Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

The election of Donald Trump saw previously muted animal spirits soar as businesses anticipated a de-regulation, health-care reform and fiscal spending that would decisively accelerate domestic demand, transitioning the economy's long-entrenched recovery from steady simmer towards a full boil. But while the Trump Presidency after just eight months is dissolving into an unprecedented morass of ineptitude and scandal with fading prospects for a decisive fiscal boost, corporate animal spirits…

The election of Donald Trump saw previously muted animal spirits soar as businesses anticipated a de-regulation, health-care reform and fiscal spending that would decisively accelerate domestic demand, transitioning the economy's long-entrenched recovery from steady simmer towards a full boil. But while the Trump Presidency after just eight months is dissolving into an unprecedented morass of ineptitude and scandal with fading prospects for a decisive fiscal boost, corporate animal spirits…

US: Think The Trump Bump Is Over? Think Again.....

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2>Global asset markets have shrugged off rising geopolitical tensions, stretched valuations and worries that the world’s leading central banks were embarking on a coordinated withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation. What has helped is a macroeconomic backdrop widely-perceived as benign – a Goldilocks scenario where economic growth is neither “too hot nor too cold” and inflation pressures are moderate. Of the two, we judge the inflation element to be the most critical. Given this, we…

SummaryGlobal asset markets have shrugged off rising geopolitical tensions, stretched valuations and worries that the world’s leading central banks were embarking on a coordinated withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation. What has helped is a macroeconomic backdrop widely-perceived as benign – a Goldilocks scenario where economic growth is neither “too hot nor too cold” and inflation pressures are moderate. Of the two, we judge the inflation element to be the most critical. Given this, we…

The Market Sentimentalist - The Worry List

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Tweet and NYT-interview attacks on Sessions suggest that Trump is close to triggering a constitutional crisis by sacking Sessions (and possibly also his deputy, and god forbid, Special Counsel Mueller). The domestic agenda, already in massive trouble, would die completely if he were to do this. Meanwhile, the withdrawal of CIA funding to the FSA and other US allies in Syria has played right into the hands of Russia. Congressional attempts to tighten sanctions reveal the bizarre Jekyll &amp; Hyde…

Tweet and NYT-interview attacks on Sessions suggest that Trump is close to triggering a constitutional crisis by sacking Sessions (and possibly also his deputy, and god forbid, Special Counsel Mueller). The domestic agenda, already in massive trouble, would die completely if he were to do this. Meanwhile, the withdrawal of CIA funding to the FSA and other US allies in Syria has played right into the hands of Russia. Congressional attempts to tighten sanctions reveal the bizarre Jekyll &amp; Hyde…

Trump Makes Russia Great Again as His Domestic Agenda Continues to Implode

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

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<li>
The US Conference Board Leading Indicator (LEI) rose 0.6% m/m in Jun 17, rising sharply from the 0.2% increase in April and May. The increase in the LEI was broad-based, attesting to its resilience.</li>
<li>
Median usual weekly earnings for full-time wage and salary workers rose 4.2% y/y in 2Q17, unchanged from 1Q17 and accelerating from 2.9% in 2Q16.</li>
<li>
Chicago Federal Reserve’s national financial conditions index fell to -0.9, down from -0.878 the previous week, reflecting the easiest financial conditions…</li>
</ul>



The US Conference Board Leading Indicator (LEI) rose 0.6% m/m in Jun 17, rising sharply from the 0.2% increase in April and May. The increase in the LEI was broad-based, attesting to its resilience.

Median usual weekly earnings for full-time wage and salary workers rose 4.2% y/y in 2Q17, unchanged from 1Q17 and accelerating from 2.9% in 2Q16.

Chicago Federal Reserve’s national financial conditions index fell to -0.9, down from -0.878 the previous week, reflecting the easiest financial conditions…


What Really Matters in the US Economy Is Doing Well

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Consensus about further tightening of monetary policy by the US Fed has been drastically revised down of late, with most analysts expecting no further interest rate rises this year. This follows concerns from Janet Yellen in her July 12 testimony on the uncertainty of when – and how much – inflation will respond to tightening resource utilization in the US economy. While the expectation for further rate hikes and the beginning of the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet were maintained in…

Consensus about further tightening of monetary policy by the US Fed has been drastically revised down of late, with most analysts expecting no further interest rate rises this year. This follows concerns from Janet Yellen in her July 12 testimony on the uncertainty of when – and how much – inflation will respond to tightening resource utilization in the US economy. While the expectation for further rate hikes and the beginning of the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet were maintained in…

US Markets Update: Inflation Matches Expectation

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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US: Think The Trump Bump Is Over? Think Again.....

The election of Donald Trump saw previously muted animal spirits soar as businesses anticipated a de-regulation, health-care reform and fiscal...

Richard Iley

The Market Sentimentalist - The Worry List

SummaryGlobal asset markets have shrugged off rising geopolitical tensions, stretched valuations and worries that the world’s leading central banks...

Amareos

Trump Makes Russia Great Again as His Domestic Agenda Continues to Implode

Tweet and NYT-interview attacks on Sessions suggest that Trump is close to triggering a constitutional crisis by sacking Sessions (and possibly...

Prasenjit K. Basu

What Really Matters in the US Economy Is Doing Well

The US Conference Board Leading Indicator (LEI) rose 0.6% m/m in Jun 17, rising sharply from the 0.2% increase in April and May. The increase in...

Jason Tan

US Markets Update: Inflation Matches Expectation

Consensus about further tightening of monetary policy by the US Fed has been drastically revised down of late, with most analysts expecting no...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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