External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We revise down our 2024E/25E earnings forecast by 5/2%, after incorporating our new industry HDT sales forecast (for details, please refer to our sector report “China Heavy-duty Truck – Headwinds in 4Q24 in both China &amp; export; Eyes on policy-driven recovery in 2025”).</li><li>We forecast ~20% YoY earnings decline in 2H24E, before recovering in 2025E. We rolled over our target valuation to 2025E, with a new TP of HK$21.4 (previously HK$19.5) which is based on 4.5x EV/EBITDA (equivalent to the historical average).</li><li>We believe the earnings downside risk has yet to be reflected in the current share price, in particular after recent rally. Maintain HOLD.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We revise down our 2024E/25E earnings forecast by 5/2%, after incorporating our new industry HDT sales forecast (for details, please refer to our sector report “China Heavy-duty Truck – Headwinds in 4Q24 in both China &amp; export; Eyes on policy-driven recovery in 2025”).We forecast ~20% YoY earnings decline in 2H24E, before recovering in 2025E. We rolled over our target valuation to 2025E, with a new TP of HK$21.4 (previously HK$19.5) which is based on 4.5x EV/EBITDA (equivalent to the historical average).We believe the earnings downside risk has yet to be reflected in the current share price, in particular after recent rally. Maintain HOLD.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808 HK) - Earnings risk not yet priced in

<ul><li>Sinotruk pre-announced impressive net profit growth of 2x-2.4x YoY for 2023 (to RMB5.0-5.68bn), which is &gt;20% above consensus.</li><li>We believe the surprise came from the strong operating leverage.</li><li>We revise up our 2023E-25E earnings forecast substantially by 43%-52%, due to higher sales volume and, more importantly, higher operating margin. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sinotruk pre-announced impressive net profit growth of 2x-2.4x YoY for 2023 (to RMB5.0-5.68bn), which is &gt;20% above consensus.We believe the surprise came from the strong operating leverage.We revise up our 2023E-25E earnings forecast substantially by 43%-52%, due to higher sales volume and, more importantly, higher operating margin. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) (3808 HK) – Big Surprise on 2023E Earnings; TP Raised

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We revise down our 2024E/25E heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales forecast by 10%/5% to 856k/ 954k units, following our cut in forecast in Aug, due to further deterioration of HDT demand over the last two months.</li><li>We now expect 5% YoY decline in HDT sales (China sales + exports) in 2024E, followed by 10%/9% recovery in 2025E/26E.</li><li>We are cautious on export market as Russia, the major market for Chinese trucks, will likely see further decline due to high base and impact of high tax recycling tax (starting in Oct).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We revise down our 2024E/25E heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales forecast by 10%/5% to 856k/ 954k units, following our cut in forecast in Aug, due to further deterioration of HDT demand over the last two months.We now expect 5% YoY decline in HDT sales (China sales + exports) in 2024E, followed by 10%/9% recovery in 2025E/26E.We are cautious on export market as Russia, the major market for Chinese trucks, will likely see further decline due to high base and impact of high tax recycling tax (starting in Oct).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Headwinds in 4Q24 in Both China & Export; Eyes on Policy-Driven Recovery in 2025

<ul><li>The HK market had a strong run over the past two weeks following the dramatic policy changes announced by the Chinese government.</li><li>In order to have a closer look at the sources of buying forces, we analysed ~13,000 data points of shareholdings over the past nine settlement days (23 Sep - 4 Oct on T+2 basis) for four HK-listed names under our coverage, namely Weichai PowerH (2338 HK, BUY), Zoomlion-H (1157 HK, BUY), SANYI (631 HK, BUY) and Sinotruk (3808 HK, HOLD). Our analysis is based on CCASS data, which represented brokers’ holdings on behalf of clients.</li><li>We divided ~380 brokers into six categories: (1) Hong Kong, (2) the Chinese mainland, (3) Stock connect, (4) the US, (5) Europe and (6) other foreign brokers (excluding the US and Europe). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The HK market had a strong run over the past two weeks following the dramatic policy changes announced by the Chinese government.In order to have a closer look at the sources of buying forces, we analysed ~13,000 data points of shareholdings over the past nine settlement days (23 Sep - 4 Oct on T+2 basis) for four HK-listed names under our coverage, namely Weichai PowerH (2338 HK, BUY), Zoomlion-H (1157 HK, BUY), SANYI (631 HK, BUY) and Sinotruk (3808 HK, HOLD). Our analysis is based on CCASS data, which represented brokers’ holdings on behalf of clients.We divided ~380 brokers into six categories: (1) Hong Kong, (2) the Chinese mainland, (3) Stock connect, (4) the US, (5) Europe and (6) other foreign brokers (excluding the US and Europe). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Who Are Buying/Selling the Sector?

<ul><li>We revise down our 2024E/25E heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry sales forecast by 11%/9% to 0.96mn / 1mn units, representing 4%/5% YoY growth.</li><li>For exports, the growth outlook is less certain given the weakness of truck sales in Russia, a major market for Chinese trucks.</li><li>We are concerned that the growth in other countries will not be able to offset the decline in Russia. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We revise down our 2024E/25E heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry sales forecast by 11%/9% to 0.96mn / 1mn units, representing 4%/5% YoY growth.For exports, the growth outlook is less certain given the weakness of truck sales in Russia, a major market for Chinese trucks.We are concerned that the growth in other countries will not be able to offset the decline in Russia. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Turning Cautious on Export Market; D/G Sinotruk to HOLD; Maintain BUY on Weichai

China

Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd is a heavy truck manufacturer in China.  The company specializes in the research, development and manufacturing of heavy trucks and related key parts and components, including cabins, engines and axles.

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Sinotruk Hong Kong (3808 HK)