Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.</li>
<li>There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.</li>
<li>We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place</li>
</ul>


We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.
There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.
We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place


Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

In our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-short-term-catalysts-are-not-attractive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43675" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive</a>, we suggested that, while we like SCGP for its longer-term prospects, the company’s short-term performance is likely to be hindered by the sluggish Thai economy. However, we believe these short-term risks are compensated through the company’s valuation, which looks attractive to us even at the higher-end of the indicative IPO price range. We would consider subscribing to the IPO but would not rule out the possibility of a pullback in the short-run under margins pressure.

In our previous note, SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive, we suggested that, while we like SCGP for its longer-term prospects, the company’s short-term performance is likely to be hindered by the sluggish Thai economy. However, we believe these short-term risks are compensated through the company’s valuation, which looks attractive to us even at the higher-end of the indicative IPO price range. We would consider subscribing to the IPO but would not rule out the possibility of a pullback in the short-run under margins pressure.

SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4, respectively--confirming the widespread patterns visible in the charts of each Sector’s constituents: bottoms and bases.We have highlighted these evolving set-ups over the past year, identifying: improving internals in energy (Aug. 12), then labeling it as a bottom the following week; also, reiterating copper nearly twelve months ago from today, recommending fertilizers (Dec. 13), and reiterating metals &amp; mining stocks (Dec. 18).Given the improving relative strength trends coupled with constructive patterns, we are upgrading both sectors to overweight from market weight.

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel   exporters to the US.Steel exports to US from China are low at about 2.9mt in November. If the US adds more steel tariffs, it will have little impact to the steel market or prices but it will possibly cause a retaliation by the Chinese.China only exports 26% of Global Steel Exports, far lower than the 50% of their total global steel production. Most of Chinese steel exports go to other Asian…

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel   exporters to the US.Steel exports to US from China are low at about 2.9mt in November. If the US adds more steel tariffs, it will have little impact to the steel market or prices but it will possibly cause a retaliation by the Chinese.China only exports 26% of Global Steel Exports, far lower than the 50% of their total global steel production. Most of Chinese steel exports go to other Asian…

Market Is Wrong on US Tariffs for Chinese Steel

United States

Sonoco Products Company manufactures industrial and consumer packaging solutions for customers around the world.  The Company's products include flexible packaging, high density film products, and folding cartons.  Sonoco Products also has an integrated network of global technology centers focused on materials science, packaging engineering, and process improvement.

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Sonoco Products Co (SON US)

Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Now that we have seen indiscriminate panic selling, we are now looking for panic buying in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact; Growth Vs. Value Stalemate Continues

Market dynamics remain positive and there continues to be an absence of breakdowns across the broad indexes and Sectors. As a result we remain...

Vermilion Research

SCG Packaging IPO: Risks-Rewards Attractive at the Higher-End of the IPO Price Range

In our previous note, SCG Packaging IPO: Short-Term Catalysts Are Not Attractive, we suggested that, while we like SCGP for its longer-term...

Supun Walpola

Upgrading U.S. Energy & Materials Sectors to Overweight

Both Energy and Materials have hurriedly advanced within our relative strength rankings over the past several weeks--now ranking #2 and #4,...

Vermilion Research

Market Is Wrong on US Tariffs for Chinese Steel

The market is expecting US tariffs on Chinese steel exports wrongly believing Chinese are major steel exporters to the US.Steel exports to US...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

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