with activity already easing in the residential division

Steel and Tube: 1H23 Result – Initial Thoughts

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand: Residential consents off slightly; Inventory continues to grow; Auckland house sales softer than in lockdown; Residential construction intentions at a new low, commercial bounces back</li><li>Australia: Aussie house prices keep marching down; Residential approvals bounce</li><li>International: China - Total building starts tick up; property woes trigger decline in global cement output</li></ul>

New Zealand: Residential consents off slightly; Inventory continues to grow; Auckland house sales softer than in lockdown; Residential construction intentions at a new low, commercial bounces backAustralia: Aussie house prices keep marching down; Residential approvals bounceInternational: China - Total building starts tick up; property woes trigger decline in global cement output

New Zealand

Steel & Tube Holdings Limited produces and distributes steel throughout New Zealand and its products include steel fasteners, nuts, bolts and screws.  The Company's other activities include steel reinforcing.

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Steel & Tube Holdings (STU NZ)

Steel & Tube Holdings: Down the Tubes

Steel and Tube (STU) has provided FY23 EBIT guidance which implies a significant slowdown in 2H23 earnings, driven by both lower volumes and gross...

Forsyth Barr

Steel and Tube (STU): Trading Update and Earnings Guidance

Steel and Tube (STU) has provided FY23 normalised EBIT guidance NZ$28-32m and 2H23 volumes down -10-15% on 1H23; There has been a broad based...

Forsyth Barr

Steel & Tube Holdings: 1H23 Result — Reinforcing Margins

Steel and Tube (STU) reported a tidy 1H23 result which was in line with our expectations; STU expects demand for steel will continue to moderate...

Forsyth Barr

Steel and Tube: 1H23 Result – Initial Thoughts

Steel and Tube (STU) reported 1H23 normalised EBIT of NZ$21.5m broadly in line with our expectations and have been focused on strengthening their...

Forsyth Barr

Building Weekly (05-Oct-2022)

New Zealand: Residential consents off slightly; Inventory continues to grow; Auckland house sales softer than in lockdown; Residential construction...

Forsyth Barr

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