Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings</a> ’ US IPO.</li>
<li>ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings ’ US IPO.
ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


ARM Holdings Limited - The Positives - Pervasive Global Presence

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent.</li>
<li>While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the likely impact of Prosus' shareholding on passive flows at the time of settlement.</li>
</ul>


On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent.
While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.
In this note, we talk about the likely impact of Prosus' shareholding on passive flows at the time of settlement.


JD.com Tencent Div Distribution - The US$10bn Overhang - Passives Might Have to Sell

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Traditionally, telecom companies in mature markets are "easy."  Infrastructure is basically built, but there is always maintenance and capex to upgrade throughput. Churn is low. Customers occasionally add on new services. They are generally cash machines. Comparing telcos is often reasonably easy. Mostly it comes down to how aggressively the company prices to customers, how it seeks non-standard revenue off its infrastructure and sales base, or how it returns capital to shareholders. <div class="content-highlight">Every now and then, a telecom company gets complicated. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> is now one of those companies.</div>The issue is now significant enough that one should avoid using EBIT or EBITDA (or EBITDA less capex) for Softbank Corp as a comparative tool to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> without more clarity. There is recently a new kicker involved too, which means one should probably consider Softbank Corp differently than the other two for OTHER reasons too.

Traditionally, telecom companies in mature markets are "easy."  Infrastructure is basically built, but there is always maintenance and capex to upgrade throughput. Churn is low. Customers occasionally add on new services. They are generally cash machines. Comparing telcos is often reasonably easy. Mostly it comes down to how aggressively the company prices to customers, how it seeks non-standard revenue off its infrastructure and sales base, or how it returns capital to shareholders. Every now and then, a telecom company gets complicated. Softbank Corp (9434 JP) is now one of those companies.The issue is now significant enough that one should avoid using EBIT or EBITDA (or EBITDA less capex) for Softbank Corp as a comparative tool to NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) without more clarity. There is recently a new kicker involved too, which means one should probably consider Softbank Corp differently than the other two for OTHER reasons too. 

Softbank Corp - Accounting for The Accounting Is Complicated

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

2020 saw Asia Pacific activist campaigns down 9.7% YoY. Considering the issues which played out over the year this is a better than expected result. What is key is that Asia remained resilient compared to Europe which saw a 16% YoY decline, in activism campaigns respectively. Sifting through the data highlights some interesting and share price impactful trends when looking at how Activism may play out in 2021.

2020 saw Asia Pacific activist campaigns down 9.7% YoY. Considering the issues which played out over the year this is a better than expected result. What is key is that Asia remained resilient compared to Europe which saw a 16% YoY decline, in activism campaigns respectively. Sifting through the data highlights some interesting and share price impactful trends when looking at how Activism may play out in 2021.

Notes from the Silk Road: Activism - 2020 Review Reveals Some Interesting Trends

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

*MUFG Pre-Announcement: According to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG], FY 2019 preliminary profit declined to its lowest level in a decade after MUFG added JPY 100 bn to JPY 520 bn (results due out on May 15th) due to  COVID-19-related charges and stock holdings hurt by volatile markets. This is the second earnings revision in less than a year, as guidance is now down 40% in aggregate.*Still Overstating Earnings Despite Downgrade: All else equal, MUFG – based on its lax discretionary provisioning methodology - is overstating preliminary results between JPY 916-1,042 bn, by our calculation.*Pig Piling Continues: The lack of provisioning is far from the only problem MUFG must manage. ACOM is a chronically understates kaburai risk; post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; continued impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

*MUFG Pre-Announcement: According to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG], FY 2019 preliminary profit declined to its lowest level in a decade after MUFG added JPY 100 bn to JPY 520 bn (results due out on May 15th) due to  COVID-19-related charges and stock holdings hurt by volatile markets. This is the second earnings revision in less than a year, as guidance is now down 40% in aggregate.*Still Overstating Earnings Despite Downgrade: All else equal, MUFG – based on its lax discretionary provisioning methodology - is overstating preliminary results between JPY 916-1,042 bn, by our calculation.*Pig Piling Continues: The lack of provisioning is far from the only problem MUFG must manage. ACOM is a chronically understates kaburai risk; post-COVID-19, we calculate that MUFG America’s will have a regulatory capital shortfall of up to USD 6.5 bn or 40% of MUFG America’s stated equity; continued impairments on subsidiaries; significant Softbank (9984.JP) exposure; and Morgan Stanley’s (MS.US) MUFG dilutive E*Trade (ETFC.US) transaction.

Japan

Softbank Technology Corp. provides electronic commerce (EC) related services. The Company mainly provides Internet systems integration, web site management, marketing consulting, and technical support services.

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Softbank Technology (4726 JP)

ARM Holdings Limited - The Positives - Pervasive Global Presence

Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings ’ US IPO. In this note, we talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

JD.com Tencent Div Distribution - The US$10bn Overhang - Passives Might Have to Sell

On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21...

Sumeet Singh

Softbank Corp - Accounting for The Accounting Is Complicated

Softbank Corporation is more expensive than it appears when one uses traditional telco metrics such as EV/EBITDA or EV/OP multiples. It's all in...

Travis Lundy

Notes from the Silk Road: Activism - 2020 Review Reveals Some Interesting Trends

2020 activism numbers are in with some interesting underlying trends reflecting possibilities of how campaigns in 2021 & 2022 may evolve notably...

David Lepper

MUFG – Painful to Watch

*MUFG Pre-Announcement: According to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP) [MUFG], FY 2019 preliminary profit declined to its lowest level in a...

Thomas J. Monaco

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