Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 5th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, CMB, Petrochina, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 5th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, CMB, Petrochina, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 5th): CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, CMB, Petrochina, Tencent

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sinotruk pre-announced impressive net profit growth of 2x-2.4x YoY for 2023 (to RMB5.0-5.68bn), which is &gt;20% above consensus.</li><li>We believe the surprise came from the strong operating leverage.</li><li>We revise up our 2023E-25E earnings forecast substantially by 43%-52%, due to higher sales volume and, more importantly, higher operating margin. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sinotruk pre-announced impressive net profit growth of 2x-2.4x YoY for 2023 (to RMB5.0-5.68bn), which is &gt;20% above consensus.We believe the surprise came from the strong operating leverage.We revise up our 2023E-25E earnings forecast substantially by 43%-52%, due to higher sales volume and, more importantly, higher operating margin. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808 HK) – Big Surprise on 2023E Earnings; TP Raised

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post market close tomorrow, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 7 June.</li>
<li>There were no constituent changes to the index in March. We highlight ten profitable and eligible stocks that could be added to the index in June.</li>
<li>Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to inclusions for the Information Technology industry while there could also be inclusions for the underweighted Healthcare industry.</li>
</ul>


Post market close tomorrow, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 June.
There were no constituent changes to the index in March. We highlight ten profitable and eligible stocks that could be added to the index in June.
Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to inclusions for the Information Technology industry while there could also be inclusions for the underweighted Healthcare industry.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The 35% decline in China’s LNG price (due to abundant supply) along with the 4% increase in diesel price (due to strong crude price) YTD have reduced the gas/diesel price ratio to only 0.56x (0.9x in late Dec 2023).</li><li>The expanding price spread boosted the sales of natural gas HDTs substantially by 2x YoY in Mar, taking the gas HDT ratio to 25% (vs 7% in Jan).</li><li>We expect the current gas/diesel price spread could last longer than that in 2023, given the elevated crude price arising from the geopolitical tension in the Middle East. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The 35% decline in China’s LNG price (due to abundant supply) along with the 4% increase in diesel price (due to strong crude price) YTD have reduced the gas/diesel price ratio to only 0.56x (0.9x in late Dec 2023).The expanding price spread boosted the sales of natural gas HDTs substantially by 2x YoY in Mar, taking the gas HDT ratio to 25% (vs 7% in Jan).We expect the current gas/diesel price spread could last longer than that in 2023, given the elevated crude price arising from the geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Heavy Duty Truck - Expanding Gas/Diesel Price Spread to Further Boost Sales of Gas HDTs

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

China

Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd is a heavy truck manufacturer in China.  The company specializes in the research, development and manufacturing of heavy trucks and related key parts and components, including cabins, engines and axles.

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Sinotruk Hong Kong (3808 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 5th): CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, CMB, Petrochina, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, CMB, Petrochina, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM