Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We believe that India is entering a stage of maximum risk. Increasing political uncertainty is adding, even more, twists and turns for the traveller on Indian roads. Our recommendation is to remain engaged with India but be very watchful.

We believe that India is entering a stage of maximum risk. Increasing political uncertainty is adding, even more, twists and turns for the traveller on Indian roads. Our recommendation is to remain engaged with India but be very watchful.

The Indian Economy and Public-Sector Banks – On the Edge of A Precipice

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Capital Hole Has Been Dug: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) is in desperate need of a INR 550 bn capital infusion post the Nirav Modi fraud; this amounts to 134% of stated equity, in our view.* No Credible Plan in Place: Despite knowing of this fraud for several months, PNB nor the government would appear to have any form of credible bailout plan in place. On top of the interest reversals associated from this fraud, we find that the bank is seeing additional pressures on funding costs while…

* Capital Hole Has Been Dug: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) is in desperate need of a INR 550 bn capital infusion post the Nirav Modi fraud; this amounts to 134% of stated equity, in our view.* No Credible Plan in Place: Despite knowing of this fraud for several months, PNB nor the government would appear to have any form of credible bailout plan in place. On top of the interest reversals associated from this fraud, we find that the bank is seeing additional pressures on funding costs while…

Punjab National Bank – That Sinking Feeling

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The question is somewhat rhetorical. Perhaps the customer experience will be better at private banks than government banks, in India. The story may be similar for capital levels and non-performing loans (NPLs). But the figures are not completely one-sided. We believe that the long-held view that India’s private banks are so incredibly superior to India’s government banks begins to fall flat when we examine the pace of NPL formation. This applies not only to new NPLs from worsening credit…

The question is somewhat rhetorical. Perhaps the customer experience will be better at private banks than government banks, in India. The story may be similar for capital levels and non-performing loans (NPLs). But the figures are not completely one-sided. We believe that the long-held view that India’s private banks are so incredibly superior to India’s government banks begins to fall flat when we examine the pace of NPL formation. This applies not only to new NPLs from worsening credit…

India Banks – Are Private Banks Really Better than Government Banks?

* Not a Pretty Girl: ICICI Bank's (ICICIBANK.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] stated NPLs amount to 10.6%; reserve cover is too light by INR 325 bn; and complying with regulatory capital standards will be a challenge. NIMs and growth will be a challenge on a go forward basis as well.* Awful FYE 4Q18 Results: Excluding the INR 26.9 bn net gain associated with a stake sale in ICICI Securities (ISEC.IN) and other losses, ICICI’s core operating result would have been staunchly negative at INR 12.7 bn – an…

* Not a Pretty Girl: ICICI Bank's (ICICIBANK.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] stated NPLs amount to 10.6%; reserve cover is too light by INR 325 bn; and complying with regulatory capital standards will be a challenge. NIMs and growth will be a challenge on a go forward basis as well.* Awful FYE 4Q18 Results: Excluding the INR 26.9 bn net gain associated with a stake sale in ICICI Securities (ISEC.IN) and other losses, ICICI’s core operating result would have been staunchly negative at INR 12.7 bn – an…

Macroeconomics

Since the publication of our January 2018 report, the  spread between one-year Indian G-SEC and the U.S. Treasury has declined approximately 50bps. After accounting for currency depreciation and transaction costs, a U.S.$ investor generated zero return in the Indian debt market during the first four months of the current year.  We estimate that prospectively foreign investors in Indian debt markets ....

Since the publication of our January 2018 report, the  spread between one-year Indian G-SEC and the U.S. Treasury has declined approximately 50bps. After accounting for currency depreciation and transaction costs, a U.S.$ investor generated zero return in the Indian debt market during the first four months of the current year.  We estimate that prospectively foreign investors in Indian debt markets ....

India: The Indian Rupee – Next Stop INR 70/USD, G-SEC 10-Year Yield – 8%

India

State Bank of India provides a wide range of banking and financial services to corporate, institutional, commercial, agricultural, industrial and individual customers throughout India.  The Bank also provides international banking to its Indian customers and has operations in other countries.

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State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)

The Indian Economy and Public-Sector Banks – On the Edge of A Precipice

We believe that India is entering a stage of maximum risk. Increasing political uncertainty is adding, even more, twists and turns for the...

ANTYA Investments

Punjab National Bank – That Sinking Feeling

* Capital Hole Has Been Dug: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) is in desperate need of a INR 550 bn capital infusion post the Nirav Modi fraud; this...

Thomas J. Monaco

India Banks – Are Private Banks Really Better than Government Banks?

The question is somewhat rhetorical. Perhaps the customer experience will be better at private banks than government banks, in India. The story may...

Daniel Tabbush

ICICI Bank – Taking the Lipstick Off

* Not a Pretty Girl: ICICI Bank's (ICICIBANK.IN/IBN.US) [ICICI] stated NPLs amount to 10.6%; reserve cover is too light by INR 325 bn; and...

Thomas J. Monaco

India: The Indian Rupee – Next Stop INR 70/USD, G-SEC 10-Year Yield – 8%

Since the publication of our January 2018 report, the spread between one-year Indian G-SEC and the U.S. Treasury has declined approximately 50bps....

ANTYA Investments

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