Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating. The latest stock price is approximately 7% below the new fair value (FV) of Bt40.25.</li><li>In addition, from a tactical perspective, the downside risk is very limited, as the difference between the stock price and the FV over the past six months is below -1.5 S.D.</li><li>The new FV of Bt40.25 is reduced from the previous Bt40.50, a decrease of about 1%. </li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating. The latest stock price is approximately 7% below the new fair value (FV) of Bt40.25.In addition, from a tactical perspective, the downside risk is very limited, as the difference between the stock price and the FV over the past six months is below -1.5 S.D.The new FV of Bt40.25 is reduced from the previous Bt40.50, a decrease of about 1%. 

Srisawad Corporation - Loan Growth to Slow Down

<ul><li>The slowdown in loan portfolio growth poses risk to the target and creates potential downside for the 2024-26E profit forecasts.</li><li>We will revisit our profit estimates, fair value, and rating after meeting with management on November 15, 2024.</li><li>SAWAD reported a 3Q24 net profit of Bt1,301mn (-6.2% YoY, +2.9% QoQ), slightly below market expectations by 2%.</li></ul>

The slowdown in loan portfolio growth poses risk to the target and creates potential downside for the 2024-26E profit forecasts.We will revisit our profit estimates, fair value, and rating after meeting with management on November 15, 2024.SAWAD reported a 3Q24 net profit of Bt1,301mn (-6.2% YoY, +2.9% QoQ), slightly below market expectations by 2%.

SRISAWAD CORPORATION - Lower Provisions QoQ; Loan Growth Likely to Fall Below Target

<ul><li>We switch to an Outperform rating with a fair value (FV) of Bt40.50 (from Buy and an FV of Bt47.51).</li><li>The share price has risen by 37% since our latest report on August 15, 2024, leaving limited upside potential compared to the new fair value.</li><li>Additionally, our tactical view has tightened, shifting from "Very limited downside" to "Neutral."</li></ul>

We switch to an Outperform rating with a fair value (FV) of Bt40.50 (from Buy and an FV of Bt47.51).The share price has risen by 37% since our latest report on August 15, 2024, leaving limited upside potential compared to the new fair value.Additionally, our tactical view has tightened, shifting from "Very limited downside" to "Neutral."

Srisawad Corporation - Slower Loan Growth

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy rating with a 12M FV of Bt47.51, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 9.6%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies upside of 70% to our fair value; meanwhile, the long-term earnings prospects are strong, and the tactical downside risk is very limited.</li><li>SAWAD reported a 2Q24 net profit of Bt1,264mn, up 10.3% YoY and 0.3% QoQ, in line with our expectation.</li></ul>

We maintain a Buy rating with a 12M FV of Bt47.51, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 9.6%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies upside of 70% to our fair value; meanwhile, the long-term earnings prospects are strong, and the tactical downside risk is very limited.SAWAD reported a 2Q24 net profit of Bt1,264mn, up 10.3% YoY and 0.3% QoQ, in line with our expectation.

Srisawad Corporation - In-Line 2Q24 NP; Accelerating Credit Costs

<ul><li>Our valuation metrics suggest switching to a Buy rating (from Neutral) as the current share price implies significant upside of 58.4% compared to the new fair value of Bt47.51 (vs. Bt40.78 previously).</li><li>This is based on a required return of 9.6%, following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.</li><li>In addition, the share price has fallen by 22.2% since our last report on June 5, 2024. </li></ul>

Our valuation metrics suggest switching to a Buy rating (from Neutral) as the current share price implies significant upside of 58.4% compared to the new fair value of Bt47.51 (vs. Bt40.78 previously).This is based on a required return of 9.6%, following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.In addition, the share price has fallen by 22.2% since our last report on June 5, 2024. 

SRISAWAD CORPORATION - 2Q24E Earnings to Grow YoY and QoQ

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)

Srisawad Corporation - Loan Growth to Slow Down

In addition, from a tactical perspective, the downside risk is very limited, as the difference between the stock price and the FV over the past six...

Krungthai XSpring

SRISAWAD CORPORATION - Lower Provisions QoQ; Loan Growth Likely to Fall Below Target

The slowdown in loan portfolio growth poses risk to the target and creates potential downside for the 2024-26E profit forecasts. We will revisit...

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation - Slower Loan Growth

We switch to an Outperform rating with a fair value (FV) of Bt40.50 (from Buy and an FV of Bt47.51). The share price has risen by 37% since our...

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation - In-Line 2Q24 NP; Accelerating Credit Costs

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies upside of 70% to our fair value; meanwhile, the long-term earnings prospects are strong,...

Krungthai XSpring

SRISAWAD CORPORATION - 2Q24E Earnings to Grow YoY and QoQ

Our valuation metrics suggest switching to a Buy rating (from Neutral) as the current share price implies significant upside of 58.4% compared to...

Krungthai XSpring

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