Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
<li>Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.</li>
<li>We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI-US), and China Internet (KWEB-US).
Is this just another bear market rally, or will indexes are able to make a higher low and start a new bull market? Either way, it's a start.
We highlight attractive stocks from a bottoms-up perspective, spanning several Sectors. Over half hail from Japan, where the TOPIX Small index is reversing its downtrend.


Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade</li>
<li>There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks</li>
<li>This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level</li>
</ul>


Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade
There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks
This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>DBS reported a weak set of 4Q21 results of SGD 1.4 bn, down SGD 307 mn (18.1%) linked quarter and driven by negative operating jaws; </li>
<li>While provisions weren’t reversed this quarter, reserves should still be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 1.1 bn – amounting to about a half quarter of operating results; and  </li>
<li>Three transactions in the span of a year is too much. DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before taking on those of other financial institutions. </li>
</ul>


DBS reported a weak set of 4Q21 results of SGD 1.4 bn, down SGD 307 mn (18.1%) linked quarter and driven by negative operating jaws; 
While provisions weren’t reversed this quarter, reserves should still be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 1.1 bn – amounting to about a half quarter of operating results; and  
Three transactions in the span of a year is too much. DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before taking on those of other financial institutions. 


DBS Group Holdings – Weak Print, But Credit Improves

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; </li>
<li>Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and </li>
<li>BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. </li>
</ul>


BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, given the generally ignored continued credit deterioration; 
Results were heavily reliant on a negative 10.0% tax rate for 4Q21, which goes away in 2022; and 
BNI recently announced a "me too" deal to acquire a 63.9% stake in Bank Mayora at 2x book, at a time when BNI’s own house is a dumpster fire. 


Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> released an impressive set of 3Q2021, driven by explosive triple-digit TPV growth in its Mitra business, which enables mom&amp;pop stores (Warungs) in Indonesia, along with higher take-rates.</li>
<li>The slower growth in marketplace was accompanied by lower S&amp;M costs, as the company transforms this business towards an online specialty store model, which is gaining traction.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> looks to be misunderstood by retail investors, presenting an opportunity after the post-IPO correction, with a number of new initiatives gaining momentum in Mitra and marketplace.</li>
</ul>



Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) released an impressive set of 3Q2021, driven by explosive triple-digit TPV growth in its Mitra business, which enables mom&amp;pop stores (Warungs) in Indonesia, along with higher take-rates.
The slower growth in marketplace was accompanied by lower S&amp;M costs, as the company transforms this business towards an online specialty store model, which is gaining traction.

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) looks to be misunderstood by retail investors, presenting an opportunity after the post-IPO correction, with a number of new initiatives gaining momentum in Mitra and marketplace.


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Empowering Mitra and Creating Shopfronts

United Kingdom

NatWest Group plc operates as a banking and financial services company. The Bank provides personal and business banking, consumer loans, asset and invoice finances, commercial and residential mortgages, credit cards, and financial planning services, as well as life, personal, and income protection insurance. NatWest Group serves clients worldwide.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services.

Barclays PLC is a global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management, and investment management services.

Bank of Georgia Group PLC operates as a bank. The Bank services includes retail banking and payment services, corporate and investment banking, and wealth management operations solutions. Bank of Georgia Group serves customers in the United Kingdom, Belarus, and Georgia.

Secure Trust Bank PLC accepts deposits and offers retail banking services.  The Company offers automobile and retail point of sale financing, and personal unsecured lending.

Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Retail Banking, UK Private banking, and Group Centre. The company provides private banking services, such as current accounts, deposit accounts, loans, overdrafts, and foreign exchange services; wealth planning services comprising estate and tax planning, pensions, and wealth preservation and generation; and discretionary investment management services, including asset management and developing tailored investment strategies. It also offers retail banking products and services, such as savings and current accounts; consumer finance products in motor finance, retail finance, and unsecured personal lending areas; and SME?s funding for asset finance, invoice finance, and real estate finance. In addition, the company offers commercial banking services comprising financing and cash transaction requirements of SMEs, as well as household cash management and insurance services. Further, the company offers leasing, debt collection, and property rental and management services. Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Metro Bank PLC provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers services such as current accounts, mortgages, safe deposit boxes, cash management, private banking, and debit and credit cards. Metro Bank conducts its business in the United Kingdom.

Paragon Group of Cos PLC provides lending services, including personal financing, vehicle financing, and an assortment of residential mortgage choices.  The Group's mortgage loans are secured on residential properties within the United Kingdom.  Paragon offers its full range of services on-line through interactive websites.

Aviva PLC operates as an international insurance company that provides all classes of general and life assurance, including fire, motor, marine, aviation, and transport insurance. The Company also offers a variety of financial services, including unit trusts, stockbroking, long-term savings, and fund management.

Legal & General Group plc is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides savings, risk and investment management services such as annuities, long-term savings, life assurance and financial protection products. Legal & General Group's products are sold through bank, building society relationships, Independent Financial Advisers and directly to customers.

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Limited provides a comprehensive range of financial products and services to retail and corporate customers.  Its products include retail banking, corporate banking, and treasury services.  The Company operates its branches in Hong Kong and China.

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Malayan Banking Berhad operates as a bank. The Company provides financial services such as insurance, asset management, stock broking, nominee services, venture capital, leasing, and Internet banking. Malayan Banking Berhad serves customers in South East Asia.

Ping An Bank Co Ltd provides a full range of commercial banking services including RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, discount, currency trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related services.

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

Bank of Beijing Company Ltd. attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The Bank offers short-, medium- and long-term loans, insurance, foreign exchange, international settlement, government bonds, and other products and services.

China Everbright Bank Company Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement, currency trading, and other services. China Everbright Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

Cautiously Optimistic Following Downtrend Reversals; Japan Continues to Lead; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's

The bear market rally that we were on watch for started last week, confirmed by the bullish reversals on the DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China $MCHI, and...

Vermilion Research

Standard Chartered - Nickel and Dimes

The surge in nickel prices and the wrong-way trade(s) will mean bank counter-party risk, with STAN being highlighted in reports. ROA risk can be...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS Group Holdings – Weak Print, But Credit Improves

DBS: DBS 4Q21 declined 18.1% QOQ and driven by negative operating jaws; While loss provisions weren’t reversed this quarter, reserves should be...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Negara Indonesia – What on Earth Is Management Thinking?

BANK NEGARA INDONESIA: BNI posted a poor set of 4Q21 results, and heavily dependent on a negative 10.0% tax rate. BNI recently announced deal comes...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Empowering Mitra and Creating Shopfronts

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) looks to be misunderstood by retail investors, presenting an opportunity after the post-IPO correction, with a number of new...

Angus Mackintosh

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