Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt42.25 (previously Bt42.75) after revising the profit estimates, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 8.8%.</li><li>SAWAD remains fundamentally attractive, with its share price implying 22% upside potential to the fair value of Bt42.20..</li><li>The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt42.25 (previously Bt42.75) after revising the profit estimates, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 8.8%.SAWAD remains fundamentally attractive, with its share price implying 22% upside potential to the fair value of Bt42.20..The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning. 

Srisawad Corporation - To Resume Loan Growth in 2025E

<ul><li>We maintain an Neutral rating and the 12M fair value at Bt42.75, based on the earnings yield with a required return of 8.8%.</li><li>4Q24 profit retreated (-3.3% YoY, -5.9% QoQ) due to a shrinking loan portfolio and narrowing interest margin, while asset quality continued to improve.</li><li>As the loan portfolio contracted more than expected, there is downside risk to our 2025-26E profit forecasts.</li></ul>

We maintain an Neutral rating and the 12M fair value at Bt42.75, based on the earnings yield with a required return of 8.8%.4Q24 profit retreated (-3.3% YoY, -5.9% QoQ) due to a shrinking loan portfolio and narrowing interest margin, while asset quality continued to improve.As the loan portfolio contracted more than expected, there is downside risk to our 2025-26E profit forecasts.

Srisawad Corporation - Reserves and Repossession Losses Decreased, but Loans Contracted

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of May 9th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Airports Of Thailand, Advanced Info Service, Gulf Energy Development, Central Retail, Srisawad, Tmbthanachart Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of May 9th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Airports Of Thailand, Advanced Info Service, Gulf Energy Development, Central Retail, Srisawad, Tmbthanachart Bank.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): Airports Of Thailand, Advanced Info Service

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating. The latest stock price is approximately 7% below the new fair value (FV) of Bt40.25.</li><li>In addition, from a tactical perspective, the downside risk is very limited, as the difference between the stock price and the FV over the past six months is below -1.5 S.D.</li><li>The new FV of Bt40.25 is reduced from the previous Bt40.50, a decrease of about 1%. </li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating. The latest stock price is approximately 7% below the new fair value (FV) of Bt40.25.In addition, from a tactical perspective, the downside risk is very limited, as the difference between the stock price and the FV over the past six months is below -1.5 S.D.The new FV of Bt40.25 is reduced from the previous Bt40.50, a decrease of about 1%. 

Srisawad Corporation - Loan Growth to Slow Down

<ul><li>The slowdown in loan portfolio growth poses risk to the target and creates potential downside for the 2024-26E profit forecasts.</li><li>We will revisit our profit estimates, fair value, and rating after meeting with management on November 15, 2024.</li><li>SAWAD reported a 3Q24 net profit of Bt1,301mn (-6.2% YoY, +2.9% QoQ), slightly below market expectations by 2%.</li></ul>

The slowdown in loan portfolio growth poses risk to the target and creates potential downside for the 2024-26E profit forecasts.We will revisit our profit estimates, fair value, and rating after meeting with management on November 15, 2024.SAWAD reported a 3Q24 net profit of Bt1,301mn (-6.2% YoY, +2.9% QoQ), slightly below market expectations by 2%.

SRISAWAD CORPORATION - Lower Provisions QoQ; Loan Growth Likely to Fall Below Target

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)

Srisawad Corporation - To Resume Loan Growth in 2025E

The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning....

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation - Reserves and Repossession Losses Decreased, but Loans Contracted

We maintain an Neutral rating and the 12M fair value at Bt42.75, based on the earnings yield with a required return of 8.8%. 4Q24 profit retreated...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): Airports Of Thailand, Advanced Info Service

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Airports Of Thailand (AOT TB), Advanced Info...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Srisawad Corporation - Loan Growth to Slow Down

In addition, from a tactical perspective, the downside risk is very limited, as the difference between the stock price and the FV over the past six...

Krungthai XSpring

SRISAWAD CORPORATION - Lower Provisions QoQ; Loan Growth Likely to Fall Below Target

The slowdown in loan portfolio growth poses risk to the target and creates potential downside for the 2024-26E profit forecasts. We will revisit...

Krungthai XSpring

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