Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Southwest continues to suffer revenue generation challenges and issued another profit warning today, yet pricing pressure simply exposes a lack of control over its costs</li>
<li>Our detailed analysis of Southwest's financial performance illustrates it has seen labor inflation decimate its conversion of gross profit to EBITDAR, now ranking among the bottom tier of the sector</li>
<li>Our deep dive on peer financial performances illustrates that only American, Delta and United have managed to broadly protect gross profit/EBITDAR conversion while all others have seen labor costs bite</li>
</ul>


Southwest continues to suffer revenue generation challenges and issued another profit warning today, yet pricing pressure simply exposes a lack of control over its costs
Our detailed analysis of Southwest's financial performance illustrates it has seen labor inflation decimate its conversion of gross profit to EBITDAR, now ranking among the bottom tier of the sector
Our deep dive on peer financial performances illustrates that only American, Delta and United have managed to broadly protect gross profit/EBITDAR conversion while all others have seen labor costs bite


Southwest Airlines: Dissecting the Drivers of Profitability Drag

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tbo-tek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36284:1" rel="noopener">TBO Tek (0395045D IN)</a> is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its refiling updates and undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



TBO Tek (0395045D IN) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.
In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its refiling updates and undertake a peer comparison.


TBO Tek Pre-IPO - Refiling Updates & Peer Comparison

<ul>
<li>1Q24 upgrade from JetBlue increases our confidence that consensus is too low for 2024.</li>
<li>Investor Day on 30 May will provide the next leg of revenue self-help initiatives.</li>
<li>We model a minor net profit of $22m in 2025, versus consensus expectations for further losses, and the next 3 months are crucial for the carrier's long-term prospects.</li>
</ul>


1Q24 upgrade from JetBlue increases our confidence that consensus is too low for 2024.
Investor Day on 30 May will provide the next leg of revenue self-help initiatives.
We model a minor net profit of $22m in 2025, versus consensus expectations for further losses, and the next 3 months are crucial for the carrier's long-term prospects.


JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations

Frontier Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.</li>
<li>Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.</li>
<li>We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to &gt;$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC's ability to thrive with higher costs.</li>
</ul>


Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.
Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.
We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to &gt;$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC's ability to thrive with higher costs.


Frontier Airlines - 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

<ul>
<li>Coverage launch on Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines following the rejection of the JetBlue/Spirit deal by the US.</li>
<li>High leverage and above-sector cost inflation put each carrier in a difficult competitive position, driving the need for significant structural earnings improvements to achieve financial sustainability</li>
<li>We are 10% above consensus 2024 EBITDAR for Frontier, narrowly above for JetBlue but 17% below consensus for Spirit.</li>
</ul>


Coverage launch on Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines following the rejection of the JetBlue/Spirit deal by the US.
High leverage and above-sector cost inflation put each carrier in a difficult competitive position, driving the need for significant structural earnings improvements to achieve financial sustainability
We are 10% above consensus 2024 EBITDAR for Frontier, narrowly above for JetBlue but 17% below consensus for Spirit.


US Airlines - Second Tier Strives for Financial Sustainability

United States

Spirit Airlines Inc. is a low-fare airline based in Miramar, Florida. The Airline provides low-cost travel opportunities principally to and from South Florida, the Caribbean and Latin America. Spirit Airlines basic service combines with a range of optional services for additional fees, targets price sensitive leisure travelers and travelers visiting friends and relatives.

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Spirit Airlines (SAVE US)

Southwest Airlines: Dissecting the Drivers of Profitability Drag

Deep dive disaggregating the key drivers of Southwest Airlines's underperformance of its fellow US majors, ranking it alongside the bottom tier of...

Neil Glynn

TBO Tek Pre-IPO - Refiling Updates & Peer Comparison

TBO Tek (0395045D IN) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about its refiling updates and...

Ethan Aw

JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations

1Q24 momentum at JetBlue sets the scene for a bullish update at Investor Day on 30 May. But we highlight much work to be done to restore JetBlue to...

Neil Glynn

Frontier Airlines - 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

The US ULCC sector has struggled through 2023, but we highlight that Frontier Airlines can demonstrate it is possible to recover margins and...

Neil Glynn

US Airlines - Second Tier Strives for Financial Sustainability

Deep dive on the quest for financial sustainability of Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, each with a deteriorated competitive...

Neil Glynn

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