Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.</li><li>There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).</li><li>It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.</li></ul>

US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Research from Value Investing, Value Investing

Value Investing

Research from Value Investing

I am a value investor. "Value", as defined in Value Investing, is simply the act of buying something for less than its worth. I treat my equity investment as a loan to the business - where the priority is to get back my principal in full, rather than achieving maximum yield. I consider my equity investment as a slightly higher risk loan extended to the business with slightly more accommodative loan covenants - hence justifying a slightly higher yield. While I identify as a value investor and cover all stocks and macro topics indiscriminately, most of my research will have an ASEAN bent as that’s where I’m geographically located.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)</li><li>Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.</li><li>This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.</li></ul>

The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The latter half of 2023 was all about the soft (perfect) landing narrative, which made markets party like there was no tomorrow.</li><li>It almost looked like people forgot about risks, but positioning data has turned a bit at the end of December / start of January, which hints at a risk aversion comeback.</li><li>Could 2024 be the year when asset prices are no longer determined based on interest rates alone?</li></ul>

The latter half of 2023 was all about the soft (perfect) landing narrative, which made markets party like there was no tomorrow.It almost looked like people forgot about risks, but positioning data has turned a bit at the end of December / start of January, which hints at a risk aversion comeback.Could 2024 be the year when asset prices are no longer determined based on interest rates alone?

Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?

<ul><li>The year has generally speaking been a forecasting challenge for most to say the least, and not a lot of people forecasted the ending that we’re left with, but how does the current price action and massive inflows into both equities and bonds leave us for 2024?</li><li>Sentiment has been EXTREMELY bullish in Q3 and Q4 based on our z-score sentiment model but almost solely built on equity momentum, which is rarely a good sign.</li><li>Both option ratios, credit-spreads and market breadth have turned bearish in Q4, which should leave markets vulnerable after the boost from positive liquidity trends dwindles during Q1 2024.</li></ul>

The year has generally speaking been a forecasting challenge for most to say the least, and not a lot of people forecasted the ending that we’re left with, but how does the current price action and massive inflows into both equities and bonds leave us for 2024?Sentiment has been EXTREMELY bullish in Q3 and Q4 based on our z-score sentiment model but almost solely built on equity momentum, which is rarely a good sign.Both option ratios, credit-spreads and market breadth have turned bearish in Q4, which should leave markets vulnerable after the boost from positive liquidity trends dwindles during Q1 2024.

Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned ahead of a turbulent 2024?

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022. This article is a repeat of...

Value Investing

Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?

The latter half of 2023 was all about the soft (perfect) landing narrative, which made markets party like there was no tomorrow. It almost looked...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned ahead of a turbulent 2024?

Hello everyone. We hope you have enjoyed the holiday season and are slowly but surely getting ready for New Years and the new year ahead of you in...

Steno Research

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