Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our Indian bank profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-September 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends generally softened</li>
<li>The solid macro-economic backdrop has supported credit quality to September-end, as the declining NPA ratios and cost of risk show; yet India may be approaching peak level for its macro-indicators</li>
<li>Much good news is discounted by the macro and easy credit conditions; we are negative on State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, but we remain positive on HDFC Bank</li>
</ul>


Our Indian bank profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-September 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends generally softened
The solid macro-economic backdrop has supported credit quality to September-end, as the declining NPA ratios and cost of risk show; yet India may be approaching peak level for its macro-indicators
Much good news is discounted by the macro and easy credit conditions; we are negative on State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, but we remain positive on HDFC Bank


Indian Banks Screener to September-End 2022: Credit Delinquency in Check, for Now

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise around US$500m via selling a 1.4% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a>. </li>
<li>This won’t be the first selldown by GoI as it has been reducing its stake since 2019. We have covered a number of the past deals in the name.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise around US$500m via selling a 1.4% stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN). 
This won’t be the first selldown by GoI as it has been reducing its stake since 2019. We have covered a number of the past deals in the name.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


Axis Bank Placement - Second Deal for the Month but This Is Very Well Flagged

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Administrator of the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) is offering 46.53m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> at a floor price of INR 830.63/share.</li>
<li>This will take SUUTI's stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> to zero and remove an overhang on the stock.</li>
<li>Coming in close to Bain's partial stake sale last week, the stock could trade heavy. But <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> still trades cheaper than peers.</li>
</ul>


The Administrator of the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) is offering 46.53m shares of Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) at a floor price of INR 830.63/share.
This will take SUUTI's stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) to zero and remove an overhang on the stock.
Coming in close to Bain's partial stake sale last week, the stock could trade heavy. But Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) still trades cheaper than peers.


Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Last of the SUUTI Selldown Removes Overhang

Five Star Business Finance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/five-star-business-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35238:1" rel="noopener">Five Star Business Finance (0958461D IN)</a> is looking to raise around US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. </li>
<li>Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Five Star Business Finance (0958461D IN) is looking to raise around US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. 
Five-Star Business is a non-banking financial company (NBFC-ND-SI) that provides secured business loans to micro-entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about valuations.


Five-Star Business IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>State Bank of India: SBIN reported a strong all-around performance, leading to earnings well above our estimates</li><li>Balance sheet growth gained further traction across segments, with an impressive loan growth of +21% YoY</li><li>Asset quality continued to remain robust, with slippages at ~0.4% (albeit net of inter-quarter upgrades) and a steady restructured pool at 0.9% and SMA-I+II at 0.3%</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

State Bank of India: SBIN reported a strong all-around performance, leading to earnings well above our estimatesBalance sheet growth gained further traction across segments, with an impressive loan growth of +21% YoYAsset quality continued to remain robust, with slippages at ~0.4% (albeit net of inter-quarter upgrades) and a steady restructured pool at 0.9% and SMA-I+II at 0.3%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, GAIL, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

Indian Banks Screener to September-End 2022: Credit Delinquency in Check, for Now

Strong macro and easy credit conditions have supported Indian banks' returns, yet India's macro prospects may be close to peaking; we are negative...

Victor Galliano

Axis Bank Placement - Second Deal for the Month but This Is Very Well Flagged

The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise around US$500m via selling a 1.4% stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN). This isn't the first selldown by...

Sumeet Singh

Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Last of the SUUTI Selldown Removes Overhang

SUUTI's sale of 46.5m shares (1.55% of shares out) could lead to a short-term price drop but removes a longer-term overhang. Axis Bank trades...

Brian Freitas

Five-Star Business IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Five Star Business Finance is looking to raise around US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we'll talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, GAIL, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

Asset quality continued to remain robust, with slippages at ~0.4% (albeit net of inter-quarter upgrades) and a steady restructured pool at 0.9% and...

HDFC Securities

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