Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 1st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Great Wall Motor, China Construction Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 1st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Great Wall Motor, China Construction Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 1st): Tencent, Great Wall Motor, CCB, HKEx

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sector outlook is weak with a -20% yoy decline on sales volume expected.</li>
<li>End demand was largely brought forward in 1H2021. Lots of inventory at dealers are waiting to be sold.</li>
<li>Sinotruk’s valuation looks fair now. However we see limited positive momentum to drive its share performance this year.</li>
</ul>


Sector outlook is weak with a -20% yoy decline on sales volume expected.
End demand was largely brought forward in 1H2021. Lots of inventory at dealers are waiting to be sold.
Sinotruk’s valuation looks fair now. However we see limited positive momentum to drive its share performance this year.


Sinotruk: Inventory Overhang at Dealers and Weak End Demand Will Take Time to Clear

China's HDT (heavy duty truck) sales accelerated declining in the past two months. The reasons behind include largely brought forward demand in earlier months of this year, weak demand from commodity transportation, infrastructures and property, etc. We believe HDT demand would remain weak in 2021-2022E until the market fully digest the over-purchased trucks.Although Sinotruk kept gaining market share YTD, its monthly sales growth turned negative in July due to poor market demand. We estimate Sinostruk's market share gain could not offset the decline of sector demand. Its earnings would turn weak in 2H2021. Sinotruk's share performance was nearly halved from this year's peak. Currently it trades at 5.4x P/E 2021E on Bloomberg consensus. However, if Sinotruk's earnings down 50% yoy in 2022E in bear case, current share price might still have some downside potential.

China's HDT (heavy duty truck) sales accelerated declining in the past two months. The reasons behind include largely brought forward demand in earlier months of this year, weak demand from commodity transportation, infrastructures and property, etc. We believe HDT demand would remain weak in 2021-2022E until the market fully digest the over-purchased trucks.Although Sinotruk kept gaining market share YTD, its monthly sales growth turned negative in July due to poor market demand. We estimate Sinostruk's market share gain could not offset the decline of sector demand. Its earnings would turn weak in 2H2021. Sinotruk's share performance was nearly halved from this year's peak. Currently it trades at 5.4x P/E 2021E on Bloomberg consensus. However, if Sinotruk's earnings down 50% yoy in 2022E in bear case, current share price might still have some downside potential.

Sinotruk (3808.HK): Sluggish Sector Demand Ahead

China

Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd is a heavy truck manufacturer in China.  The company specializes in the research, development and manufacturing of heavy trucks and related key parts and components, including cabins, engines and axles.

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Sinotruk Hong Kong (3808 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 1st): Tencent, Great Wall Motor, CCB, HKEx

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Great Wall Motor, CCB, Hong Kong Exchanges And...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sinotruk: Inventory Overhang at Dealers and Weak End Demand Will Take Time to Clear

Sector outlook is weak with a -20% yoy decline on sales volume expected. End demand was largely brought forward in 1H2021. Lots of inventory at...

Victoria Li

Sinotruk (3808.HK): Sluggish Sector Demand Ahead

China's HDT (heavy duty truck) sales accelerated declining in the past two months. The reasons behind include largely brought forward demand in...

Victoria Li

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