Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to our view that the market remains mixed-yet-constructive overall. We explain our outlook below. </p><p>The S&amp;P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275 support holds, we expect to see 4400 followed by 4460. Should 4257 fail to hold, our next support levels to watch would be 4164 followed by 4120; we are constructive as long as 4120 holds.</p>

Our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to our view that the market remains mixed-yet-constructive overall. We explain our outlook below. The S&amp;P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275 support holds, we expect to see 4400 followed by 4460. Should 4257 fail to hold, our next support levels to watch would be 4164 followed by 4120; we are constructive as long as 4120 holds.

U.S. Equity Strategy: SPX 4400 Target In Sight

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>I'm trying to come up with some meme-able business idea so like Adam Aron (no relation) I can raise $589MM. If the SmartKarma community has any idea, I'm all ears. I'll even go with something not in terminal secular decline!</p><p>On to the weekly...Palantir's general level of ridiculousness hits another level, Twitter discovers business models invented 4-5 years ago, and work from home keeps working.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div>

I'm trying to come up with some meme-able business idea so like Adam Aron (no relation) I can raise $589MM. If the SmartKarma community has any idea, I'm all ears. I'll even go with something not in terminal secular decline!On to the weekly...Palantir's general level of ridiculousness hits another level, Twitter discovers business models invented 4-5 years ago, and work from home keeps working.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/​4/​​​​​2021 (Non-AMC Edition)

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments China is looking to continue its rout on crypto, pushing for the suspension of some crypto mining operations late last week.  Chinese Vice Premier Liu He told a group of officials that the Government would “clamp down on bitcoin mining and trading activity” to achieve financial stability.</p>

Headline Developments China is looking to continue its rout on crypto, pushing for the suspension of some crypto mining operations late last week.  Chinese Vice Premier Liu He told a group of officials that the Government would “clamp down on bitcoin mining and trading activity” to achieve financial stability.

<p>Snap is a deservedly crowded long. It had heightened expectations coming into the quarter, especially for the 2Q21 guide, which buyside expected to be a huge number given the easy comp. And Snap didn’t disappoint. The key takeaway for us about why one can (kind of) ignore valuation, which at 20x forward sales seems extremely high, is that Snap has entered the Facebook zone from 2015-2017, when the company had finally hit its stride at executing self-serve targeted direct response advertising at scale, reducing friction for advertisers to enter the platform. Facebook became part of THE online ad duopoly and started adding millions of businesses every year because of the highest ROI in online advertising, growing revenues 50%+ annually, even as it scaled from $12B to $40B in revenues because of the unlimited optionality around new ad units…and yet to be monetized massive products like Instagram. We aren’t saying Spotlight or Maps is the equivalent of Instagram, but we do think Snap has long passed the threshold of required advertising platform for large advertisers and can compound for years, even despite its meteoric rise in the past year.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Snap is a deservedly crowded long. It had heightened expectations coming into the quarter, especially for the 2Q21 guide, which buyside expected to be a huge number given the easy comp. And Snap didn’t disappoint. The key takeaway for us about why one can (kind of) ignore valuation, which at 20x forward sales seems extremely high, is that Snap has entered the Facebook zone from 2015-2017, when the company had finally hit its stride at executing self-serve targeted direct response advertising at scale, reducing friction for advertisers to enter the platform. Facebook became part of THE online ad duopoly and started adding millions of businesses every year because of the highest ROI in online advertising, growing revenues 50%+ annually, even as it scaled from $12B to $40B in revenues because of the unlimited optionality around new ad units…and yet to be monetized massive products like Instagram. We aren’t saying Spotlight or Maps is the equivalent of Instagram, but we do think Snap has long passed the threshold of required advertising platform for large advertisers and can compound for years, even despite its meteoric rise in the past year.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

SNAP 1Q21: Spotlight on Spotlight…Why Snap Is Still a Multi Bagger

<p>We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. We have said since last year that Netflix is a good relative short given the extreme pull-in of demand from COVID, and the fact that Netflix’s stock performance tracks the pace of sub growth, and the shockingly weak guidance for 2Q21 implies this stock will continue to be the #1 large cap funding short for the foreseeable future. But for how long?</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. We have said since last year that Netflix is a good relative short given the extreme pull-in of demand from COVID, and the fact that Netflix’s stock performance tracks the pace of sub growth, and the shockingly weak guidance for 2Q21 implies this stock will continue to be the #1 large cap funding short for the foreseeable future. But for how long?Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Snap Inc. provides technology and social media services. The Company develops mobile camera application products and services that allow users to send and receive photos, drawings, text, and videos. Snap serves customers worldwide.

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Snap (SNAP US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: SPX 4400 Target In Sight

The S&P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/4/2021 (Non-AMC Edition)

Palantir's general level of ridiculousness hits another level, Twitter discovers business models invented 4-5 years ago, and work from home keeps...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review #33

Headline Developments China is looking to continue its rout on crypto, pushing for the suspension of some crypto mining operations late last week. ...

Granite Bay Capital

SNAP 1Q21: Spotlight on Spotlight…Why Snap Is Still a Multi Bagger

Snap had a very strong 1Q21 and even stronger 2Q21 guidance. Despite a monster 1 year run, we think Snap is set up for a Facebook like multi-year...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix 1Q21: We Ran Out of Content

Netflix just issued its weakest guidance in years. We think subscriber growth will reaccelerate in a few quarters, making Netflix a sneaky long by...

Aaron Gabin

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Dividend (Yield)

U.S. Equity Strategy: SPX 4400 Target In Sight

The S&P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275...

Vermilion Research

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/​4/​​​​​2021 (Non-AMC Edition)

Palantir's general level of ridiculousness hits another level, Twitter discovers business models invented 4-5 years ago, and work from home keeps...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review #33

Headline Developments China is looking to continue its rout on crypto, pushing for the suspension of some crypto mining operations late last week. ...

Granite Bay Capital

SNAP 1Q21: Spotlight on Spotlight…Why Snap Is Still a Multi Bagger

Snap had a very strong 1Q21 and even stronger 2Q21 guidance. Despite a monster 1 year run, we think Snap is set up for a Facebook like multi-year...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix 1Q21: We Ran Out of Content

Netflix just issued its weakest guidance in years. We think subscriber growth will reaccelerate in a few quarters, making Netflix a sneaky long by...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/4/2021 (Non-AMC Edition)