Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<p>In this insight, we provide a detailed sensitivity analysis of the dividend payments and yields of SK Square and SK Telecom on a post split basis. </p><p><strong>SK Square</strong> - In the next 2 to 3 years, we expect SK Square to focus on growth and investments rather than on dividends. In our view, the dividend yield for SK Square is likely to be about 1.0-1.4% in the next 2-3 years. SK Square's focus is likely to be growth and investments rather than paying out high dividends. </p><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>SK Telecom</strong> - Overall, we believe that the higher probability scenario is for SK Telecom's dividend yield to become more competitive with its biggest competitor KT Corp so SK Telecom's dividend yield is likely to rise to about 4.0% to 4.5% range, in our view. For many dividend seeking investors, dividend yield of 4.0% to 4.5% combined with SK Telecom's increasing economies of scale of 5G business would be quite attractive indeed.</p>
<p>The dividend guidance that SK Telecom has provided is that the dividends for SKT (existing entity) will be within a range of 30% to 40% of its EBITDA minus CapEx. We estimate SK Telecom to have EBITDA - CapEx of 2.0 trillion won in 2021 and 2.4 trillion won in 2022.  </p>
<p>If we assume the SK Telecom will generate EBITDA - CapEx of 2.0 trillion won in 2021, a 30% of this amount would be 610.7 billion won and a 35% would be worth 712.5 billion won.</p>
</div>

In this insight, we provide a detailed sensitivity analysis of the dividend payments and yields of SK Square and SK Telecom on a post split basis. SK Square - In the next 2 to 3 years, we expect SK Square to focus on growth and investments rather than on dividends. In our view, the dividend yield for SK Square is likely to be about 1.0-1.4% in the next 2-3 years. SK Square's focus is likely to be growth and investments rather than paying out high dividends. 
SK Telecom - Overall, we believe that the higher probability scenario is for SK Telecom's dividend yield to become more competitive with its biggest competitor KT Corp so SK Telecom's dividend yield is likely to rise to about 4.0% to 4.5% range, in our view. For many dividend seeking investors, dividend yield of 4.0% to 4.5% combined with SK Telecom's increasing economies of scale of 5G business would be quite attractive indeed.
The dividend guidance that SK Telecom has provided is that the dividends for SKT (existing entity) will be within a range of 30% to 40% of its EBITDA minus CapEx. We estimate SK Telecom to have EBITDA - CapEx of 2.0 trillion won in 2021 and 2.4 trillion won in 2022.  
If we assume the SK Telecom will generate EBITDA - CapEx of 2.0 trillion won in 2021, a 30% of this amount would be 610.7 billion won and a 35% would be worth 712.5 billion won.


SK Square & SK Telecom - Sensitivity Analysis of Dividend Payments & Yields

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>In this insight, we provide 8 examples of how metaverse is revolutionizing numerous businesses in Korea. We also provide a list of Korean companies that are actively trying to expand their metaverse businesses. Because metaverse is in the initial stages of growth for many of these businesses, their contributions to their companies' sales and profits may not be meaningful right now. However, they are experiencing a significant popularity. Metaverse is certainly one of the key industry trends that is likely to have a multi-years impact on the companies mentioned in this insight.</p>
<p>The term "metaverse" was first coined by the writer Neal Stephenson in his 1992 science fiction novel <a href="https://digiday.com/marketing/wtf-is-the-metaverse/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Snow Crash </em></a>where metaverse refers to a popular virtual world where the main characters are equipped with augmented technologies. </p>
<p>Metaverse refers to a computerized domain where the users can share their virtual encounters. Still in the beginning phases of advancement, metaverse has become more important in key industries industries including technology, media, and telecom. In addition, metaverse is also impacting other major industries such as retail, gaming, and fashion. </p>
<p>Metaverse will empower its users to be more engaged in online shopping, web-based media, entertainment, and share virtual encounters. Metaverse is often considered as a "coming together" of numerous technologies including augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), 5G, smartphones, and distributed computing. Up until recently, the gaming industry has been driving the demand for metaverse. However, greater improvements in technologies have allowed metaverse to flourish in other industries as well. </p>
<p>South Korea is one of the key countries driving the metaverse industry globally. This is one of the leaders in this area and there will be numerous, interesting opportunities involving metaverse in Korea. </p>
</div>


In this insight, we provide 8 examples of how metaverse is revolutionizing numerous businesses in Korea. We also provide a list of Korean companies that are actively trying to expand their metaverse businesses. Because metaverse is in the initial stages of growth for many of these businesses, their contributions to their companies' sales and profits may not be meaningful right now. However, they are experiencing a significant popularity. Metaverse is certainly one of the key industry trends that is likely to have a multi-years impact on the companies mentioned in this insight.
The term "metaverse" was first coined by the writer Neal Stephenson in his 1992 science fiction novel Snow Crash where metaverse refers to a popular virtual world where the main characters are equipped with augmented technologies. 
Metaverse refers to a computerized domain where the users can share their virtual encounters. Still in the beginning phases of advancement, metaverse has become more important in key industries industries including technology, media, and telecom. In addition, metaverse is also impacting other major industries such as retail, gaming, and fashion. 
Metaverse will empower its users to be more engaged in online shopping, web-based media, entertainment, and share virtual encounters. Metaverse is often considered as a "coming together" of numerous technologies including augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), 5G, smartphones, and distributed computing. Up until recently, the gaming industry has been driving the demand for metaverse. However, greater improvements in technologies have allowed metaverse to flourish in other industries as well. 
South Korea is one of the key countries driving the metaverse industry globally. This is one of the leaders in this area and there will be numerous, interesting opportunities involving metaverse in Korea. 


How Is Metaverse Revolutionizing Businesses in Korea? Virtual Humans Rozy & Lucy Are Just a Start

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>Sum of the value of SK Square and SK Telecom post split</strong> - Using our base case valuations of SK Square and SK Telecom post split, the combined market caps of these two companies would be 30.2 trillion won, which is 38% higher than the current market cap of 21.9 trillion won.</p>
<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of SK Square (post split) is 48% higher than the initial  value of SK Square.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of SK Telecom (post split) is 31% higher than the initial value of SK Telecom. </li>
</ul>
</div><p>Our base case valuation of <strong>SK Square</strong> is an implied market cap of 12.8 trillion won, which would be 48% higher than the initial market cap of 8.6 trillion won for SK Square (using current market cap of 21.9 trillion won for SK Telecom and split ratio of (0.607:0.393). Our base case valuation of SK Square uses a 40% holdco discount rate. The biggest component of the NAV include SK Square's stake in SK Hynix (13.7 trillion won), ADT Caps (2.5 trillion won), and 11st (2.2 trillion won).</p><p>Our base case valuation of<strong> SK Telecom (post split)</strong> is implied market cap of 17.5 trillion won, which would be 31% higher than the initial market cap (adjusted for split ratio) of 13.3 trillion won for the company. We have used EV/EBITDA ratio of 5x using our estimated EBITDA of 4.5 trillion won for the company in 2022.</p>


Sum of the value of SK Square and SK Telecom post split - Using our base case valuations of SK Square and SK Telecom post split, the combined market caps of these two companies would be 30.2 trillion won, which is 38% higher than the current market cap of 21.9 trillion won.

Our base case valuation of SK Square (post split) is 48% higher than the initial  value of SK Square.
Our base case valuation of SK Telecom (post split) is 31% higher than the initial value of SK Telecom. 

Our base case valuation of SK Square is an implied market cap of 12.8 trillion won, which would be 48% higher than the initial market cap of 8.6 trillion won for SK Square (using current market cap of 21.9 trillion won for SK Telecom and split ratio of (0.607:0.393). Our base case valuation of SK Square uses a 40% holdco discount rate. The biggest component of the NAV include SK Square's stake in SK Hynix (13.7 trillion won), ADT Caps (2.5 trillion won), and 11st (2.2 trillion won).Our base case valuation of SK Telecom (post split) is implied market cap of 17.5 trillion won, which would be 31% higher than the initial market cap (adjusted for split ratio) of 13.3 trillion won for the company. We have used EV/EBITDA ratio of 5x using our estimated EBITDA of 4.5 trillion won for the company in 2022.

SK Square & SK Telecom - Valuation Analysis Post Split

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<p>KOSPI 200 December rebalancing's review period is May 1 to October 31.</p><h2>Adds</h2><p>Below is the list of the likely additions based on the average daily market cap from May 1 to yesterday. All of them have a pretty decent shot at joining KOSPI 200 at this point.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 adds - screening"}'>KOSPI 200 adds - screening</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Cumulative average daily market cap"}'>Cumulative average daily market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Average daily market cap ranking"}'>Average daily market cap ranking</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Cumulative average daily trading value"}'>Cumulative average daily trading value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"&gt; 15th percentile"}'>&gt; 15th percentile</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"&lt; 90.00%"}'>&lt; 90.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"&gt; 15th percentile"}'><div><div>&gt; 15th percentile</div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PI Advanced Materials Co Ltd"}'><strong>PI Advanced Materials</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":178920}'>178920</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.19436336904045193}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>19.44%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8148148148148148}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>81.48%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8313253012048193}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>83.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Myoung Shin Industrial Co Ltd"}'><strong>Myoung Shin Industrial</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"009900"}'>009900</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.18064633216832338}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>18.06%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6388888888888888}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>63.89%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9681528662420382}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>96.82%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SL Corp"}'><strong>SL Corp</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"005850"}'>005850</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.16233071177081637}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>16.23%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7222222222222222}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>72.22%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6751592356687899}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>67.52%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Meritz Financial Group Inc"}'><strong>Meritz Financial Group</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":138040}'>138040</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.18331189030260275}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>18.33%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8947368421052632}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>89.47%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6268656716417911}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>62.69%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><div class="content-highlight"><p>F&amp;F (383220), Iljin Hysolus (271940), and SD Biosensor (137310) are also meeting the inclusion screening requirements. But they do not meet the minimum listing period of 6 months, so they will not be included in the index for this rebalancing. At their current market caps, they will likely join KOSPI 200 in the June rebalancing next year.</p></div><p>Below are the passive inflow estimates for each likely addition. Meritz Financial Group and SL Corp are expected to experience significant passive inflow at 1.91x and 1.69x compared to ADTV, respectively.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 adds - passive inflow"}'>KOSPI 200 adds - passive inflow</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Estimated passive inflow"}'>Estimated passive inflow</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shares in"}'>Shares-in</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Days to buy"}'>Days to buy (est. passive inflow / ADTV)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PI Advanced Materials Co Ltd"}'><strong>PI Advanced Materials</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":178920}'>178920</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10.825840665461046}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩10.8B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":214798.42590200488}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>214,798</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9039685638683741}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>0.90x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Myoung Shin Industrial Co Ltd"}'><strong>Myoung Shin Industrial</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"009900"}'>009900</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10.991761963498126}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩11.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":427695.0180349466}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>427,695</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.30905100286068315}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>0.31x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SL Corp"}'><strong>SL Corp</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"005850"}'>005850</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":6.550051172140481}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩6.6B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":254370.91930642645}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>254,371</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.6851889200919719}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>1.69x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Meritz Financial Group Inc"}'><strong>Meritz Financial Group</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":138040}'>138040</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15.155515711760314}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩15.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":470668.18980622094}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>470,668</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.905338234034025}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>1.91x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Deletes</h2><p>Below is the list of the likely deletions based on the average daily market cap from May 1 to yesterday. Of these five candidates, the first three have a higher chance of leaving the index. Then, one of the last two (Lotte Himart or LX Hausys) will likely join the rest to leave the index.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 deletes - screening"}'>KOSPI 200 deletes - screening</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Cumulative average daily market cap"}'>Cumulative average daily market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Average daily market cap ranking"}'>Average daily market cap ranking</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Cumulative average daily trading value"}'>Cumulative average daily trading value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"&gt; 15th percentile"}'>&lt; 15th percentile</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"&gt; 110.00%"}'>&gt; 110.00%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"&gt; 15th percentile"}'><div><div>&gt; 15th percentile</div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samyang Foods Co Ltd"}'><strong>Samyang Foods</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"003230"}'>003230</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.09118900815365227}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>9.12%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.2173913043478262}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>121.74%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5416666666666667}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>54.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd"}'><strong>Ilyang Pharmaceutical</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"007570"}'>007570</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.05931317465504915}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>5.93%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.4444444444444444}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>144.44%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5614035087719298}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>56.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LX Holdings Corp"}'><strong>LX Holdings</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":383800}'>383800</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.09812342876337998}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>9.81%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>120.00%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5176470588235293}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>51.76%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LOTTE Himart Co Ltd"}'><strong>LOTTE Himart</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"071840"}'>071840</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.09733771137498692}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>9.73%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.1388888888888888}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>113.89%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5605095541401274}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>56.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LX Hausys Ltd"}'><strong>LX Hausys</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":108670}'>108670</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.10423769792069448}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>10.42%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.16}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'><strong>116.00%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6705882352941177}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>67.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>Below are the passive outflow estimates for each likely deletion. Samyang Foods and Lotte Himart will likely suffer the harshest passive outflow at 2.40x and 2.12x compared to ADTV, respectively.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI 200 deletes - passive outflow"}'>KOSPI 200 deletes - passive outflow</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Estimated passive outflow"}'>Estimated passive outflow</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shares-out"}'>Shares-out</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Days to cover"}'>Days to cover (est. passive outflow / ADTV)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samyang Foods Co Ltd"}'><strong>Samyang Foods</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"003230"}'>003230</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩4.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":46948.35680751174}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>46,948</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.3955941922623576}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>2.40x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd"}'><strong>Ilyang Pharmaceutical</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"007570"}'>007570</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5.999999999999999}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩6.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":207972.27036395145}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>207,972</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.1713189148648702}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>1.17x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LX Holdings Corp"}'><strong>LX Holdings</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":383800}'>383800</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5.999999999999999}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩6.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":673400.6734006733}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>673,401</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.7705475669560264}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>1.77x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LOTTE Himart Co Ltd"}'><strong>LOTTE Himart</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"071840"}'>071840</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩4.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":139616.05584642233}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>139,616</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.1244720753282564}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>2.12x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"LX Hausys Ltd"}'><strong>LX Hausys</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":108670}'>108670</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩8.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":108695.65217391304}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>108,696</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.2487943625014968}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>1.25x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

KOSPI 200 December rebalancing's review period is May 1 to October 31.AddsBelow is the list of the likely additions based on the average daily market cap from May 1 to yesterday. All of them have a pretty decent shot at joining KOSPI 200 at this point.









KOSPI 200 adds - screening
Ticker
Cumulative average daily market cap
Average daily market cap ranking
Cumulative average daily trading value




&gt; 15th percentile
&lt; 90.00%
&gt; 15th percentile


PI Advanced Materials
178920
19.44%
81.48%
83.13%


Myoung Shin Industrial
009900
18.06%
63.89%
96.82%


SL Corp
005850
16.23%
72.22%
67.52%


Meritz Financial Group
138040
18.33%
89.47%
62.69%

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide

F&amp;F (383220), Iljin Hysolus (271940), and SD Biosensor (137310) are also meeting the inclusion screening requirements. But they do not meet the minimum listing period of 6 months, so they will not be included in the index for this rebalancing. At their current market caps, they will likely join KOSPI 200 in the June rebalancing next year.Below are the passive inflow estimates for each likely addition. Meritz Financial Group and SL Corp are expected to experience significant passive inflow at 1.91x and 1.69x compared to ADTV, respectively.









KOSPI 200 adds - passive inflow
Ticker
Estimated passive inflow
Shares-in
Days to buy (est. passive inflow / ADTV)


PI Advanced Materials
178920
₩10.8B
214,798
0.90x


Myoung Shin Industrial
009900
₩11.0B
427,695
0.31x


SL Corp
005850
₩6.6B
254,371
1.69x


Meritz Financial Group
138040
₩15.2B
470,668
1.91x

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide

DeletesBelow is the list of the likely deletions based on the average daily market cap from May 1 to yesterday. Of these five candidates, the first three have a higher chance of leaving the index. Then, one of the last two (Lotte Himart or LX Hausys) will likely join the rest to leave the index.









KOSPI 200 deletes - screening
Ticker
Cumulative average daily market cap
Average daily market cap ranking
Cumulative average daily trading value




&lt; 15th percentile
&gt; 110.00%
&gt; 15th percentile


Samyang Foods
003230
9.12%
121.74%
54.17%


Ilyang Pharmaceutical
007570
5.93%
144.44%
56.14%


LX Holdings
383800
9.81%
120.00%
51.76%


LOTTE Himart
071840
9.73%
113.89%
56.05%


LX Hausys
108670
10.42%
116.00%
67.06%

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide

Below are the passive outflow estimates for each likely deletion. Samyang Foods and Lotte Himart will likely suffer the harshest passive outflow at 2.40x and 2.12x compared to ADTV, respectively.









KOSPI 200 deletes - passive outflow
Ticker
Estimated passive outflow
Shares-out
Days to cover (est. passive outflow / ADTV)


Samyang Foods
003230
₩4.0B
46,948
2.40x


Ilyang Pharmaceutical
007570
₩6.0B
207,972
1.17x


LX Holdings
383800
₩6.0B
673,401
1.77x


LOTTE Himart
071840
₩4.0B
139,616
2.12x


LX Hausys
108670
₩8.0B
108,696
1.25x

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide



KOSPI 200 December Rebalancing: 5 Adds/Deletes & Special Considerations

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>SK Telecom long has performed well against our short Kospi position. SKT buy call from 285k is now testing secondary breakout resistance that would open the way to new highs. Macro target remains at 373k.</p><p>A Kospi cycle low in October  will reduce the defensive appeal of SKT and see a rally stall near 340k.</p><p>We like buying SKT on a pullback in November with support at 312k.</p>

SK Telecom long has performed well against our short Kospi position. SKT buy call from 285k is now testing secondary breakout resistance that would open the way to new highs. Macro target remains at 373k.A Kospi cycle low in October  will reduce the defensive appeal of SKT and see a rally stall near 340k.We like buying SKT on a pullback in November with support at 312k.

SKT Long Gaining Traction with New High in Store

South Korea

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. is a Korean mobile and telecommunications operator. The Company provides cellular voice, wireless data, and wireless internet services. SK Telecom also offers fixed line services and platform services.

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SK Telecom (SKM US)

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