IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> has despatched the offer document relating to its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a> MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.413 per share. The offer closes on 24 March.</li>
<li>The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate (47% excluding the Gondobintoro Family).</li>
<li>We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. At the last close and for an early-April payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.7% and 7.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) has despatched the offer document relating to its Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.413 per share. The offer closes on 24 March.
The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate (47% excluding the Gondobintoro Family).
We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. At the last close and for an early-April payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.7% and 7.3%, respectively.


Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Offer Document Out, Offer Closes 24 March

<ul>
<li>The conditions precedent for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> to acquire 36.00% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>’s outstanding shares from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinochem-international-corporation-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13110:1" rel="noopener">Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH)</a> at US$0.315 is fulfilled. </li>
<li>This will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.413. On the assumption that the offer document is despatched by 17 February, the earliest close of the offer is 17 March.</li>
<li>The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. </li>
</ul>


The conditions precedent for China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) to acquire 36.00% of Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)’s outstanding shares from Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH) at US$0.315 is fulfilled. 
This will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.413. On the assumption that the offer document is despatched by 17 February, the earliest close of the offer is 17 March.
The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. 


Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Conditions Precedent Fulfilled, MGO at S$0.413

<ul>
<li>The SPA for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> to acquire 36.00% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>’s outstanding shares from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinochem-international-corporation-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13110:1" rel="noopener">Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH)</a> at US$0.315 is effective. </li>
<li>Conditions precedent which relate to Chinese regulatory approvals should be satisfied shortly. Completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.423 (US$/S$ rate fixed on the closing date). </li>
<li>The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. </li>
</ul>


The SPA for China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) to acquire 36.00% of Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)’s outstanding shares from Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH) at US$0.315 is effective. 
Conditions precedent which relate to Chinese regulatory approvals should be satisfied shortly. Completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 or S$0.423 (US$/S$ rate fixed on the closing date). 
The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive. 


Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) MGO: SPA Effective, Next Is Satisfaction of Conditions Precedent

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> has entered a conditional SPA with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinochem-international-corporation-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13110:1" rel="noopener">Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH)</a> to acquire a 36.00% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a> at US$0.315/share.</li>
<li>The SPA completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 (S$0.436) per share. The pre-conditions mainly relate to Chinese regulatory approvals which should be a formality due to SOE links.</li>
<li>The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around a 40% minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive.</li>
</ul>



China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) has entered a conditional SPA with Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH) to acquire a 36.00% stake in Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) at US$0.315/share.
The SPA completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 (S$0.436) per share. The pre-conditions mainly relate to Chinese regulatory approvals which should be a formality due to SOE links.
The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around a 40% minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The market cap and liquidity review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> ended yesterday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asset-world-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28136:1" rel="noopener">Asset World Corporation (AWC TB)</a> could be deleted depending on which levers the index committee tweaks, and that could save <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a> from index deletion.</li>
</ul>


The market cap and liquidity review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) ended yesterday.

JMT Network Services (JMT TB), Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and Berli Jucker (BJC TB) could replace Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB), Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB) and IRPC PCL (IRPC).

Asset World Corporation (AWC TB) could be deleted depending on which levers the index committee tweaks, and that could save IRPC PCL (IRPC TB) from index deletion.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low

Thailand

Sri Trang Agro-Industry Public Company Limited produces and markets smoked sheet rubber.  The Company sells its products to tire manufacturers as primary market, and exports to Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan as secondary market.

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Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB)

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Offer Document Out, Offer Closes 24 March

The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around 40% of minorities' acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the...

Arun George

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP): Conditions Precedent Fulfilled, MGO at S$0.413

The 50%+ minimum acceptance condition can be hit as the offer is attractive. At the last close and for a mid-March payment, the annualised spread...

Arun George

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) MGO: SPA Effective, Next Is Satisfaction of Conditions Precedent

Conditions precedent should be satisfied soon due to the SOE heritage of the buyer/seller and SASAC approval of the deal. At last close prices, the...

Arun George

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)’s Potential MGO

The SPA completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 (S$0.436). The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition, which is achievable as it is...

Arun George

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two High Probability Changes; One Low

We see 2 high probability changes and 1 low probability change at the June review of the SET50 Index. JMT, JMART & BJC could replace STGT, RATCH &...

Brian Freitas

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