Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Why is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> trading wide? FUD and Flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> plumbs new 12-month lows for its implied stub, and NAV discount as the former PM returns from exile. </li>
<li>You would NOT want to short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m-a-research-institute-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36749:1" rel="noopener">M&amp;A Research Institute (9552 JP) </a> into the inclusion. But the ascension to TOPIX is not a surprise.</li>
</ul>


Why is JSR Corp (4185 JP) trading wide? FUD and Flows.

Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) plumbs new 12-month lows for its implied stub, and NAV discount as the former PM returns from exile. 
You would NOT want to short M&amp;A Research Institute (9552 JP)  into the inclusion. But the ascension to TOPIX is not a surprise.


Last Week In Event SPACE: JSR, Intouch/Thaksin, Softbank/ARM, M&A Research, Premier

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robosense-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39903:1" rel="noopener">Robosense Technology (2498 HK)</a> raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.</li>
<li>The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Robosense Technology (2498 HK) raised around US$126m in its Hong Kong IPO in Jan 2024. The lockup on its shareholders will expire soon.
The company provides LiDAR and perception solutions to its customers. As of March 2024, it had design wins for mass production of LiDAR products with 22 automotive OEMs and suppliers.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Softbank and the Vision Fund’s exposure to WeWork – estimated at USD1.8bn – look increasingly to be at risk of being written off</li>
<li>Masa’s debts to SoftBank stand at USD5.1bn at 1QFY23 end and we believe that private company valuations are vulnerable, especially in the light of the recent Union Square Ventures write-downs</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 36% discount to the stated NAV; with Alibaba gone, the potential Arm IPO valuation is critical but SVF1 and 2 private company valuations remain questionable</li>
</ul>


Softbank and the Vision Fund’s exposure to WeWork – estimated at USD1.8bn – look increasingly to be at risk of being written off
Masa’s debts to SoftBank stand at USD5.1bn at 1QFY23 end and we believe that private company valuations are vulnerable, especially in the light of the recent Union Square Ventures write-downs
Softbank shares trade at a 36% discount to the stated NAV; with Alibaba gone, the potential Arm IPO valuation is critical but SVF1 and 2 private company valuations remain questionable


Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork on the Brink and Other Factors

<ul>
<li>The SoftBank share price rally is, in our view, based on optimism around the Arm IPO, the Yen’s relative weakness and recovering share prices of public companies in the portfolio</li>
<li>Nvidia’s emergence as a potential anchor investor in the Arm IPO has boosted SoftBank shares, yet there is still a big disparity between groups in terms of Arm’s potential valuation</li>
<li>Aside from a recovery in public tech companies’ shares, Yen weakness has supported SoftBank’s asset values; monetary policy moves now indicate the prospect of a stronger Yen versus the USD</li>
</ul>


The SoftBank share price rally is, in our view, based on optimism around the Arm IPO, the Yen’s relative weakness and recovering share prices of public companies in the portfolio
Nvidia’s emergence as a potential anchor investor in the Arm IPO has boosted SoftBank shares, yet there is still a big disparity between groups in terms of Arm’s potential valuation
Aside from a recovery in public tech companies’ shares, Yen weakness has supported SoftBank’s asset values; monetary policy moves now indicate the prospect of a stronger Yen versus the USD


SoftBank Group (9984 JP) – Reasons to Be Careful

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a>’s cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding.
MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: JSR, Intouch/Thaksin, Softbank/ARM, M&A Research, Premier

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Robosense IPO Lock-Up Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Expiry for 99% of the Stock, CCASS Movement

The pre-IPO shareholders came out of lockup today, leading to a 67% drop in the share price with an accompanying spike in volumes.

Sumeet Singh

Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork on the Brink and Other Factors

Despite the Arm IPO potential, we continue to be cautious on Softbank due to its WeWork exposure, the risk of over-valuation of private companies...

Victor Galliano