TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.</li>
<li>Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. </li>
<li>While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.</li>
</ul>


Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.
Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. 
While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.


US Tech Company Research, MT Capital

MT Capital

US Tech Company Research

I demystify the world's most interesting tech companies, providing in-depth, no-nonsense, un-biased analysis on the most interesting Tech Companies available for investment today. I am a Mechanical Engineer by education, Software Engineer by trade and a self-trained Financial Analyst.

<ul>
<li>With Spotify’s newfound all-things-audio ambition, we can take note of some noticeable happenings within the broad media category as a whole</li>
<li>Starting off high-level, the company offers users access to its platform in two distinct manners, with a free membership or through a premium counterpart</li>
<li>In short, Spotify is on a quest to capture the opportunity provided by an industry that is rapidly expanding in all directions</li>
</ul>


With Spotify’s newfound all-things-audio ambition, we can take note of some noticeable happenings within the broad media category as a whole
Starting off high-level, the company offers users access to its platform in two distinct manners, with a free membership or through a premium counterpart
In short, Spotify is on a quest to capture the opportunity provided by an industry that is rapidly expanding in all directions


<ul>
<li>Tesla is a short. We know. You can't short it. But it is a short.</li>
<li>We continue to look for businesses that overearned and pulled in growth during the pandemic...some more recently identified examples: CHWY, ROKU</li>
<li>Spotify remains one of our top short ideas, bad business model, and now increasing competition from alternative listening services. </li>
</ul>


Tesla is a short. We know. You can't short it. But it is a short.
We continue to look for businesses that overearned and pulled in growth during the pandemic...some more recently identified examples: CHWY, ROKU
Spotify remains one of our top short ideas, bad business model, and now increasing competition from alternative listening services. 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This morning, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> declared an interim dividend by way of in-specie distribution of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> shares. </li>
<li>The distribution is 457,326,671 Tencent-held (86.4% of holdings) Class A Ordinary shares of JD.com - 1 share per 21 Tencent shares held - to Qualifying Shareholders on the record...</li>
<li>...date which is 25 January 2022, with 'delivery' on or about 25 March 2022. Non-Qualifying Shareholders will get cash. The details matter.</li>
</ul>


This morning, Tencent (700 HK) declared an interim dividend by way of in-specie distribution of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) / JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) shares. 
The distribution is 457,326,671 Tencent-held (86.4% of holdings) Class A Ordinary shares of JD.com - 1 share per 21 Tencent shares held - to Qualifying Shareholders on the record...
...date which is 25 January 2022, with 'delivery' on or about 25 March 2022. Non-Qualifying Shareholders will get cash. The details matter.


Tencent's Big In-Specie Dividend of JD.com Shares

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-not-yet-a-sound-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61441" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment</a>, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cloud-village-netease-music-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61537" rel="noopener">Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive.  </li>
<li>It priced its IPO at HK$205 and closed <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/3121049/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E7%B6%B2%E6%98%93%E9%9B%B2%E9%9F%B3%E6%A8%829899%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E6%94%B6%E8%B7%8C2-%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E7%B4%84%E8%9D%95200%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">-2% lower</a> in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$186.88 per share is a 9% downside to the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Not yet a Sound Investment, we stated that the 9M21 update is underwhelming with slowing growth and a marginal decline in losses. 
In Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive.  
It priced its IPO at HK$205 and closed -2% lower in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$186.88 per share is a 9% downside to the IPO price.  


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Trading Debut

Luxembourg

Spotify Technology S.A. provides music streaming services. The Company offers commercial free music and ad-supported services to subscribers. Spotify Technology serves clients worldwide.

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Spotify (SPOT US)

Spotify 1Q22 Earnings: Netflix Like?

The more Daniel Ek said that Spotify is not like Netflix, the more we thought...hes right! Netflix has a less competition, more pricing power, and...

Aaron Gabin

Spotify ($SPOT): In-Depth Analysis

With Spotify’s newfound all-things-audio ambition, we can take note of some noticeable happenings within the broad media category as a whole

MT Capital

1H22 Obex Research Short Portfolio

Our top short ideas for 2022: Tesla, Roku, Palantir, Spotify, Doordash, Expensify, AMC, and Teradata. Continue to like pandemic related...

Aaron Gabin

Tencent's Big In-Specie Dividend of JD.com Shares

Tencent has decided to distribute the vast majority of the JD.com shares it holds. JD.com got sold off and Tencent got a bump. The Tencent bump is...

Travis Lundy

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO: Trading Debut

Cloud Village will commence trading on Thursday, 2 December. Our base-case DCF value of HK$186.88 per share is a 9% downside to the IPO price of...

Arun George

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