House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.</li><li>On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.</li><li>What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.</li></ul>

After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.

Investors fearful of a possible recession

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Weaker markets are showing support cracks as strong horses reach for minor new highs into the late April/early May cycle inflection timeline while the USD is due to find support near the DXY low zone. This aligns for a peak in risk.

Weaker markets are showing support cracks as strong horses reach for minor new highs into the late April/early May cycle inflection timeline while the USD is due to find support near the DXY low zone. This aligns for a peak in risk.

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul>
<li>The beginning of the third national lockdown’s end on 8 March will see the return of conditions equally as tight as during the second one from November. UK GDP should recover by a few per cent in March but we still see it down by 4.5% q-o-q in Q1.</li>
<li>Further easing is extremely gradual with remaining restrictions only planned to end on 21 June if everything goes to plan. The UK is failing to capture a relative economic dividend from its relatively successful vaccination programme, despite bullish pricing.</li>
</ul>


The beginning of the third national lockdown’s end on 8 March will see the return of conditions equally as tight as during the second one from November. UK GDP should recover by a few per cent in March but we still see it down by 4.5% q-o-q in Q1.
Further easing is extremely gradual with remaining restrictions only planned to end on 21 June if everything goes to plan. The UK is failing to capture a relative economic dividend from its relatively successful vaccination programme, despite bullish pricing.


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Gross Operating Revenues Do NOT Cover Recurring Costs At HSBCNA: HSBC Holdings plc’s (HSBC) [5.HK/HSBA.LN] US subsidiary, HSBC North America (US only) [HSBCNA], reported yet another troubling set of results for 4Q20, losing USD 152.6 mn – down USD 312.6 mn (195.4%) on a linked quarter basis. Excluding non-recurring items, core operating income declined USD 313.6 mn (230.1%) for a loss of USD 177.3 mn over the same period. As it stands again, HSBCNA’s operating costs exceed recurring revenues; *HSBCNA Is Evolving Into An Indian State Bank: Given the credit weakness, we find that NPL/TL and problem assets/TL ratios significantly worsened 92 bp and 160 bp linked quarter, respectively, to 2.82% and 5.01%. By our calculation, we note that net new problem loan growth is a scary USD 867.9 mn  - for an annualized rate of growth of 155.4% - in line with the Indian state banks. By our calculation, HSBCNA’s reserves are light by USD 3.8 bn or 17.6% of HSBCNA’s stated equity. We would have compared the reserve shortfall to PBT, but HSBCNA simply loses money on an operating basis; and*HSBCNA Should Be Dumped At Any Price: HSBCNA is a chronic mess, and there is absolutely no need for HSBC to maintain a full commercial/retail banking presence in the US. It cannot earn a positive return under its current structure; credit is again about to fall off a cliff; does not earning; NIMs are among the lowest in the USA; and capital is shortly about to fall below regulatory guidance. Further, the bad acquisitions and regulatory headaches should spur management to cut and run in the US. We look forward to Group results on February 23rd, and the clarity we will receive on its hot mess in the US.

*Gross Operating Revenues Do NOT Cover Recurring Costs At HSBCNA: HSBC Holdings plc’s (HSBC) [5.HK/HSBA.LN] US subsidiary, HSBC North America (US only) [HSBCNA], reported yet another troubling set of results for 4Q20, losing USD 152.6 mn – down USD 312.6 mn (195.4%) on a linked quarter basis. Excluding non-recurring items, core operating income declined USD 313.6 mn (230.1%) for a loss of USD 177.3 mn over the same period. As it stands again, HSBCNA’s operating costs exceed recurring revenues; *HSBCNA Is Evolving Into An Indian State Bank: Given the credit weakness, we find that NPL/TL and problem assets/TL ratios significantly worsened 92 bp and 160 bp linked quarter, respectively, to 2.82% and 5.01%. By our calculation, we note that net new problem loan growth is a scary USD 867.9 mn  - for an annualized rate of growth of 155.4% - in line with the Indian state banks. By our calculation, HSBCNA’s reserves are light by USD 3.8 bn or 17.6% of HSBCNA’s stated equity. We would have compared the reserve shortfall to PBT, but HSBCNA simply loses money on an operating basis; and*HSBCNA Should Be Dumped At Any Price: HSBCNA is a chronic mess, and there is absolutely no need for HSBC to maintain a full commercial/retail banking presence in the US. It cannot earn a positive return under its current structure; credit is again about to fall off a cliff; does not earning; NIMs are among the lowest in the USA; and capital is shortly about to fall below regulatory guidance. Further, the bad acquisitions and regulatory headaches should spur management to cut and run in the US. We look forward to Group results on February 23rd, and the clarity we will receive on its hot mess in the US.     

HSBC Holdings Plc –American Result Intimates Group Miss

<ul>
<li>Inflation exceeded consensus expectations again in Jan-21 while matching both our CPI and RPI forecasts of 0.7% and 1.4% respectively. Weighting changes were worth about 0.1pp to the CPI with the other 0.1pp caused by upside in furniture and restaurants.</li>
<li>The distortion in the UK was smaller than elsewhere in Europe because the weight on garments was raised rather than slammed down. This is likely to more than unwind next January if it's not corrected next month alongside the release of RPI weights.</li>
<li>A continued grind higher looks likely to occur in both Feb and Mar before inflation spikes back into the right ballpark of the target in April. We still expect a potential breach of the target in 2021, but for it to be of insignificant size and longevity.</li>
</ul>


Inflation exceeded consensus expectations again in Jan-21 while matching both our CPI and RPI forecasts of 0.7% and 1.4% respectively. Weighting changes were worth about 0.1pp to the CPI with the other 0.1pp caused by upside in furniture and restaurants.
The distortion in the UK was smaller than elsewhere in Europe because the weight on garments was raised rather than slammed down. This is likely to more than unwind next January if it's not corrected next month alongside the release of RPI weights.
A continued grind higher looks likely to occur in both Feb and Mar before inflation spikes back into the right ballpark of the target in April. We still expect a potential breach of the target in 2021, but for it to be of insignificant size and longevity.


United Kingdom

SPDR FTSE UK All Share ETF is an open ended, UCITS IV compliant exchange traded fund, domiciled in Ireland. The fund's objective is to track the performance of FTSE All Share Index. The Fund invests in physical securities in the index.

SPDR FTSE UK All Share (FTAL LN)

Investors fearful of a possible recession

What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”

Market Radar

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UK: Lockdown Exit-Road Full of GDP Peril

The beginning of the third national lockdown’s end on 8 March will only return conditions to those from the second one (November's). The UK is...

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HSBC Holdings Plc –American Result Intimates Group Miss

HSBC HOLDINGS PLC: HSBCNA reported troubling results in 4Q20 - declining 195% linked quarter, as operating costs exceed recurring revenues. This...

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UK: Inflation Up-Scaled in Jan-21

UK inflation exceeded consensus expectations in Jan-21 while precisely matching both our CPI and RPI forecasts. Re-weighting distortions were...

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