Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>UK wealth manager Quilter PLC (QLT LN) is reportedly set to receive takeover bids from at least four different suitors, according to the Daily Mail. One of them is Natwest.</li>
<li>Interest in Quilter is not anything new: market share, investments in technology and a new platform make it appealing, in spite of headwinds for the industry.</li>
<li>My 136p TP is based on an average of comps-based P/E multiples. Considering valuation and potential interest, I would be long the shares.</li>
</ul>


UK wealth manager Quilter PLC (QLT LN) is reportedly set to receive takeover bids from at least four different suitors, according to the Daily Mail. One of them is Natwest.
Interest in Quilter is not anything new: market share, investments in technology and a new platform make it appealing, in spite of headwinds for the industry.
My 136p TP is based on an average of comps-based P/E multiples. Considering valuation and potential interest, I would be long the shares.


<p>Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names. </p>

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names. 

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

<p>The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.</p><p>The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.</p>

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

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Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  </strong></p>
<h2><strong>Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?</strong></h2>
<p>Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients</p>
<h2><strong>Why is it in the Short portfolio ?</strong></h2>
<p>Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/444/original/port%202.PNG?1551297124" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80444"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">S&amp;P Capital IQ</div>

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket.  A tough market background and Brexit concerns have reduced in-flows into Wealth and Investment Management companies. This growth hiatus could last for some time.  
Hargreaves Lansdown: What does it do ?
Hargreaves Lansdown is a wealth manager and private client stockbroker with a market value of  GBP8bn. It provides the UK's largest direct to investor platform administering £86bn of investments for more than 1.1m active clients
Why is it in the Short portfolio ?
Interim figures for the 6 months to December 2018, (published 29th Jan)  mark a deterioration in operating performance brought about by adverse market conditions. Assets under administration declined and net new business was 25% down on the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4%. The share price declined 6% on the day of the results but has subsequently been stable leaving the group on a forward multiple of over 30x. Unless the retail investment market recovers quickly this premium rating may prove vulnerable. 

S&amp;P Capital IQ

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

United Kingdom

St. James's Place Plc is a financial services holding company with interests in life insurance and unit trust management.  The Group's products also include pensions, offshore products, mortgage advisory services, and banking services through St. James's Place Bank. St. James's Place and its subsidiaries serve the United Kingdom.

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St James'S Place (STJ LN)

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Potential Interest in Quilter

Deal activity in the sector from both trade and financial buyers continues, despite macro-related weaker markets YTD. Quilter seems attractive due...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward. ...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/:LN) No Flow, No Go

The political decision to exit the European Union has unpredictable negative consequences for both the UK economy and stockmarket. A tough market...

Boost Research

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52-week Range

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