Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Varo bank published 4Q22 results that revealed lower quarterly cash burn through cost control, but revenue per client declined and the very high customer acquisition cost</li>
<li>SoFi’s cost reduction success in 4Q22 seems, in contrast to Varo, to have limited revenue loss, thereby bringing SoFi closer to breakeven; it trades at a premium to peers</li>
<li>These early 4Q22 results signals may provide some read across which we believe could be negative for Dave in particular, as well being a reality check for Inter’s US ambitions</li>
</ul>


Varo bank published 4Q22 results that revealed lower quarterly cash burn through cost control, but revenue per client declined and the very high customer acquisition cost
SoFi’s cost reduction success in 4Q22 seems, in contrast to Varo, to have limited revenue loss, thereby bringing SoFi closer to breakeven; it trades at a premium to peers
These early 4Q22 results signals may provide some read across which we believe could be negative for Dave in particular, as well being a reality check for Inter’s US ambitions


US Neobanks; Warning Signals from SoFi and Varo 4Q Results

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Aquila Acquisition Corporation / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SPACs - remember them? US offerings in 2021 topped ~US$150bn, falling to US$13bn in 2022. Singapore joined the bandwagon in January 2022  and Hong Kong two months later.</li>
<li>That Hong Kong stock is <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a></strong>, and it recently announced a merger with <strong>ZG Group</strong>, a Chinese steel trading website.</li>
<li>That's positive. Less positive is how de-SPACed shares tend to trade in the US. </li>
</ul>


SPACs - remember them? US offerings in 2021 topped ~US$150bn, falling to US$13bn in 2022. Singapore joined the bandwagon in January 2022  and Hong Kong two months later.
That Hong Kong stock is Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK), and it recently announced a merger with ZG Group, a Chinese steel trading website.
That's positive. Less positive is how de-SPACed shares tend to trade in the US. 


SPAC Deep Dive, subSPAC

subSPAC

SPAC Deep Dive

Each week we’ll identify and break down for you SPACs that are capturing market share and making an impact.

<ul><li>With the inception of the pandemic, borrowers have largely been wrestling with financial distress, compelling fintech companies like SoFi technologies, which banks on student loan financing, to largely reimagine their business model.</li><li>SoFi has moved away from its core business over the past three years, instead casting a wider net, extending its services to include diverse financial products, personal loans, and its banking-as-a-service business targeting enterprise customers.</li><li>In 2023, SoFi has had to grapple with mounting external pressures emanating from a slowing economy.</li></ul>

With the inception of the pandemic, borrowers have largely been wrestling with financial distress, compelling fintech companies like SoFi technologies, which banks on student loan financing, to largely reimagine their business model.SoFi has moved away from its core business over the past three years, instead casting a wider net, extending its services to include diverse financial products, personal loans, and its banking-as-a-service business targeting enterprise customers.In 2023, SoFi has had to grapple with mounting external pressures emanating from a slowing economy.

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.</li><li>As of last Friday’s close, the S&amp;P 500 is up about 2% YTD. However, without the contribution of chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) it would be flat YTD.</li><li>Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.</li></ul>

Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.As of last Friday’s close, the S&amp;P 500 is up about 2% YTD. However, without the contribution of chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) it would be flat YTD.Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall S&amp;P 500 index performance.

<ul>
<li>Fintechs and neobanks suffered a valuations reality check in 2022, due to rising interest (and discount) rates, poor fundamental results coupled with - in certain cases - high cash burn</li>
<li>Most neobanks need to improve customer activity rates as well as product and revenue penetration; legacy banks are responding to disruptors and in developed markets megafintechs are encroaching on neobanks</li>
<li>We see 2023 neobank picks driven by bottom-up calls on focused execution; we turn constructive on Nubank, stay negative on Inter and Jago and neutral on Kakaobank and Banco PAN</li>
</ul>


Fintechs and neobanks suffered a valuations reality check in 2022, due to rising interest (and discount) rates, poor fundamental results coupled with - in certain cases - high cash burn
Most neobanks need to improve customer activity rates as well as product and revenue penetration; legacy banks are responding to disruptors and in developed markets megafintechs are encroaching on neobanks
We see 2023 neobank picks driven by bottom-up calls on focused execution; we turn constructive on Nubank, stay negative on Inter and Jago and neutral on Kakaobank and Banco PAN


EM and DM Neobanks in 2023; Selective Opportunity Driven by Bottom-Up Execution

United States

SoFi Technologies, Inc. is an online personal finance company and online bank. The Company provides financial products including student and auto loan refinancing, mortgages, personal loans, credit card, investing, and banking through both mobile app and desktop interfaces. SoFi Technologies serves customers in the United States.

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SoFi Technologies (SOFI US)

US Neobanks; Warning Signals from SoFi and Varo 4Q Results

Varo bank's 4Q results revealed lower quarterly cash burn through cost control, but revenue per client declined; SoFi seemed to have done a bit...

Victor Galliano

Aquila Acquisition: The De-SPACed Arb

The gross spread to the redemption price is 4.8%. I'd be redeeming. Shares are beyond illiquid. Unless shares were to dip here, on some volume,...

David Blennerhassett

Beyond Student Loans

SoFi has moved away from its core business over the past three years, instead casting a wider net, extending its services to include diverse...

subSPAC

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 3/27

Tech Heavyweights Shouldering the Load- Caution Flags Waving Since the end of 2022, few and fewer big cap tech names are now carrying the overall...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

EM and DM Neobanks in 2023; Selective Opportunity Driven by Bottom-Up Execution

Neobank shareholder success stories are rare, but Nubank combines high customer activation and revenue conversion, with low cost to acquire; we...

Victor Galliano

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