Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 2Q 2023.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 17 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
<li>We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 2Q 2023.
Of the 38 pair trades, 21 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 17 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2023

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor TOP 10 ETF saw a rapid increase in AUM in a short period. Currently, AUM has reached 126 billion won.</li>
<li>Compared to the flow size, the price movement magnitude was substantial. What is particularly important is that the correlation between weight change direction and price impact was quite significant.</li>
<li>Considering Long Short basket trading based on the weight change direction on a day trading window seems worthwhile.</li>
</ul>


Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor TOP 10 ETF saw a rapid increase in AUM in a short period. Currently, AUM has reached 126 billion won.
Compared to the flow size, the price movement magnitude was substantial. What is particularly important is that the correlation between weight change direction and price impact was quite significant.
Considering Long Short basket trading based on the weight change direction on a day trading window seems worthwhile.


Introducing Another Long Short Basket Trading Event with Semicon ETF Rebalancing in Korea

<ul>
<li>On 1 March, it was announced that Sweden's EQT will be acquiring a 68% controlling stake in SK Shieldus (393820 KS).</li>
<li>EQT Partners is controlled by Sweden's powerful Wallenberg family. EQT will invest a total amount of 2 trillion won (US$1.5 billion) in SK Shieldus.</li>
<li>Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 7.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 55,507, representing a 45% upside from current levels.</li>
</ul>


On 1 March, it was announced that Sweden's EQT will be acquiring a 68% controlling stake in SK Shieldus (393820 KS).
EQT Partners is controlled by Sweden's powerful Wallenberg family. EQT will invest a total amount of 2 trillion won (US$1.5 billion) in SK Shieldus.
Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 7.9 trillion won or NAV per share of 55,507, representing a 45% upside from current levels.


Sweden's EQT to Acquire a 68% Stake in SK Shieldus - Positive Impact on SK Square

South Korea

SK Square Co., Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company invests in semiconductors, information and communications technologies, and other industries. SK Square conducts businesses in South Korea.

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SK Square (402340 KS)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 2Q 2023. We highlight 38 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

Introducing Another Long Short Basket Trading Event with Semicon ETF Rebalancing in Korea

This post introduces the rebalancing of sector ETFs in Korea, which is not yet well known, and examines whether this event provides long-short...

Sanghyun Park

Sweden's EQT to Acquire a 68% Stake in SK Shieldus - Positive Impact on SK Square

On 1 March, it was announced that Sweden's EQT will be acquiring a 68% controlling stake in SK Shieldus (393820 KS). EQT will invest a total amount...

Douglas Kim

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