Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Arm’s valuation has driven the group NAV to a new high at fiscal year-end in March; with Arm accounting for 45% of group equity value, NAV downside risk is high</li>
<li>JPY depreciation has been NAV supportive, but this could reverse; SVF2 remains very exposed to financing costs, with 87% of its equity value in private companies</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 57% discount to the estimated NAV; yet the downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with SVF2 valuation headwinds, should keep the discount wide</li>
</ul>


Arm’s valuation has driven the group NAV to a new high at fiscal year-end in March; with Arm accounting for 45% of group equity value, NAV downside risk is high
JPY depreciation has been NAV supportive, but this could reverse; SVF2 remains very exposed to financing costs, with 87% of its equity value in private companies
Softbank shares trade at a 57% discount to the estimated NAV; yet the downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with SVF2 valuation headwinds, should keep the discount wide


Softbank (9984 JP): Has Group NAV Peaked?

Private Capital Markets

Revolut Limited / Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn</li>
<li>We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank</li>
<li>Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence</li>
</ul>


Management is targeting a USD40bn IPO valuation for Revolut; the last funding round in 2021 valued it at USD33bn, but current year investor valuations have ranged from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn
We provide key fintech and bank ratios for the UK digital banks; Revolut is more an FX paytech with a small loan book; Starling is a more “balanced” digital bank
Relative to its UK unlisted peers and select listed digital peers, Revolut’s target IPO valuation does appear to be rich; it is also still seeking a UK bank licence


Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value</li>
<li>We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2</li>
<li>We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation</li>
</ul>


There is downside risk to SoftBank’s NAV, due to valuations relating to Arm and the Vision Funds including LatAm; on aggregate, these holdings account for 70% of group equity value
We believe that Arm’s super-premium valuation is unsustainable; there is lack of transparency on the valuations relating to the unlisted Vision Fund holdings, especially in SVF2
We estimate that SoftBank shares trade at a 44% NAV discount, tighter than the average at the end of the last eight quarters; add to this Arm’s current over valuation


SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.</li>
<li>I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. </li>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.</span></li>
</ul>


ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

Softbank (9984 JP): Has Group NAV Peaked?

Softbank's NAV has risen to a new peak driven by Arm's market valuation and helped by JPY weakness; yet Arm's super premium valuation poses...

Victor Galliano

Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

Revolut targets a USD40bn IPO valuation, but recent investor valuations range from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn; compared to a broad peer group,...

Victor Galliano

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...

Victor Galliano

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Softbank (9984 JP): Has Group NAV Peaked?

​Softbank's NAV has risen to a new peak driven by Arm's market valuation and helped by JPY weakness; yet Arm's super premium valuation poses...

Victor Galliano

Revolut IPO Prospects – Rich Target Valuation Relative to Digital Bank Peers

​Revolut targets a USD40bn IPO valuation, but recent investor valuations range from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn; compared to a broad peer group,...

Victor Galliano

SoftBank Group (9984 JP): More Downside Risk to the NAV than Upside Potential

​SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...

Victor Galliano

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Softbank's NAV has risen to a new peak driven by Arm's market valuation and helped by JPY weakness; yet Arm's super premium valuation poses...

Revolut targets a USD40bn IPO valuation, but recent investor valuations range from USD19.9bn to USD25.7bn; compared to a broad peer group,...

SoftBank trades at a 44% discount to the NAV; it has downside risk due to high market valuations of Arm and the unlisted SVF holdings lack...