HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The real value of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinocelltech-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33456:1" rel="noopener">Sinocelltech Group (688520 CH)</a>’s pipeline will be greatly discounted because in the current context of fierce homogeneous competition, the commercialization performance of latecomers will be bleak.</li>
<li>Through frequent capital operations, in two and a half years, valuation of Sinocelltech was successfully raised by nearly 300 times. However, the Company's owner's equity is negative, with delisting risk. </li>
<li>The SSE STAR Market has been full of bubble if compared with HKEX. Sinocelltech has been severely overvalued. We think the reasonable market value of Sinocelltech is around RMB15-20 billion.</li>
</ul>


The real value of Sinocelltech Group (688520 CH)’s pipeline will be greatly discounted because in the current context of fierce homogeneous competition, the commercialization performance of latecomers will be bleak.
Through frequent capital operations, in two and a half years, valuation of Sinocelltech was successfully raised by nearly 300 times. However, the Company's owner's equity is negative, with delisting risk. 
The SSE STAR Market has been full of bubble if compared with HKEX. Sinocelltech has been severely overvalued. We think the reasonable market value of Sinocelltech is around RMB15-20 billion.


Sinocelltech Group (688520.CH) - Magical Leaps in Valuation Are Hard to Sustain

Event-Driven

Jiangxi Boya Bio Pharmaceutical / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The new round of national TCM decoction pieces VBP has started. We think the overall price reduction would be relatively mild, and the impact on related TCM enterprises is limited.</li>
<li>The NHSA will vigorously promote the expansion of TCM VBP, which is another challenge for TCM injections. But the impact on exclusive TCM varieties and innovative TCM injections is smaller.</li>
<li>CR Boya has completed the acquisition of 100% equity of Green Cross and has included it in the scope of consolidated financial statements starting from November. Future M&amp;As will continue.</li>
</ul>


The new round of national TCM decoction pieces VBP has started. We think the overall price reduction would be relatively mild, and the impact on related TCM enterprises is limited.
The NHSA will vigorously promote the expansion of TCM VBP, which is another challenge for TCM injections. But the impact on exclusive TCM varieties and innovative TCM injections is smaller.
CR Boya has completed the acquisition of 100% equity of Green Cross and has included it in the scope of consolidated financial statements starting from November. Future M&amp;As will continue.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.17) - TCM VBP New Updates, CR Boya Completes Acquisition of Green Cross

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and 6 changes for the STAR100 Index at the September rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 13 September.</li>
<li>There are no surprises for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> while there are 3 surprise adds for the STAR100 Index with the profitability criterion being ignored.</li>
<li>The adds to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> have outperformed the deletes over the last month and positioning is larger in some stocks compared to others.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the STAR50 INDEX and 6 changes for the STAR100 Index at the September rebalance that will be implemented at the close on 13 September.
There are no surprises for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) while there are 3 surprise adds for the STAR100 Index with the profitability criterion being ignored.
The adds to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) have outperformed the deletes over the last month and positioning is larger in some stocks compared to others.


STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance: Adds Rally, Deletes Drop as Positioning Builds Up

<ul>
<li>There are three constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance. One inclusion and one non-inclusion are surprises.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 2.9% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 4,075m with over 2.5x ADV to trade on all constituent changes.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few months with a jump in the last few trading sessions. There could be more outperformance over the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are three constituent changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) at the March rebalance. One inclusion and one non-inclusion are surprises.
One way turnover is estimated at 2.9% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 4,075m with over 2.5x ADV to trade on all constituent changes.
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few months with a jump in the last few trading sessions. There could be more outperformance over the next two weeks.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Three Changes a Side; One Surprise Change

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, the index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in one change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-biokin-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40027:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ninebot-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32180:1" rel="noopener">Ninebot (689009 CH)</a> in the index at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 2.18% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,065m. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-biokin-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40027:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH)</a> has moved up and there will be pre-positioning.</li>
</ul>


As expected, the index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in one change to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in December.

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH) will replace Ninebot (689009 CH) in the index at the close on 8 December.
One way turnover is estimated at 2.18% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,065m. Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH) has moved up and there will be pre-positioning.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Big Impact Expected; Inclusion Up 40% in One Month

China

Sinocelltech Group Limited develops and sells drugs. The Company develops and manufactures monoclonal antibodies, recombinant proteins, vaccines, and other products. Sinocelltech Group markets its products in China, Europe, and America.

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Sinocelltech Group (688520 CH)