Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<div><div><div>Let me begin by revisiting the road map for the bear market in EM equities which I first outlined in my role as EM equity strategist for Deutsche Bank towards the end of 2010 and the start of 2011, at a time when the consensus outlook for EM economies and equities was almost unanimously bullish.</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>I made a number of tentative predictions and recommendations, which were generally greeted with a combination of indifference and skepticism and on occasion outright hostility among most, though not quite all of the bank&rsquo;s clients.</div><div>&nbsp;</div></div></div><div><div><strong>It seems that we may now be entering the final stage of EM relative underperformance, in line with our expectations in our initiation last year where we posited the relative trade was 2/3rds through.</strong></div></div>

Let me begin by revisiting the road map for the bear market in EM equities which I first outlined in my role as EM equity strategist for Deutsche Bank towards the end of 2010 and the start of 2011, at a time when the consensus outlook for EM economies and equities was almost unanimously bullish.&nbsp;I made a number of tentative predictions and recommendations, which were generally greeted with a combination of indifference and skepticism and on occasion outright hostility among most, though not quite all of the bank&rsquo;s clients.&nbsp;It seems that we may now be entering the final stage of EM relative underperformance, in line with our expectations in our initiation last year where we posited the relative trade was 2/3rds through.

A Roadmap of the EM Bear Market and Three Myths about the China Bull Market

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>We all know of the abysmal condition of India&rsquo;s state banks. </strong></p><p>Bank of India reports a harrowing rise in its NPLs. Punjab National, Canara, Central Bank of India, Bank of Baroda and Union Bank of India are all similarly worrying.</p><p>These six banks are not inconsequential; they are the six most prolific banks in India, after the infamous State Bank of India.</p><p>What is happening in India is not limited to the state banks, nor is this a benign NPL cycle. It is severe and likely to persist for some time.</p><p>...more below the fold.</p>

We all know of the abysmal condition of India&rsquo;s state banks. Bank of India reports a harrowing rise in its NPLs. Punjab National, Canara, Central Bank of India, Bank of Baroda and Union Bank of India are all similarly worrying.These six banks are not inconsequential; they are the six most prolific banks in India, after the infamous State Bank of India.What is happening in India is not limited to the state banks, nor is this a benign NPL cycle. It is severe and likely to persist for some time....more below the fold.

Poor Credit Metrics Not Limited to State Banks in India

Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The discourse on Asia&rsquo;s &ldquo;rise&rdquo; is dominated by China and India, countries whose vast populations and buoyant economies have captured the imagination of international investors, journalists and policy analysts.</p><p>&ldquo;Chindia&rdquo;-scented rhetoric abounds with catchphrases that state the obvious, but whose import is less so. China has the hardware, India the software; India needs China&rsquo;s roads, China could do with India&rsquo;s political inclusiveness. <em>Given how fundamentally different India and China are, though, such &ldquo;lessons learnt&rdquo; are of limited value.</em></p><p><em><strong>The more relevant comparison in Asia &ndash; and one with enormous implications for the global economy &ndash; is between India and its civilisational sibling, Indonesia.</strong></em> These two eclectic democracies share more in common than India and China, yet they are rarely hyphenated.</p><p>Last year&rsquo;s elections saw the elevation of a new breed of popular leader in both countries. Narendra Modi, whose family ran a tea stall, has risen from near the bottom of India&rsquo;s caste and class hierarchies. Joko Widodo is from a similarly underprivileged background.</p>

The discourse on Asia&rsquo;s &ldquo;rise&rdquo; is dominated by China and India, countries whose vast populations and buoyant economies have captured the imagination of international investors, journalists and policy analysts.&ldquo;Chindia&rdquo;-scented rhetoric abounds with catchphrases that state the obvious, but whose import is less so. China has the hardware, India the software; India needs China&rsquo;s roads, China could do with India&rsquo;s political inclusiveness. Given how fundamentally different India and China are, though, such &ldquo;lessons learnt&rdquo; are of limited value.The more relevant comparison in Asia &ndash; and one with enormous implications for the global economy &ndash; is between India and its civilisational sibling, Indonesia. These two eclectic democracies share more in common than India and China, yet they are rarely hyphenated.Last year&rsquo;s elections saw the elevation of a new breed of popular leader in both countries. Narendra Modi, whose family ran a tea stall, has risen from near the bottom of India&rsquo;s caste and class hierarchies. Joko Widodo is from a similarly underprivileged background.

The Rise of Asia: India and Indonesia's Shared Challenges and Opportunities.

Ex-Buyside Principal, now doing Independent Secondary Research on Indian Equities

Pawan Sachdeva

<p>This work has been done to look at:</p><ol><li>How finances of state of Karnataka have moved over last decade ?</li><li>Detailed Break Up of Revenue, Expenditure, Capital Expenditure and subsidies  </li><li>Key Budget Comments on Drinking Water, Energy etc.</li></ol><p>Who will have have interest in reading this presentation</p><ul><li>Some one who follows Indian Economy</li><li>Some one looking at Karnataka State as “area of operation” in any field.</li></ul>

This work has been done to look at:How finances of state of Karnataka have moved over last decade ?Detailed Break Up of Revenue, Expenditure, Capital Expenditure and subsidies  Key Budget Comments on Drinking Water, Energy etc.Who will have have interest in reading this presentationSome one who follows Indian EconomySome one looking at Karnataka State as “area of operation” in any field.

A close look at the Financials and Budget of Karnataka State

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<p><em><strong>*Poor 2Q21 Result: </strong></em>DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;</p><p><em><strong>*Watch Your Credit: </strong></em>We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and </p><p><strong><em>*Deal Distractions Mount: </em></strong> While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.</p>

*Poor 2Q21 Result: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 2Q21 results of SGD 1.7 bn, decreasing SGD 304  mn (15.1%) on a linked quarter basis. The weaker results were driven primarily by an overall revenue decline, a loan provision increase, and a higher tax rate;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. By our calculation, and given the NCOs of SGD 69 mn, we find that net new NPLs have re-accelerated – up SGD 266 mn or increasing 18.0% annualized versus SGD 85 mn or 5.6% in 1Q21. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn – amounting now to about two quarters of operating results; and *Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

A Roadmap of the EM Bear Market and Three Myths about the China Bull Market

Let me begin by revisiting the road map for the bear market in EM equities which I first outlined in my role as EM equity strategist for Deutsche...

John-Paul Smith

Poor Credit Metrics Not Limited to State Banks in India

We all know of the abysmal condition of India’s state banks. Bank of India reports a harrowing rise in its NPLs. Punjab National, Canara, Central...

Daniel Tabbush

The Rise of Asia: India and Indonesia's Shared Challenges and Opportunities.

The discourse on Asia’s “rise” is dominated by China and India, countries whose vast populations and buoyant economies have captured the...

Tan Chin-Hwee

A close look at the Financials and Budget of Karnataka State

This work has been done to look at: How finances of state of Karnataka have moved over last decade ? Detailed Break Up of Revenue, Expenditure,...

Pawan Sachdeva

DBS Group Holdings – Bad Print

DBS: DBS QOQ 2Q21 results declined 15.1% due to poor revenues and higher provisions. We worry that DBS has not caught the LVB risk, net new NPLs re...

Thomas J. Monaco

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