Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV, most of which are themselves rather overvalued in our opinion. First up, we examine Arm which is seeing a lot of pushback against its potential acquisition by Nvidia.

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV, most of which are themselves rather overvalued in our opinion. First up, we examine Arm which is seeing a lot of pushback against its potential acquisition by Nvidia.

Softbank – Looking at the NAV Components - ARM

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Softbank Group shares fell 5% which seems like an outsize move relative to the overall markets (TOPIX -2%, NASDAQ -0.5%) but that does come off a record low discount (-16%). And whilst that has expanded to 20% it remains far better than the 27% discount when the company reported Q3 results on 8 Feb. One big difference is the Coupang IPO filing which implies at least $10bn in upside for Vision Fund based on aspirational pricing. If tech sentiment decidedly turns, the lost potential is probably as relevant for Softbank shares as today’s absolute downside for Vision Fund (-$1bn) and Alibaba (-2%, ~$2bn).

Softbank Group shares fell 5% which seems like an outsize move relative to the overall markets (TOPIX -2%, NASDAQ -0.5%) but that does come off a record low discount (-16%). And whilst that has expanded to 20% it remains far better than the 27% discount when the company reported Q3 results on 8 Feb. One big difference is the Coupang IPO filing which implies at least $10bn in upside for Vision Fund based on aspirational pricing. If tech sentiment decidedly turns, the lost potential is probably as relevant for Softbank shares as today’s absolute downside for Vision Fund (-$1bn) and Alibaba (-2%, ~$2bn).

Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

With the Nikkei 225 index breaking 30k this month, we thought it pertinent to look in more detail at Japan positioning among Global fund managers.  Our data shows that Japan is underowned by Global managers versus its own history and held underweight versus the benchmark MSCI All Country World index.  Current positioning levels are towards their lowest ever levels, yet we are not seeing a sweeping reversal of sentiment in our data just yet, merely a stalling of the declines. However, the outperformance of MSCI Japan versus the AC World index over the last 6-months and the psychological breaking of 30,000 in the Nikkei 225 index are both signs that momentum is gathering steam.   We see rising ownership levels in a number of key companies, led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> and high conviction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a> among Global investors.  Outside of these 4 stocks, we would highlight the largest index weight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> as a laggard and a stock that has the potential to play a much greater role in Global portfolios going forwards.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn

With the Nikkei 225 index breaking 30k this month, we thought it pertinent to look in more detail at Japan positioning among Global fund managers.  Our data shows that Japan is underowned by Global managers versus its own history and held underweight versus the benchmark MSCI All Country World index.  Current positioning levels are towards their lowest ever levels, yet we are not seeing a sweeping reversal of sentiment in our data just yet, merely a stalling of the declines. However, the outperformance of MSCI Japan versus the AC World index over the last 6-months and the psychological breaking of 30,000 in the Nikkei 225 index are both signs that momentum is gathering steam.   We see rising ownership levels in a number of key companies, led by Sony Corp (6758 JP) , Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) and high conviction in Keyence Corp (6861 JP) among Global investors.  Outside of these 4 stocks, we would highlight the largest index weight, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) as a laggard and a stock that has the potential to play a much greater role in Global portfolios going forwards.Analysis taken from our Global active fund research, covering 386 managers with combined AUM of $960bn 

Global Fund Positioning in Japan:  Underweight and Underowned

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The COVID-19 crisis was the dominant issue in 2020, with certain industries (e.g. travel & leisure, gaming and selected retail players) remaining greatly affected. Going forward, the ability to contain the virus, the potential long-term impact on selected industries, and the speed at which economies are re-opened will continue to be major market drivers. On the policy front, the focus should shift to the Biden administration's plans and especially US-China relations, while central banks are expected to remain supportive for now. We cover these topics in our HY Investment Outlook: (1) our high-conviction trade recommendations; (2) ESG developments, with this area rapidly evolving and increasingly being integrated in the investment process; (3) the COVID-19 crisis, along with other key macroeconomic, geopolitical and monetary developments in 2020; (4) developments in European HY markets; as well as (5) how credit stats and liquidity have evolved for the companies and industries under our coverage.

  The COVID-19 crisis was the dominant issue in 2020, with certain industries (e.g. travel & leisure, gaming and selected retail players) remaining greatly affected. Going forward, the ability to contain the virus, the potential long-term impact on selected industries, and the speed at which economies are re-opened will continue to be major market drivers. On the policy front, the focus should shift to the Biden administration's plans and especially US-China relations, while central banks are expected to remain supportive for now.   We cover these topics in our HY Investment Outlook: (1) our high-conviction trade recommendations; (2) ESG developments, with this area rapidly evolving and increasingly being integrated in the investment process; (3) the COVID-19 crisis, along with other key macroeconomic, geopolitical and monetary developments in 2020; (4) developments in European HY markets; as well as (5) how credit stats and liquidity have evolved for the companies and industries under our coverage. 

European High Yield Outlook 2021 & Trade Book For February - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

In late November, I updated my "JAPAN FLOW:  Foreign Investor Flows Still Matter" series with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-foreign-investor-flows-still-matter-redux-reduxed-playing-catchup" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45711" rel="noopener">JAPAN FLOW:  Foreign Investor Flows Still Matter (Redux, Reduxed) - Playing Catchup</a>.The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically based on a relatively simple indicator. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/938/original/Screenshot+2021-02-21+at+6.33.43+PM.png?1613903639" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189938"></figure></section>This chart shows 26-week cumulative net buying vs the indicator, which moves faster, but if you break down that average into a shorter-term average, it moves "faster" in response to moves in the light blue line. My conclusion in late November was that foreigners were "behind the curve" and needed to play catchup. That was despite the fact that they had purchased ¥1.5trln of stocks in the previous four weeks. Since end-November, they have net purchased more than ¥1.7 trillion worth of Japanese equities through 12 February (the data through 19 Feb is not available until 26 February). The inputs to the indicator currently suggest it could go either way from here, but as shown in the chart above (the light blue line) it is an oscillator. And generally speaking, when oscillators reach the outer limits of their ranges, they tend to revert. And the dark blue line has a ¥1.4trln "tailwind" over the next 7 weeks. <div class="content-highlight">But foreign investment flows into Japan are basically a WANT function. They buy more if they want to do so. I often find it instructive to look at flows in terms of WANT vs NEED. NEED is more compelling, and there are some compelling "NEED flows" in the next 6 weeks.</div>More below the fold.

In late November, I updated my "JAPAN FLOW:  Foreign Investor Flows Still Matter" series with JAPAN FLOW:  Foreign Investor Flows Still Matter (Redux, Reduxed) - Playing Catchup.The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically based on a relatively simple indicator. This chart shows 26-week cumulative net buying vs the indicator, which moves faster, but if you break down that average into a shorter-term average, it moves "faster" in response to moves in the light blue line. My conclusion in late November was that foreigners were "behind the curve" and needed to play catchup. That was despite the fact that they had purchased ¥1.5trln of stocks in the previous four weeks. Since end-November, they have net purchased more than ¥1.7 trillion worth of Japanese equities through 12 February (the data through 19 Feb is not available until 26 February). The inputs to the indicator currently suggest it could go either way from here, but as shown in the chart above (the light blue line) it is an oscillator. And generally speaking, when oscillators reach the outer limits of their ranges, they tend to revert. And the dark blue line has a ¥1.4trln "tailwind" over the next 7 weeks. But foreign investment flows into Japan are basically a WANT function. They buy more if they want to do so. I often find it instructive to look at flows in terms of WANT vs NEED. NEED is more compelling, and there are some compelling "NEED flows" in the next 6 weeks.More below the fold.

JAPAN FLOW:  Foreign Investor Flows Catching Up ('Need' Vs 'Want' into FY-End)

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp provides telecommunication services.  The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (ADR) (SFTBY US)

Softbank – Looking at the NAV Components - ARM

With Softbank’s holdco discount shrinking to historically low levels, we examine each of the components of its NAV starting with Arm

Mio Kato

Softbank Group: Jitters in a Frothy Market

Tech jitters hit Softbank shares which dropped 5% v -1% for NASDAQ. We think the gap is partially explained by the Coupang IPO and low visibility...

Kirk Boodry

Global Fund Positioning in Japan: Underweight and Underowned

With the Nikkei 225 index breaking 30k this month, Global managers remain under-invested and underweight Japan versus the benchmark MSCI All...

Steven Holden

European High Yield Outlook 2021 & Trade Book For February - Lucror Analytics

The COVID-19 crisis was the dominant issue in 2020, with certain industries (e.g. travel & leisure, gaming and selected retail players)...

Lucror Analytics

JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Flows Catching Up ('Need' Vs 'Want' into FY-End)

JAPAN FLOW: There are fundamentals, and there are flows. Japan is driven by both. Japan earnings revisions are finally on their way up. Flows have...

Travis Lundy

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