Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Softbank shares have fallen 26% over two days and that is AFTER the company revealed its ¥500bn share buyback.  Softbank now trades at a 67% discount to fair value, down from 47% a mere two weeks ago. That assumes the private assets like non-public Vision Fund and ARM are valued at cost which may be too aggressive but even if one assumes zero value, the discount is still in unchartered territory at 53%. We have been concerned about Vision Fund/private equity, skeptical on WeWork, and cautious on Softbank in a risk-off environment but the shares look oversold now.

Softbank shares have fallen 26% over two days and that is AFTER the company revealed its ¥500bn share buyback.  Softbank now trades at a 67% discount to fair value, down from 47% a mere two weeks ago. That assumes the private assets like non-public Vision Fund and ARM are valued at cost which may be too aggressive but even if one assumes zero value, the discount is still in unchartered territory at 53%. We have been concerned about Vision Fund/private equity, skeptical on WeWork, and cautious on Softbank in a risk-off environment but the shares look oversold now. 

Softbank Group: With Discount Approaching 70% This Appears Oversold

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6827'>Abm Investama</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-13022'>Anton Oilfield</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-2556'>Chandra Asri Petrochemical</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-27445'>Softbank Corp</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Abm InvestamaAnton OilfieldChandra Asri PetrochemicalSoftbank Corp

Morning Views Asia: Abm Investama, Anton Oilfield, Chandra Asri Petrochemical, Softbank Corp

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With COVID-19 and stimulus packages being in the news day in and day out, here are my two cents on what policy makers need to do to get over this relatively quickly and with as little pain to the common man as possible. Whether its possible to do so or not is a different story.

With COVID-19 and stimulus packages being in the news day in and day out, here are my two cents on what policy makers need to do to get over this relatively quickly and with as little pain to the common man as possible. Whether its possible to do so or not is a different story. 

The Month the World Stood Still - A Novice Small Business Guide to Avoiding a Long Recession

Bloomberg reports Softbank has told WeWork's other shareholders that in light of various government investigations it may not proceed with its offer to buy their shares. On the surface, that is the right move for Softbank which can ill afford to send another $3bn into that money pit (S$P Ratings has just put Softbank debt on negative outlook) but let's be clear that investigations are just a pretext and that it's the business model under threat.There is clear downside for Softbank as WeWork is very likely finished as a viable business which will knock $3-4bn in value off the books even as Softbank faces a third straight quarter of losses for Vision Fund.  Valuation losses from WeWork and the public portfolio have taken private equity returns negative when the parent company performance is included alongside Vision Fund whilst rating agencies concerns on debt have risen. A material narrowing of the holding company discount, now 61%, seems unlikely in volatile markets and we remain cautious on Softbank.

Bloomberg reports Softbank has told WeWork's other shareholders that in light of various government investigations it may not proceed with its offer to buy their shares. On the surface, that is the right move for Softbank which can ill afford to send another $3bn into that money pit (S$P Ratings has just put Softbank debt on negative outlook) but let's be clear that investigations are just a pretext and that it's the business model under threat.There is clear downside for Softbank as WeWork is very likely finished as a viable business which will knock $3-4bn in value off the books even as Softbank faces a third straight quarter of losses for Vision Fund.  Valuation losses from WeWork and the public portfolio have taken private equity returns negative when the parent company performance is included alongside Vision Fund whilst rating agencies concerns on debt have risen. A material narrowing of the holding company discount, now 61%, seems unlikely in volatile markets and we remain cautious on Softbank. 

Softbank Group: WeWork Failure and Uber Erosion Take Private Equity Returns Negative

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Smartkarma will be hosting a flash webinar with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/vicki-bryan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2708" rel="noopener">Vicki Bryan</a> to discuss the unfolding developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/we-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28061:1" rel="noopener">The We Company (WeWork) (WE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>. The webinar will begin on Thursday, 19th March, at 0730 hours Singapore/Hong Kong time (1830 hours CST).
<a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=720349471" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Click here to register</a>.

Smartkarma will be hosting a flash webinar with Vicki Bryan to discuss the unfolding developments at The We Company (WeWork) (WE US) and Softbank Group (9984 JP). The webinar will begin on Thursday, 19th March, at 0730 hours Singapore/Hong Kong time (1830 hours CST).
Click here to register.

Smartkarma Webinar | The Softbank WeWork Unwind?

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

Softbank Group: With Discount Approaching 70% This Appears Oversold

Softbank shares have fallen 26% over two days and that is AFTER the company revealed its ¥500bn share buyback. Softbank now trades at a 67%...

Kirk Boodry

Morning Views Asia: Abm Investama, Anton Oilfield, Chandra Asri Petrochemical, Softbank Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

The Month the World Stood Still - A Novice Small Business Guide to Avoiding a Long Recession

With COVID-19 and stimulus packages being in the news day in and day out, here are my two cents on what policy makers need to do to get over this...

Sumeet Singh

Softbank Group: WeWork Failure and Uber Erosion Take Private Equity Returns Negative

Bloomberg reports Softbank has told WeWork's other shareholders that in light of various government investigations it may not proceed with its...

Kirk Boodry

Smartkarma Webinar | The Softbank WeWork Unwind?

Smartkarma will be hosting a flash webinar with Vicki Bryan to discuss the unfolding developments at The We Company (WeWork) (WE US) and Softbank...

Smartkarma Research

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