Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

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Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

The market may be setting up for a period of positive seasonality into year-end, which would be sparked by a reflationary boom. However, a number of important cyclical tripwires have not been triggered. At a minimum, and in the short term, the S&amp;P 500 needs to rally and regain the 50-day moving average, though it is helpfully exhibiting positive RSI divergences as it tests the Evergrande panic lows.

The market may be setting up for a period of positive seasonality into year-end, which would be sparked by a reflationary boom. However, a number of important cyclical tripwires have not been triggered. At a minimum, and in the short term, the S&amp;P 500 needs to rally and regain the 50-day moving average, though it is helpfully exhibiting positive RSI divergences as it tests the Evergrande panic lows.

A review of market leadership through macro cross-asset and conventional technical analysis viewpoints shows a possible bullish set-up for the reflation trade. However, the jury is still out on this bullish scenario. We need to see the cyclical and value sectors exhibit better and broader relative performance as confirmation of reflationary strength. Investors may gain better clarity on market direction once the jitters over the debt ceiling and Biden’s stimulus program are resolved.

A review of market leadership through macro cross-asset and conventional technical analysis viewpoints shows a possible bullish set-up for the reflation trade. However, the jury is still out on this bullish scenario. We need to see the cyclical and value sectors exhibit better and broader relative performance as confirmation of reflationary strength. Investors may gain better clarity on market direction once the jitters over the debt ceiling and Biden’s stimulus program are resolved.

Q4 Sector Review: Assessing the Yield Surge Fallout

The U.S. stock market made a classic washout bottom last week. While we wouldn’t necessarily discount the possibility of a pause in the advance, the intermediate-term path of least resistance for stock prices is up.

The U.S. stock market made a classic washout bottom last week. While we wouldn’t necessarily discount the possibility of a pause in the advance, the intermediate-term path of least resistance for stock prices is up.

S&amp;P 500 long-term breadth is deteriorating as the percentage of S&amp;P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average has retreated from a “good overbought” advance reading of 90%. Past episodes have resolved themselves either with a period of sideways consolidation or sharp pullback. Based on our analysis of the macro and technical backdrop, the sideways consolidation is the more likely scenario. Arguably, stock prices have been undergoing a period of sideways movement beneath the surface owing to the bifurcation between growth and value stocks.

S&amp;P 500 long-term breadth is deteriorating as the percentage of S&amp;P 500 stocks above their 200 day moving average has retreated from a “good overbought” advance reading of 90%. Past episodes have resolved themselves either with a period of sideways consolidation or sharp pullback. Based on our analysis of the macro and technical backdrop, the sideways consolidation is the more likely scenario. Arguably, stock prices have been undergoing a period of sideways movement beneath the surface owing to the bifurcation between growth and value stocks.

For several weeks, we have been calling for a choppy sideways market, but the S&amp;P 500 continues its upward grind. To be sure, the index pulled back about 2% last week and briefly tested its 50 dma, but its upward trajectory has been relentless.A discussion with another chartist raised the possibility that the market has been undergoing a stealth correction. As good technicians know, corrections can occur in price or in time. Beneath the surface, market internals have been correcting in both price and time.This is still a bull market. Investment-oriented accounts should remain bullishly positioned and be prepared to buy any weakness. Traders may wish to wait on the sidelines until a definitive trend becomes evident and be prepared to buy either the panic bottom or the upside breakout.

For several weeks, we have been calling for a choppy sideways market, but the S&amp;P 500 continues its upward grind. To be sure, the index pulled back about 2% last week and briefly tested its 50 dma, but its upward trajectory has been relentless.A discussion with another chartist raised the possibility that the market has been undergoing a stealth correction. As good technicians know, corrections can occur in price or in time. Beneath the surface, market internals have been correcting in both price and time.This is still a bull market. Investment-oriented accounts should remain bullishly positioned and be prepared to buy any weakness. Traders may wish to wait on the sidelines until a definitive trend becomes evident and be prepared to buy either the panic bottom or the upside breakout.

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

A Q4 Meltup Ahead?

The market may be setting up for a period of positive seasonality into year-end, which would be sparked by a reflationary boom.

Cam Hui

Q4 Sector Review: Assessing the Yield Surge Fallout

A review of market leadership through macro cross-asset and conventional technical analysis viewpoints shows a possible bullish set-up for the...

Cam Hui

A Classic Washout Bottom

The U.S. market made a classic washout bottom last week. The intermediate-term path of least resistance for stock prices is up.

Cam Hui

Time For A Mid-Cycle Swoon?

S&P 500 long-term breadth is deteriorating. Similar past episodes have resolved themselves either with a period of sideways consolidation or sharp...

Cam Hui

A Correction in Time?

As good technicians know, corrections can occur in price or in time. Beneath the surface, market internals have been correcting in both price and...

Cam Hui

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Market Cap (USDm)

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