Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Sustained price-strength for most grades points to tight supply-demand fundamentals.</li><li>Price-strength incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.Sustained price-strength for most grades points to tight supply-demand fundamentals.Price-strength incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 12 May

<ul><li>Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades.</li><li>Steady price levels leave arbitrage from Asia to Americas hard to work, pointing to limited surplus supply.</li><li>US Group II light-grade export prices hold in narrow range or strengthen relative to CFR India prices since start of Q2 2025.</li></ul>

Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades.Steady price levels leave arbitrage from Asia to Americas hard to work, pointing to limited surplus supply.US Group II light-grade export prices hold in narrow range or strengthen relative to CFR India prices since start of Q2 2025.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 12 May

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades.</li><li>Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to outweigh weaker-than-expected demand.</li><li>That dynamic could ease as weak demand cushions impact of recent/ongoing plant maintenance, speeds up refiners’ stock-replenishment once plants resume operations.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades.Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to outweigh weaker-than-expected demand.That dynamic could ease as weak demand cushions impact of recent/ongoing plant maintenance, speeds up refiners’ stock-replenishment once plants resume operations.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 12 May

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand likely to ease as signs of weaker-than-expected lube consumption incentivize blenders to trim inventory levels.</li><li>Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption starting in a few weeks would coincide with expected completion of wave of plant maintenance work, boosting supply.</li><li>Firm base oils margins, prospect of weaker fundamentals and low crude oil prices add to incentive to procure sufficient volumes just to meet term commitments.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand likely to ease as signs of weaker-than-expected lube consumption incentivize blenders to trim inventory levels.Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption starting in a few weeks would coincide with expected completion of wave of plant maintenance work, boosting supply.Firm base oils margins, prospect of weaker fundamentals and low crude oil prices add to incentive to procure sufficient volumes just to meet term commitments.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 May

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-petroleum-chemical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:369:1" rel="noopener">China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK)</a> broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).

PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) and China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK) broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

China

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. processes crude oil into a broad range of synthetic fibers, resins and plastics, intermediate petrochemical products and petroleum products.

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Sinopec Shanghai Petroche A (600688 CH)

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 12 May

Global base oils prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices. Sustained price-strength for most grades points to tight...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades. Steady price levels...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades. Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s base oils demand likely to ease as signs of weaker-than-expected lube consumption incentivize blenders to trim inventory levels. Prospect...

Base Oil News

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Hong Kong market broke its downtrend however it met strong resistance just above 18k. PICC and Sinopec broke to new highs relative to MSCI...

David Mudd

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