Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

With the Q2/20 earnings season completed and Q3 season underway, the impact of COVID-19 on the credit profiles of issuers under our coverage is becoming more visible. Several companies have already achieved solid recoveries in Q3, as reflected by their results. However, new government-imposed lockdowns will have a substantial impact on the Q4 numbers.  We believe it is useful to analyse how COVID-19 has impacted companies at the height of the pandemic in Q2/20. As such, we provide an overview of the development of credit stats and liquidity, followed by brief round-ups of the developments and outlooks in the industries and various companies that we cover.

  With the Q2/20 earnings season completed and Q3 season underway, the impact of COVID-19 on the credit profiles of issuers under our coverage is becoming more visible. Several companies have already achieved solid recoveries in Q3, as reflected by their results. However, new government-imposed lockdowns will have a substantial impact on the Q4 numbers.    We believe it is useful to analyse how COVID-19 has impacted companies at the height of the pandemic in Q2/20. As such, we provide an overview of the development of credit stats and liquidity, followed by brief round-ups of the developments and outlooks in the industries and various companies that we cover. 

Europe HY – Q2/20 Results Review And Credit Metrics Amid COVID-19 - Lucror Analytics

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Softbank Corp. posted a solid Q2 helped by Internet upside, a one-time gain from how it accounts for handset instalment plans and solid upside in enterprise sales as telework/WFH trends boost sales. The company kept FY guidance intact despite H1 outperformance as there could be headwinds from mobile pricing changes and higher spending at Z Holdings but management confidence on the analyst call was high.  Importantly, the company also provided reassurance on the dividend and reduced regulatory exposure.

Softbank Corp. posted a solid Q2 helped by Internet upside, a one-time gain from how it accounts for handset instalment plans and solid upside in enterprise sales as telework/WFH trends boost sales. The company kept FY guidance intact despite H1 outperformance as there could be headwinds from mobile pricing changes and higher spending at Z Holdings but management confidence on the analyst call was high.  Importantly, the company also provided reassurance on the dividend and reduced regulatory exposure. 

Softbank Corp - Q2 20 Results: Positive Financial Report and Dividend Reassurance

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/891/original/2020-10-01_13-26-50.png?1601526452" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162891"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan Analytics</div>
SHORT TENURE - Since 1979 the average prime ministerial tenure in Japan has been 750 days. Excluding the three longest-serving Prime Ministers of the last forty years - Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2 - the average is 494 days. The equity market has favoured long-serving Liberal Democratic Party government (marked in light green above) and disliked periods of coalition or opposition (野党 yatō) government and also tenures of less than eighteen months.
PM SUGA - Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide succeeded former Prime Minister Abe on 16th September the latter having stepped down for health reasons. Suga had served as Chief Cabinet Secretary (内閣官房長官, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan) for all of Abe's premiership. The continuity offered by Suga's elevation provides Japan with the prospect of an extended period of political stability. From his policy statements made during the brief prime-ministerial election campaign, Suga has bold aims for challenging Japan's economic and social ills. Given his previous role and mastery of the balance between political necessities and bureaucratic realities, the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy and stock market.
<hr>
In the DETAIL below, we shall cover the following topics:-
I: SUGA's BACKGROUND &amp; POLITICAL CAREER
II: POLICY PRIORITIES
Defence &amp; Foreign Policy
Economic Policy
Administrative Reform
The Digital Agency
Telecommunications Services
Birth-rate and Fertility Treatment
Regional Revitalisation &amp; Regional Bank Reform
SME restructuring
Carbon Neutrality &amp; A Nuclear Renaissance
III: SUGA STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
<hr>
WHAT'S ORIGINAL? - This Insight reviews the implications of PM Suga's policy platform for specific sectors and stocks in the Japanse equity market and concludes with five long and five short recommendations for large-cap growth and value-orientated portfolios.  
<hr>
<blockquote class="">
"Self-help, mutual help, public help, and "kizuna" (bonds) is our vision for society. With that in mind, we firmly believe, overcoming various issues, such as regional revitalization and the shrinking population, as well as the declining birth-rate and aging society, will create dynamism in Japan. To this end, we will meet the people's expectations by giving birth to a "Cabinet that works for the People," which gives its all to advance regulatory reforms without being constrained by the vested interests of the stakeholders, tearing down bureaucratic sectionalism and the notorious habit of following past precedents.
<h3>Statement of the Prime Minister</h3>
September 16th, 2020
</blockquote>


Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan Analytics
SHORT TENURE - Since 1979 the average prime ministerial tenure in Japan has been 750 days. Excluding the three longest-serving Prime Ministers of the last forty years - Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2 - the average is 494 days. The equity market has favoured long-serving Liberal Democratic Party government (marked in light green above) and disliked periods of coalition or opposition (野党 yatō) government and also tenures of less than eighteen months.
PM SUGA - Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide succeeded former Prime Minister Abe on 16th September the latter having stepped down for health reasons. Suga had served as Chief Cabinet Secretary (内閣官房長官, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan) for all of Abe's premiership. The continuity offered by Suga's elevation provides Japan with the prospect of an extended period of political stability. From his policy statements made during the brief prime-ministerial election campaign, Suga has bold aims for challenging Japan's economic and social ills. Given his previous role and mastery of the balance between political necessities and bureaucratic realities, the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy and stock market.

In the DETAIL below, we shall cover the following topics:-
I: SUGA's BACKGROUND &amp; POLITICAL CAREER
II: POLICY PRIORITIES
Defence &amp; Foreign Policy
Economic Policy
Administrative Reform
The Digital Agency
Telecommunications Services
Birth-rate and Fertility Treatment
Regional Revitalisation &amp; Regional Bank Reform
SME restructuring
Carbon Neutrality &amp; A Nuclear Renaissance
III: SUGA STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS

WHAT'S ORIGINAL? - This Insight reviews the implications of PM Suga's policy platform for specific sectors and stocks in the Japanse equity market and concludes with five long and five short recommendations for large-cap growth and value-orientated portfolios.  


"Self-help, mutual help, public help, and "kizuna" (bonds) is our vision for society. With that in mind, we firmly believe, overcoming various issues, such as regional revitalization and the shrinking population, as well as the declining birth-rate and aging society, will create dynamism in Japan. To this end, we will meet the people's expectations by giving birth to a "Cabinet that works for the People," which gives its all to advance regulatory reforms without being constrained by the vested interests of the stakeholders, tearing down bureaucratic sectionalism and the notorious habit of following past precedents.
Statement of the Prime Minister
September 16th, 2020


🇯🇵 Japan in the Suga Era - Policy Priorities & 'Suga Stocks'

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Europe HY – Q2/20 Results Review And Credit Metrics Amid COVID-19 - Lucror Analytics

With the Q2/20 earnings season completed and Q3 season underway, the impact of COVID-19 on the credit profiles of issuers under our coverage is...

Lucror Analytics

Softbank Corp - Q2 20 Results: Positive Financial Report and Dividend Reassurance

For Q2 20, Softbank beat financial expectations, reassured on the dividend and highlighted how diversification has lowered regulatory exposure.

Kirk Boodry

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

🇯🇵 Japan in the Suga Era - Policy Priorities & 'Suga Stocks'

We believe the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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