Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-June 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends were mixed</li>
<li>The key positive trend to end-June was the declining cost of risk, boosting post-provision profitability; nonetheless, the prospect of worsening delinquency could drive a reversal in NPA provision charges</li>
<li>We believe HDFC Bank can best face credit quality deterioration; optically cheap State Bank of India is exposed to higher provisioning needs, as is ICICI Bank</li>
</ul>


Our profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-June 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends were mixed
The key positive trend to end-June was the declining cost of risk, boosting post-provision profitability; nonetheless, the prospect of worsening delinquency could drive a reversal in NPA provision charges
We believe HDFC Bank can best face credit quality deterioration; optically cheap State Bank of India is exposed to higher provisioning needs, as is ICICI Bank


Indian Banks Screener: Credit Quality Turning?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>State Bank of India: Despite a multi-quarter high loan growth (~16% YoY) and lower credit costs at 0.7% (annualised), SBIN missed expectations, driven by one-off MTM losses (INR65bn)</li><li>Slippages were elevated QoQ (~1.5%), driven by SME, agri and retail including INR20bn from the restructured portfolio (~1% of loans)</li><li>The management is confident of a sustained business momentum from improving utilisation of corporate credit limits and traction in SMEs, which should likely support incremental loan growth</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

State Bank of India: Despite a multi-quarter high loan growth (~16% YoY) and lower credit costs at 0.7% (annualised), SBIN missed expectations, driven by one-off MTM losses (INR65bn)Slippages were elevated QoQ (~1.5%), driven by SME, agri and retail including INR20bn from the restructured portfolio (~1% of loans)The management is confident of a sustained business momentum from improving utilisation of corporate credit limits and traction in SMEs, which should likely support incremental loan growthContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, Bharat Petroleum Corporation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Strong Loan Growth Performance: On the business front, the bank’s loan growth remained strong and was up by 16%/3% YoY/QoQ compared to 11%/6% YoY/QoQ in Q4FY22.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Continued Strong Asset quality: Asset quality improved YoY with G/NNPAs declining by 140/80bps and remained stable QoQ at 3.9%/1%.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Operating performance: Domestic NIM, reported at 3.23%, moderated by 20bps QoQ and improved 8bps YoY.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Strong Loan Growth Performance: On the business front, the bank’s loan growth remained strong and was up by 16%/3% YoY/QoQ compared to 11%/6% YoY/QoQ in Q4FY22.Continued Strong Asset quality: Asset quality improved YoY with G/NNPAs declining by 140/80bps and remained stable QoQ at 3.9%/1%.Operating performance: Domestic NIM, reported at 3.23%, moderated by 20bps QoQ and improved 8bps YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

State Bank of India - PAT Lower than Estimates; Robust Momentum in Loan Growth Continues

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Typically net interest margins and loan volume are what matter most for banks</li>
<li>ICICI is showing strength in both core financial metrics, but also in credit costs</li>
<li>Of the large 3 banks in India, ICICI may continue to show the best marginal deltaCI</li>
</ul>


Typically net interest margins and loan volume are what matter most for banks
ICICI is showing strength in both core financial metrics, but also in credit costs
Of the large 3 banks in India, ICICI may continue to show the best marginal deltaCI


Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

<ul>
<li>Major theft of Rs 342 mn ($4.3mn) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> 's currency chest near Mumbai</li>
<li>Apparently a single ICICI Bank staff responsible and shockingly had sole access to the currency chest </li>
<li>Reflects extremely poorly on ICICI Bank's currency chest security protocols and processes and heightens concerns of reputational and operational risk at the bank</li>
</ul>


Major theft of Rs 342 mn ($4.3mn) in ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) 's currency chest near Mumbai
Apparently a single ICICI Bank staff responsible and shockingly had sole access to the currency chest 
Reflects extremely poorly on ICICI Bank's currency chest security protocols and processes and heightens concerns of reputational and operational risk at the bank


Major Theft in ICICI Bank’s Currency Chest Heightens Concerns of Poor Controls

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

Indian Banks Screener: Credit Quality Turning?

Indian bank showed broadly positive results to 1QFY23; yet we believe that the credit quality cycle may soon turn; rising delinquency will hit SBI...

Victor Galliano

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, Bharat Petroleum Corporation

Slippages were elevated QoQ (~1.5%), driven by SME, agri and retail including INR20bn from the restructured portfolio (~1% of loans)

HDFC Securities

State Bank of India - PAT Lower than Estimates; Robust Momentum in Loan Growth Continues

SBI reported lower-than-expected earnings of Rs 60.7 Bn in Q1FY23 (down 7%/33 YoY/QoQ), mainly due to lower NIMs (down 13bps QoQ) and treasury losses.

Axis Direct

India Banks - Solid Strength at ICICI

There are vast differences amongst the largest 3 banks in India, that favor ICICI. Margin expansion, LDR expansion, net interest income growth, and...

Daniel Tabbush

Major Theft in ICICI Bank’s Currency Chest Heightens Concerns of Poor Controls

Major theft at ICICI Bank heightens concerns of poor security protocols reflecting on operational risk management and reputational risk at the bank.

Hemindra Hazari

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