Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

Frontier Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.</li>
<li>Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.</li>
<li>We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to &gt;$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC's ability to thrive with higher costs.</li>
</ul>


Frontier Airlines, having suffered a highly challenged 2023, is set to see a significant inflection point for pricing and margins in 2Q24.
Management aims to deliver 3-6% PBT margins in 2024 building to 10-14% in 2025, representing a reversion to pre-pandemic levels. Read across for LCCs globally.
We now expect a small positive FCF in 2024, building to &gt;$200m in 2025, which should help inspire confidence in the ULCC's ability to thrive with higher costs.


Frontier Airlines - 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

<ul>
<li>Coverage launch on Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines following the rejection of the JetBlue/Spirit deal by the US.</li>
<li>High leverage and above-sector cost inflation put each carrier in a difficult competitive position, driving the need for significant structural earnings improvements to achieve financial sustainability</li>
<li>We are 10% above consensus 2024 EBITDAR for Frontier, narrowly above for JetBlue but 17% below consensus for Spirit.</li>
</ul>


Coverage launch on Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines following the rejection of the JetBlue/Spirit deal by the US.
High leverage and above-sector cost inflation put each carrier in a difficult competitive position, driving the need for significant structural earnings improvements to achieve financial sustainability
We are 10% above consensus 2024 EBITDAR for Frontier, narrowly above for JetBlue but 17% below consensus for Spirit.


US Airlines - Second Tier Strives for Financial Sustainability

<ul>
<li>WSJ reports Spirit is exploring a Chapter 11 filing, with this risk apparent since the collapse of the planned JetBlue combination in January.</li>
<li>We highlight detailed analysis comparing the economics of airline recoveries across the US, illustrating Spirit lags on commercial performance and cost control.</li>
<li>With labor costs up from 21% of revenue in 2Q19 to 33% in 2Q24, compared to a pre-tax match of 12% in 2019, Spirit needs to address this labor-pricing mismatch.</li>
</ul>


WSJ reports Spirit is exploring a Chapter 11 filing, with this risk apparent since the collapse of the planned JetBlue combination in January.
We highlight detailed analysis comparing the economics of airline recoveries across the US, illustrating Spirit lags on commercial performance and cost control.
With labor costs up from 21% of revenue in 2Q19 to 33% in 2Q24, compared to a pre-tax match of 12% in 2019, Spirit needs to address this labor-pricing mismatch.


Spirit Airlines Needs to Address Labor Cost-Pricing Mismatch with or Without Chapter 11

<ul>
<li>1Q24 upgrade from JetBlue increases our confidence that consensus is too low for 2024.</li>
<li>Investor Day on 30 May will provide the next leg of revenue self-help initiatives.</li>
<li>We model a minor net profit of $22m in 2025, versus consensus expectations for further losses, and the next 3 months are crucial for the carrier's long-term prospects.</li>
</ul>


1Q24 upgrade from JetBlue increases our confidence that consensus is too low for 2024.
Investor Day on 30 May will provide the next leg of revenue self-help initiatives.
We model a minor net profit of $22m in 2025, versus consensus expectations for further losses, and the next 3 months are crucial for the carrier's long-term prospects.


JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Frontier Airlines (ULCC US)'s improved terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spirit-airlines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3389:1" rel="noopener">Spirit Airlines (SAVE US)</a>  still falls well short of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jetblue-airways-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1516:1" rel="noopener">Jetblue Airways (JBLU US)</a> offer</li>
<li>ULCC's enhanced downside protection matching JBLU's reverse termination fee and bettering its prepayment proposal is the key swing factor where the regulatory path to approval is challenging for either transaction</li>
<li>Given its vigorous pursuit of SAVE so far, we expect JBLU will quickly respond with another counter offer in order to regain the initiative which should keep arbs interested </li>
</ul>


Frontier Airlines (ULCC US)'s improved terms for Spirit Airlines (SAVE US)  still falls well short of the Jetblue Airways (JBLU US) offer
ULCC's enhanced downside protection matching JBLU's reverse termination fee and bettering its prepayment proposal is the key swing factor where the regulatory path to approval is challenging for either transaction
Given its vigorous pursuit of SAVE so far, we expect JBLU will quickly respond with another counter offer in order to regain the initiative which should keep arbs interested 


United States

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides passenger air transportation services. Frontier Group Holdings serves customers in North America.

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Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC US)

Frontier Airlines - 2024 Momentum Buys Time to Deliver on 2025 Targets

The US ULCC sector has struggled through 2023, but we highlight that Frontier Airlines can demonstrate it is possible to recover margins and...

Neil Glynn

US Airlines - Second Tier Strives for Financial Sustainability

Deep dive on the quest for financial sustainability of Frontier Airlines, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, each with a deteriorated competitive...

Neil Glynn

Spirit Airlines Needs to Address Labor Cost-Pricing Mismatch with or Without Chapter 11

Deep dive on the drivers of Spirit Airlines's financial challenges relative to peers as the WSJ reports it is exploring a Chapter 11 filing.

Neil Glynn

JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations

1Q24 momentum at JetBlue sets the scene for a bullish update at Investor Day on 30 May. But we highlight much work to be done to restore JetBlue to...

Neil Glynn

MergerTalk: Over To You, JetBlue!

Given its vigorous pursuit of Spirit Airlines so far, we expect Jetblue will quickly respond to Frontier's improved terms in an effort to regain...

Robert Sassoon

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